Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: Reds to end losing run in this fixture

Adelaide United have lost just one of their opening 11 games this season and are second in the Australian A-League Men's standings, level on points with leaders Melbourne City who have played a match more, heading into Saturday's three fixtures. The Reds are in action in the third of those (08:35, TNT Sports 2) as they host seventh-place Melbourne Victory at Coopers Stadium, where the visitors were triumphant on their last visit in March 2024 (1-2).

Below is my Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Jordan Elsey and Bailey O'Neil are still in individual training for Adelaide United as they make their respective returns from a lengthy injury layoff. Panashe Madanha also has a watching brief on Saturday as he recovers from a hamstring problem.

The good news for head coach Carl Veart is that left-back and captain Ryan Kitto, who missed last weekend's 2-1 away win over Wellington Phoenix due to personal reasons, is back available for selection, and he's expected to replace 38-year-old Spaniard Javi Lopez in Saturday's starting XI.

Football Odds

Reno Piscopo has featured in all 12 of Melbourne Victory's ALM matches this season but is being "managed" as per the club website and hasn't been named in interim head coach Arthur Diles' squad for the trip west. Jason Geria, meanwhile, set for a move to J1 League outfit Albirex Niigata, played his final game for the club in last Friday's 4-3 defeat to Western United.

Joshua Inserra, Alexander Menelaou and Luka Kolic have all been called into the 20-man squad which will be whittled down to 18 on matchday.

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory Odds

Adelaide United haven't beaten Melbourne Victory since November 2022 but are 21/20 to end their six-game winless run against them on Saturday, which implies a win probability of 48.8%. The visitors beat the Reds 1-0 in the Australia Cup semi-finals last September and are 2/1, or a 33.3% chance, to secure a fourth straight success against Veart's side.

The draw is priced at 5/2, both teams to score - which has landed in four of the last five ALM games between these sides - at 2/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/9.

Victory forward Bruno Fornaroli (11/8) heads the anytime goalscorer market followed by Adelaide pair Archie Goodwin (7/5) and Luka Jovanovic (6/4).

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Adelaide United & Yes @ 9/4

Adelaide have only dropped points in four of their 11 league games this season and have won both they have played this calendar year, beating Macarthur and Wellington Phoenix 2-1 away from home.

It should be noted, however, that their home form is incomparable to their record on the road as they are yet to cede a point on their travels this season, winning all six games away from Coopers Stadium. At home, the Reds have won just once, beating Western United 2-1 on November 9, losing once and drawing the other three.

In their defeat, which came on December 27 against Western Sydney Wanderers, Veart's side went down 3-2 but were two up in the first 34 minutes before collapsing after Marcus Antonsson got one back for the visitors on the stroke of half-time. Three stalemates also show that the margins have been thin, so even though one win in five at Coopers is an uninspiring record, they haven't been too far away from taking all three points in any of those fixtures, taking the lead in three of them.

BTTS - Yes has been a winning bet in every United game at Coopers this season as well as 67 per cent (three) of their away contests while half (six) of Victory's ALM matches in 2024/25 have ended with at least one goal for either side.

Both teams have scored in Victory's last two games but they haven't managed to win either, drawing 2-2 at home to the Wanderers on January 4 before losing 4-3 to Western United last time out despite being 3-2 up heading into second-half stoppage time.

Victory are yet to win since previous head coach Patrick Kisnorbo walked out on the role to join J1 League club Yokohama F. Marino as their new assistant manager. Kisnorbo's number two at Victory, Diles, was handed the top job on an interim basis but is yet to oversee a win in charge, drawing three times and losing twice.

Last weekend's defeat was particularly tough to take and without Geria or Piscopo on Saturday, their first XI will look considerably weaker.

With the momentum Adelaide have already built up in 2025, I don't see Victory getting anything from this game, although they should be able to get on the scoresheet considering the Reds have kept a clean sheet just once this season, in a 1-0 win at Newcastle Jets on December 7.

Anytime Goalscorer - Ben Folami (ADL) @ 11/4

Ben Folami is goalless in 10 appearances for Adelaide since joining the Reds in the off-season from Melbourne Victory, but what a way to get off the mark it would be against his former club.

The 25-year-old, who worked his way through the youth system at English outfit Ipswich Town, spent nearly four years at Victory, featuring 47 times in the ALM and scoring six goals, two of which came in 26 competition appearances last season (excluding play-offs). Those aren't big numbers but the one-time Australia international can pose problems down the left wing and hasn't found it too difficult to create shooting opportunities for Adelaide, averaging 1.5 shots and 0.5 shots on target per game.

Of course, the likes of Goodwin, Jovanovic, Zach Clough (2/1) and Stefan Mauk (23/10) are more obvious candidates in the anytime goalscorer market but if you're looking for longer odds then Folami, up against his old side, may be worth considering.

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