Leyton Orient vs Derby County Prediction: Cup shock on the cards

League 1 Leyton Orient will fancy their chances of registering a shock this weekend as they host Championship outfit Derby County in the third round of the FA Cup. This one kicks off at 18:00 on Saturday and will be one to watch for a potential cup upset. 

Survival is the only target for Derby this season in what is a tricky Championship relegation battle, and they’ve lost their last three outings meaning they are now down in 18th place. Below you can check out my Leyton Orient vs Derby County predictions and betting tips.

Team News

With a week between fixtures, I think Leyton Orient boss Richie Wellens will name a strong team for this one, especially with the financial rewards on offer. After a wonderful run of form, Wellens was named Manager of the Month in December and will hope to carry that into 2025. 

Oliver O’Neill was forced off in the first half of the win over Shrewsbury and is likely to miss out, with Diallang Jaiyesimi the most likely candidate to start on the left wing in his place. Charlie Kelman and Jamie Donley will want to be given a chance to prove themselves against Championship opposition and should both start, with Donley scoring the winner in the 1-0 success over Shrewsbury last time out. 

Football Odds

Sean Clare is pushing to get back into the defence, but after a clean sheet, we could just see the one enforced change for Wellens, as he looks to keep this outstanding run of form going. 

For Derby, survival in the league is the priority and as a result, I think we will see far more rotation from Paul Warne. I’d expect Josh Vickers to start in goal, with Joe Ward and Tom Barkhuizen also in need of minutes. Sonny Bradley departed for Wycombe on loan this week so options at centre-back are slightly limited, but Craig Forsyth could come into the back four. 

Dajaune Brown and James Collins will tussle it out for the starting spot up front, while Ben Osborn could come into the midfield. The attacking areas could see a refresh, with plenty of talent on the bench in need of playing time.

Leyton Orient vs Derby County Odds

Leyton Orient are priced at 21/10 to win this game and although that may seem relatively short given the gap between the teams, they haven’t lost since November 26. Derby remain the favourites to take the win in 90 minutes at 7/5, giving them an implied win probability of 41%. 

A draw can be backed at 11/5, while over 2.5 goals is 6/5 having come in during 46% of Derby’s league matches so far. BTTS is 5/6 and Jerry Yates is the favourite to score first at 13/2. 

Leyton Orient to win @ 21/10

I fancy an upset on Saturday in this fixture. Leyton Orient sit top of the form table in League 1 over the past six games having won five and drawn one during that time period. Wellens has galvanised his squad over the festive period and they are now knocking on the door of the play-offs, which marks further progress for this club. 

These two are on the opposite ends of the scale in terms of form. While Orient are flying high having won nine of their last 10 matches in all competitions, Derby are sliding towards the bottom three in the Championship. The Rams have lost four of their last five and it feels like the cup simply isn’t one of their priorities this term. I’m happy to back a home win in 90 minutes.

Leyton Orient to keep a clean sheet @ 9/4

Orient’s defence has been a big reason as to why they have gone on this terrific run of form. They’ve kept seven clean sheets in their last eight games, with the 3-2 win at Bristol Rovers the only exception in recent months. They’ve conceded just 22 goals in 24 games, with Ethan Galbraith, Omar Beckles, Jack Simpson and Jack Currie making up an extremely combative and impressive back four. 

With Derby likely to rotate, I can see Orient putting in another defensive showing that ultimately leads to success. I think the home side can keep another clean sheet at decent odds, while a win to nil is also worth considering for this FA Cup clash. Wellens has got this team ticking, and I expect more success this weekend.

Offers

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