Newcastle Falcons vs Harlequins Prediction: Quins can close gap on top four with victory

Friday night’s sole offering from the Gallagher Premiership sees two sides in need of a change in fortunes as bottom-of-the-table Newcastle Falcons welcome seventh-placed Harlequins to Kingston Park (19:45, TNT Sports 1).

The Falcons have won just two league matches this season - two more than the entirety of last campaign - and are the lowest home league scorers in the division. Friday’s visitors meanwhile head into this contest seven points off of Saracens in fourth and they will be desperate to claim a victory to close the gap on the play-off positions. Read on for my Newcastle Falcons vs Harlequins prediction, alongside team news and match odds.

Team News

Newcastle boss Steve Diamond has made two changes to the XV that started the heavy 61-0 defeat to reigning Premiership champions Northampton Saints last time out.

Jamie Blamire replaces Ollie Fletcher at hooker, who drops to the bench alongside Louis Brown who makes way at full-back for Ben Redshaw.

There is also a landmark appearance for prop Richard Palframan who makes his 50th runout for the club.

Rugby Union Odds

Harlequins head coach Danny Wilson meanwhile makes three alterations to the side that began the 34-34 draw at home to Leicester Tigers.

Joe Launchbury comes in for Irne Herbst in the second row while the second scrum change sees Will Evans partner Jack Kenningham at flanker, with James Chisholm moving to number eight as Alex Dombrandt makes way.

The one alteration amongst the backs comes at scrum-half as Danny Care misses out on the matchday squad, with Will Porter re-taking the number nine jersey.

Newcastle Falcons vs Harlequins Odds

Harlequins may be the visitors but they are still the heavy favourites for success at 2/11, giving them an implied win probability of 84.6%, whereas the Falcons are 4/1 to claim only their third victory of the campaign.

The draw provides odds of 22/1, while the Quins are also 7/5 with a -16 handicap.

Harlequins -13 handicap @ 1/1

Harlequins managed to end their two-match losing run in the Premiership with an entertaining tie at home to the Leicester Tigers and they can kick on from this result by beating Newcastle on Friday.

Newcastle have picked up just eight points this season and have scored a measly 69 points in front of their own fans, while only Bristol (141) have conceded more points at home than the Falcons (136).

The Quins boast an impressive recent record over the Falcons, winning each of their last eight head-to-head meetings - including a 28-14 victory at Twickenham Stoop in September earlier this season.

Five of the last six of these victories have come via a margin of at least 12 points and so the Quins could provide some value in the -13 handicap market.

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