Sporting CP vs Benfica Prediction: Eagles to win the corners battle is the way to go

It’s a big clash in the Portuguese Superliga this weekend as the early leaders host the current leaders in what can be considered the biggest game of the season so far.  The match will kick off at 20:30 UK time but we do not have a live UK broadcast partner for this one...

Jamie Pacheco thinks Benfica should grab at least a point in a game with goals at both ends, and that the Eagles can also win the corners battle, as outsiders.  Check out his Sporting CP vs Benfica Predictions in his full match preview right here on Betfred Insights...

Sporting Lisbon  

You'd think that if there hadn't been an early change of manager at Sporting this season, they'd be at least six or seven points ahead by now.  

But there was, and they're not. Joao Pereira, who may not be around for much longer if rumours are to be believed, replaced Ruben Amorim just under a month ago and has seriously struggled. In four league games since Amorim's exit to Manchester United, they've managed just one win, one draw and two defeats which explains why from a position of strength at the top of the table, they're now tied with Porto and one point behind Benfica.  

A defeat here could mean the end of the road for Pereira, but a good win could change all that. So plenty on the line here. No major absences to speak of except for forward Pote, who will still be out for a few more weeks.  

Possible XI:  Israel, Zebast, Diomande, Quaresma, Reis, Hjulmand, Catamo, Quenda, Gyokeres, Trincao, Edwards.  

Benfica 

Benfica have gone off the boil in the Champions League after a good start there but the same can't be said of their exploits in the league. They've now won 10 of their last 11, the odd on out being a 0-0 draw at AVS a couple of weeks ago. But they're top going into this one and have recovered extremely well after a slow start.   

Part of the secret to their success is that they've shared the goals around.  14 different players have scored in the league so far and three of them - Kerem Arturkoglu, Zeki Amdouni and Angel di Maria - have scored six or more goals so far in the Superliga.   

Norwegian Fredrik Aursnes, who can play in several different positions, is the only major doubt and we're unlikely to know till very close to the time whether he makes it or not.  

Possible XI: Trubin, Carreras, Silva, Bah, Araujo, Aursnes/Florentino, Kokcu, Beste, Di Maria, Pavlidis, Arturkoglu.  

Sporting SP vs Benfica Odds

Sporting are 6/4, which is implied probability of 40%. The draw is 12/5 (29.4%) and Benfica are 13/8 (38%). 

First impressions have to be that Sporting look too short. If this were the Sporting of five weeks ago, sure. But it's not. It's one who has taken just four points from a possible 12 and are playing with far less confidence and nous than they were under Amorim.  

And it's not Sporting's recent record in this fixture that is going to make us think we're missing something here because that's not great, either. They won it at Alvalade last year, drew the year before that and lost in 2022, so it's pretty much honours even in that regard.  

Double Chance + Both Teams to Score  

There's little or nothing wrong with the 8/15 that Benfica can avoid defeat here. They've been far better than their hosts these last few weeks and if it comes down to a tactical battle, you'd think Benfica boss Buno Lage would have the upper hand.  

But a better value bet might be to add BTTS to the equation and take Benfica to avoid defeat. Viktor Gyokeres alone will be giving Benfica's defenders plenty to think about and this is a fixture where goals have flowed of late, so it makes plenty of appeal. Benfica/Draw on the Double Chance market with both team scoring it is, at 5/4.  

Most Corners  

The prices on which team will get the most corners in an interesting one.  

Sporting are 9/10, with Benfica 13/10 and it's 6/1 they'll get the same amount.  

The fact that Sporting won the corners battle in 6/7 of their home fixtures this season helps to explain why they're that sort of price, fine. And their numbers have been particularly good these last few matches when at home, which were: 12-2 (against Estrela), 8-2 (Santa Clara) and Boavista (10-1). 

But interestingly, Benfica have managed to be even better than that away from home when it comes to corners.  Seven away matches, seven victories on the corners battle with some of those being pretty comfortable wins. For example: 8-3, 6-5, 3-0 and 11-4 in recent weeks.  

So this very much looks like s case of 'something's gotta give' in what looks like a coin toss to me. And when that's the case, taking the bigger price is always the way to go. And that's obviously on Benfica.

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Football Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Football hub page...