Burnley vs Watford Prediction: Another home clean sheet?

Burnley are on the march, and are now four points off the top of the Championship having lost just two matches all season. Their phenomenal defence is the focal point, and they will be put to the test again this weekend against play-off chasers Watford. The Hornets visit Turf Moor on Saturday afternoon (15:00) hoping to continue their six-game unbeaten run that has taken them up to seventh in the Championship.

This should be a good contest, and below you can find my Burnley vs Watford predictions featuring team news and betting tips.

Team News

Burnley’s big worry heading into this weekend is the fitness of star centre-back Maxime Esteve. He’s the best defender in the Championship for me, but had to be withdrawn after just 14 minutes at Carrow Road with what appeared to be a dead leg. He posted on Instagram saying he ‘hoped’ to be back for this weekend, but that will be a decision for Scott Parker and his medical staff to make.

In the absence of Conor Roberts through illness, Bashir Humphreys switched to right-back, but given Roberts is expected to return, Humphreys should start in the middle alongside CJ Egan-Riley if Esteve doesn't make it, with John Egan an experienced back-up if needed. Josh Cullen and Josh Brownhill should continue at the heart of midfield, leaving Josh Laurent on the bench, with Jeremy Sarmiento now the number one choice to play behind the striker. 

Has Zian Flemming’s stunning goal against Norwich done enough to earn him a start above Jay Rodriguez? Quite possibly. Mike Tresor, Manuel Benson and Lyle Foster are now on the brink of returns, which will only add to Parker’s selection headache at the top end of the pitch.

For Watford, coming off the back of a win, things are looking bright and they are only without Angelo Ogbonna and Tom Dele-Bashiru through injury. Vakoun Bayo is on fire and scored another two goals last time out, so he will lead the line in this one ahead of an exciting midfield five. 

Rocca Vata is emerging as a star on the left and along with Giorgi Chakvetadze Watford now have two impressive dribblers of the ball that link up well together. Imran Louza and Moussa Sissoko will take on the defensive responsibility in that midfield, while the back four should also remain unchanged, with Matthew Pollock and Ryan Porteous creating a nice partnership at the back. After a win over West Brom, Cleverley could be tempted to stick with what worked. 

Burnley vs Watford Odds

Burnley are priced at 8/13 to win this game, having won five and drawn five of their 10 home games so far this term. Watford are available at 4/1 to secure their third away win of the campaign, and a draw can be backed at 13/5. 

Over 2.5 goals came in for only the fourth time for Burnley this season as they beat Norwich City 2-1 last time out, but they still have the lowest success rate in the league for that particular stat at 19%. That is priced at 1/1, while BTTS is the same price here. Rodriguez is 5/1 to open the scoring at Turf Moor. 

Burnley to win to nil @ 6/4

The same selection I’ve picked out so many times this season already. But if something is working, why change it? Burnley just don’t concede many goals, especially at home, and I do think they are stronger than Watford on paper. I’ve been incredibly impressed with the Hornets this season, and they have some fantastic players to keep an eye on, but they are overperforming in my opinion in terms of their position in the table.

Against a team like Burnley, you just don’t get many chances. They’ve only conceded three goals in ten Turf Moor matches this season, and I can see them shutting out a Watford outfit who have failed to score away from home in four of their last seven away trips. 

Burnley 2-0 Watford @ 6/1

I think we can plump for a correct score on this occasion, searching for longer odds than the 6/4 on offer for the hosts to win to nil. Parker’s men keep clean sheets, but don’t tend to tear teams apart at will so I think this will be another decent display as Watford are kept at arm’s length. With Flemming and Rodriguez battling it out to lead the line, and so much quality in the positions behind the striker, I think Burnley can secure a 2-0 win. 

They’ve beaten both Stoke City and Coventry City by this very scoreline in recent weeks, and it’s one that I’d really enjoy as a manager. No chaos, but just a calm, measured way to pick up points at this level. Burnley don’t put themselves under much pressure this season, and another home win to nil is just what the doctor ordered for their promotion push. 

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