Toulon vs Glasgow Prediction: Hosts can edge tight affair

Glasgow Warriors made a perfect start to their European Champions Cup campaign last weekend as they hit Sale Sharks for double scores at Scotstoun, but head coach Franco Smith knows his charges are in for a more searching test when they travel to France to face Toulon on Sunday afternoon (15:15).

Read on for my Toulon vs Glasgow prediction, featuring the latest odds and team news.

Toulon vs Glasgow Odds

Toulon are 4/11 to win on home soil and the visiting Warriors can be backed at 23/10, while the draw is a 20/1 chance. The home side are 1/1 conceding an eight-point start to Glasgow.

The Warriors outscored Toulon five tries to one when they last met in Scotstoun in January, though the mercurial Jones ran the show that day and is missing now.

Team News

The URC champions began their European campaign with an impressive win over Sale, but the starting XV in France will show seven changes, with head coach Smith intent on being in a position to challenge late in the contest.

Zander Fagerson, Scott Cummings, Matt Fagerson, George Horne and Tom Jordan are all benched, while centre Huw Jones and winger Sebastian Cancelliere are absent.

In the forwards, Sam Talakai replaces Zander Fagerson in the front row, Alex Samuel takes over from Cummings in the second row and Jack Mann comes in for Matt Fagerson as Henco Venter shifts to blindside flanker.

Ben Afshar starts over last weekend's player of the match George Horne, while Duncan Weir is the starting fly-half.

Stafford McDowall partners captain Sione Tuipulotu in the centres in place of Jones, while Jamie Dobie is on the wing in place of Cancelliere.

For Toulon, Jean-Baptiste Gros (thigh), Swan Rebbadj (foot), Duncan Paia'aua (thigh), Ben White (calf) and Esteban Abadie (thigh) remain unavailable.

Antoine Frisch and Gael Drean are ruled out after the Stormers win and Dan Biggar suffered a concussion in Cape Town and sits this game out.

First-Half Handicap - Toulon -4.5 @ 1/1

The seven changes from Glasgow caused some raised eyebrows this week when Smith named his side, with the media pondering if he was trying to emulate the Springboks famed 'bomb squad' in the hopes of hitting Toulon hard with an explosion of power from the bench in the second half.

Smith admitted that his 'philosophy is to pick the players that are going to be on the field in the last 20 minutes first', before challenging the players that have been named to start to come in and make the most of their chance.

The squad rotation may or may not work and it remains to be seen if Glasgow's strong finishing ideas pay off.

Toulon won't be stunned by the tactic, however, and the French side will be keen to get the scoreboard ticking over early on.

They are worth backing to lead by five or more at the turnaround before Smith unleashes his second-half reinforcements.

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