Exeter vs Toulouse Prediction: Champions can punish Chiefs

Holders Toulouse began their Champions Cup defence with a bang by outclassing Ulster 61-21 and they could record a similar victory at Exeter Chiefs on Sunday (17:30).

Read on for my Exeter vs Toulouse prediction, featuring the odds and team news at time of publication.

Exeter vs Toulouse Odds

Exeter are 17/2 to win, as was the case in the duo's only previous clash at Sandy Park in 2020, while Toulouse are 1/18 and the tie 28/1.

Team News

Exeter have made five changes from the side that started the defeat to Sharks. Props Will Goodrick-Clarke and Ehren Painter make the run-on side, while Rusi Tuima comes into partner Richard Capstick in the second row.

Ross Vintcent will start at number eight and England centre Henry Slade gets the nod at number 10.

There is also a boost on the bench with Wales captain Dafydd Jenkins included in the matchday 23 for the first time this season and he is joined by club captain Jack Yeandle, who is the reserve hooker.

Toulouse have made four alterations. Prop Rodrigue Neti and France hooker Julian Marchand come into the pack, as does Les Bleus flanker Francois Cros.

Behind the scrum, Argentina utility back Juan Cruz Mallia starts on the right wing, replacing Ange Capuozzo, while Scotland star Blair Kinghorn could make an impact off the bench.

Toulouse -20 handicap @ 21/20

Last April's match provides a good reference point to assess this game and although Toulouse are on offer at -23, it might be safer to avoid getting greedy and settling for -20.

Ulster were underpowered last Sunday and improved when they introduced their returning internationals.

However, Les Rouge et Noir potentially took pity on their opponents, easing off from the intensity they showed in the opening half.

The Premiership Rugby Cup aside, Exeter are still to win this season. They came close in their 19-15 defeat at Bath on November 30 and kept it respectable in Durban against a Springbok-loaded Sharks side.

Rob Baxter's side can also gain confidence from having Slade back from the start and Jenkins to call on from the bench.

Those two are quality performers, but not on the same level as their Toulousain opponents, whose nine-10-15 playmaking axis of Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack and Thomas Ramos is arguably the best on the planet.

With a superior pack and a clinical back-line, Toulouse could run riot early on but fall off again in the second half and not quite hit the heights of last season's 38-point victory.

A handy win for the champions appears to be the likely outcome, but the Chiefs could show more spirit after the interval.

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