Benfica vs Bologna Prediction: Eagles to swoop early in Champions League tie

It’s Benfica v Bologna on Wednesday night, live on TNT Sports 6 from 20:00. This is a big game for the Lisbon side who need to secure ‘easy’ points while they can with Barcelona and Juventus up next.   

Jamie Pacheco thinks Benfica will score early and that the prolific Arturkoglu could be among the goals again, introducing an unusual betting strategy to exploit that. Check out what and why below as part of his Benfica vs Bologna Predictions and match preview for us here at Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Benfica 

Last time out in Europe, Benfica fought back to beat Monaco 3-2 after being 1-0 and 2-1 down and it's a turnaround that could make a huge difference to their chances of qualifying for the next round.  

They're currently 14th in the Champions League table and know this is a must-win match with Barcelona and Juventus up next. The latter may not currently be at their best but going to Turin and getting a result is easier said than done in any circumstances, so they need to make the most of this one and see where they are for the remainder of the campaign.  

They're currently on a good run on all fronts with five straight wins since going 1-0 in Munich; three in the league, one in the Cup and that win in Monaco, so their form is good.  

At the weekend they beat Guimaraes 1-0 in one of their less convincing displays.  Guimaraes had more shots and corners, so they'll just be thankful for the points and probably had an eye on this match anyway. Manager Bruno Lage has pretty much a full squad of players to choose from.  

Possible XI:  Trubin, Carreras, Otamendi, Araujo, Bah, Kokcu, Florentino, Aursnes, Di Maria, Pavlidis, Arturkoglu. 

Bologna  

It's been a real struggle for Bologna in their debut season in the Champions League. Matches against Shakhtar Donetsk, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Monaco and Lille yielded just one point courtesy of a draw at Donetsk first up and qualification to the next round is now impossible.  

Things aren't much better on the domestic front where they currently sit in eight after that excellent finish last season.  

Maybe none of this should come as too much of a surprise. So much of what they did well last season was down to manager Thiago Motta, who moved to Juventus in the summer and much like with Ruben Amorim and Sporting, Bologna are quickly finding out the cost of losing their boss. Not that Motta's results at Juventus have been anything special, by the way.  

Still, there's been some improvement in recent weeks for Bologna, beating Venezia 3-0 in the league, Monza 4-0 in the Cup and then drawing 2-2 again in Serie A with none other than Juve, having been 2-0 up.  

Possible XI: Skorupski, Holm, Lucumi, Beukema, Miranda, Freuler, Ndoye, Tobega, Odgaard, Dominguez, Castro.  

Benfica vs Bologna Odds

Somewhat unsurprisingly, these two have never met in official competition, unsurprising because Bologna have only very rarely played in Europe over the years. So, we certainly have no head-to-head data to go by.  

Benfica are 4/7, implied probability of 63.6%; Bologna are 9/2 (18.2%) and the draw is 16/5, or 23.8%.  

The prices look right. Benfica have nine points on the board, Bologna one. Benfica have been superb on the domestic front, Bologna mediocre.  

Benfica should win this. Despite that slim 1-0 at the weekend, their matches are generally good for goals so Benfica to win and both teams to score (21/10) or Benfica to win and over 2.5 goals (13/10) are two ways of going with the home win at bigger odds. But we can find better bets.  

Result after 30 minutes  

Such as this one. You can get 13/8 that Benfica will be leading after 30 minutes and that looks a more attractive option than those two just mentioned.  

In two of their three Champions League wins so far (Red Star/Atletico Madrid) they were up after 30 minutes, a pattern that stood firm for four of their next four wins, the odd one out being that come-from-behind win against Monaco.  

Against Porto, Estrela, Arouca and Guimaraes in the last month, they were up at the half-hour mark in all of them. They like an early goal at the Estadio da Luz, and they might just get one, or two. Either way, it looks a good wager.

First Goalscorer/ To Score Anytime  

Kerem Arturkoglu was back among the goals at the weekend after five matches without scoring, something of a dry spell by his standards.  

What's interesting about him is that he has a knack for opening the scoring in addition to just scoring.  

Remarkably, in five of the seven matches in which he's scored this season, he was first goalscorer, so like Benfica themselves, he likes to make his mark early in the game. 

The strategy here is to split stakes between him being first goalscorer (5/1) and to score anytime (8/5). If he's first scorer, you'll be paid on both bets; if he 'just' scores, you'll still be in profit.

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Football Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Football hub page...