UFC 310 Predictions: Asakura could strike it lucky in Las Vegas

UFC 310 heads to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for a stacked card of action this Saturday, December 7. The UFC Flyweight Championship is on the line in the main event as titlist Alexandre Pantoja meets Kai Asakura. TNT Sports will carry the event live.

Here are my UFC 310 predictions ahead of this pay-per-view extravaganza.

Alexandre Pantoja v Kai Asakura

You have to be a special fighter to get a UFC title shot on your promotional debut. Dana White is backing Asakura, a “bad boy” according to the UFC CEO, to impress on his promotional bow. White went on to say that Asakura’s skills and exploits mean he has no need to “come in and be tested” before taking on the champion.

Asakura is 21-4 with two Rizin Fighting Federation bantamweight titles under his belt. A huge star in his native Japan, this is a calculated gamble by the UFC. If the Japan Top Team athlete loses, you have chipped away at the aura of the new boy on day one.

Pantoja is a dominant flyweight making the third defence of his title. Wins over Manel Kape, Brandon Moreno, Brandon Royval and Steve Erceg show his quality. The latter bout was mightily close and some felt the champion should have lost. But in my view he did enough to keep the belt.

I don’t think he’ll keep the title here, though. While Asakura is a 15/8 underdog, I believe we’re in for a special debut indeed. This could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship between the Japanese star and the UFC.

Shavkat Rakhmonov v Ian Machado Garry

This welterweight eliminator is a rare treat for UFC fans. A big fight between two men who are unbeaten. MMA doesn’t lend itself to the cultivation of an ‘0’ in the same way that boxing does, so match-ups between undefeated fighters with genuine stakes are uncommon.

Those stakes could not be higher here, with the winner securing a shot at UFC Welterweight Champion Belal Muhammad. Everything to play for in Vegas.

Rakhmonov is yet to meet an opponent he couldn’t finish. Of his 18 victories, Geoff Neal, Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny are among the eight men he has submitted. His remaining 10 opponents have all been knocked out. Wherever the fight goes, Rakhmonov knows how to end it early.

Garry can match his opponent, at least on his feet. The Irishman has stopped seven of his opponents by knockout or TKO. He has one submission and seven decisions comprising the rest of his 15-0 record. If this goes to the cards, it seems like it would favour Garry.

I don’t think it gets there. I’m picking Rakhmonov by submission in this outing at 13/8.

Ciryl Gane vs Alexander Volkov

My personal favourite fight on this tasty night of action is this battle of the heavyweights. It features perennial nearly-man Gane and the in-form Volkov. This is the second meeting between the pair, with Gane having taken a unanimous decision over five rounds back in 2021.

A lot has changed since that first fight. Gane has held the UFC Interim Championship, knocking out Derrick Lewis. In a fun piece of symmetry, Lewis knocked Volkov out in 2018.

Gane has also lost two shots at the main UFC title, being stopped by Francis Ngannou and submitted by Jon Jones. What does that do to a man’s desire? To see his dream ripped out from under him on two separate occasions? We may find out.

While Gane is 2-2 in his last four, Volkov is on a run of four victories. Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Romanov, Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich have all succumbed to the Russian. It is his best run of form since winning his first four UFC fights between 2016 and 2018.

I think that hot streak comes to an end on Saturday night, though. I’m picking Gane to make it two decision wins from two fights against Volkov. If you agree you can back my selection at 4/6.

Main Card

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry

Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov

Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie

Nate Landwehr vs. Choi Doo-ho

Preliminary Card

Dominick Reyes vs. Anthony Smith

Vicente Luque vs. Themba Gorimbo

Movsar Evloev vs. Aljamain Sterling

Randy Brown vs. Bryan Battle

Early Preliminary Card

Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders

Cody Durden vs. Joshua Van

Michael Chiesa vs. Max Griffin 

Clay Guida vs. Chase Hooper

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Łukasz Brzeski

You can find all our latest UFC betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights UFC page