Aston Villa vs Southampton Prediction: Slow starters to play out first half stalemate

After five Premier League matches without a win - eight games in all competitions - Aston Villa ended their miserable run in emphatic style on Wednesday, beating Brentford 3-1 at home - scoring all three goals inside the first 35 minutes. Back-to-back league victories for the first time since September are now in their sights and with a beleaguered Southampton next up at Villa Park on Saturday (15:00), another success is easily achievable for Unai Emery's side.

Read on for my Aston Villa vs Southampton prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Emiliano Martinez passed a late fitness test to start the midweek match against the Bees and the two-time Yashin Trophy winner came through that victory unscathed, so he should be nailed on to play on Saturday.

Tyrone Mings was preferred at centre-back to Pau Torres, who may have just been rested, but with the Villans producing a more assured defensive display, there may be a temptation on the part of Emery to stick with the same backline this weekend.

Leon Bailey also came into the starting XI in place of Jaden Philogene and the Jamaican winger is in line for back-to-back starts, with an unchanged lineup a very real possibility. Torres and Ross Barkley are options if Emery does decide to freshen things up, but Jacob Ramsey and Amadou Onana are still out injured.

Football Odds

Southampton were depleted for their 5-1 home hammering by Chelsea on Wednesday with Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Flynn Downes and Tyler Dibling - three key first-teamers - all suspended after picking up their fifth yellow cards of the campaign in last Friday's 1-1 draw at Brighton & Hove Albion.

The good news for head coach Russell Martin is that the trio are back available this weekend, with all three likely to be thrust straight back into the starting XI, but Jack Stephens won't be joining them after receiving his marching orders in the first half of their defeat in midweek for pulling Marc Cucurella's hair. As it is Stephens' second dismissal of the season, he is set to serve a four-game ban.

Martin had teased the potential returns of Paul Onuachu and Jan Bednark prior to their St Mary's Stadium pummelling on Wednesday but neither striker nor defender was in the matchday squad, so it will be interesting to see whether both, or either, making Saturday's 20-man list.

Aaron Ramsdale, Gavin Bazunu, Adam Lallana, Ross Stewart and Will Smallbone remain injured for the Saints, but Chelsea loanee Lesley Ugochukwu is available for selection again after being ineligible to play his parent club earlier in the week, although the French midfielder has been out of favour on the South Coast anyway.

Aston Villa vs Southampton Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Aston Villa vs Southampton page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Aston Villa are big favourites at 4/11 to triumph at Villa Park for the second time in a week on Saturday, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 73.3%, while Southampton are 13/2, or a 13.3% chance, to secure their first league victory on the road this season.

The draw is priced at 9/2, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/9.

Ollie Watkins, who scored a penalty against former side Brentford on Wednesday, is 10/11 favourite to net anytime this weekend, while Onuachu and Adam Armstrong (both 11/4) are considered the Saints' most likely scorer.

Half-time/Full-time - Draw/Aston Villa @ 100/30

Aston Villa have a very ordinary first-half record this season and are particularly poor starters at home, while Southampton are officially the Premier League's slowest starters overall and on their travels, so it will be interesting to see how both teams fare in the first 45 minutes on Saturday.

The Villans are 11th in the Premier League first-half table after leading at the interval on just four occasions this season, while they have been behind in five of their 14 matches.

At home, Emery's side have only been in front at half-time once - and that was earlier this week against Brentford. In fact, only Ipswich Town (five) have a worse first-half record in terms of points than Villa, who would only have six points to their name if games were decided in the opening period.

Southampton, meanwhile, would have seven points if only first halves counted, but only one of those points would be from their away games as they have been behind at the break in six of their seven away outings to date.

The Saints were 3-1 down at the halfway stage against Chelsea in midweek which doesn't bode well ahead of a trip to another side in European competition this season, Villa, who are actually playing two levels up on the Blues in the Uefa Champions League.

However, the Villans are notorious slow-starters themselves and I'm not getting carried away despite seeing how they eased to victory over Brentford on Wednesday.

I do think Saturday's hosts will emerge relatively comfortable winners, triumphing by either a goal or two, but Saints could hold them off until half-time, particularly with a raft of key first-teamers to come back into the starting XI, such as Harwood-Bellis and Dibling.

Player to Receive a Card - Lucas Digne (AVL) @ 4/1

I'm fully expecting Dibling to be restored to the right-hand side of Southampton's attack, which could spell danger for Villa left-back Lucas Digne. The 31-year-old Frenchman will have his work cut out to contain the precocious Saints teenager on Saturday if recent performances are anything to go by.

Dibling tormented the Brighton defence on his last appearance, winning six free-kicks, and he earned a penalty in Southampton's previous match after drawing a foul from Liverpool left-back Andy Robertson, who managed to escape a caution at St Mary's. The Saints winger has been fouled an average of 2.2 times per Premier League game this season and his direct running could create problems for Villa's defenders this weekend, in particular Digne, who is likely to be his direct opponent.

Digne is averaging a foul per game in 2024/25 and has been booked three times, while he was yellow carded on seven occasions last season, evidence of his tenacity that can sometimes spill over.

At 4/1, I think the France international is an enticing price to receive a card on Saturday up against Dibling & Co.

Offers

Build your own Bet Builder bet (3/1+) of 4+ legs on any Premier League game on Saturday and get 50% of your stake back in Free Bets up to £5 if you lose. (Credited within 24 hours)

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any Premier League or Championship game on Friday or Saturday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Sunday’s games. (Credited upon Bet Settlement)

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.