Leeds United vs Derby County Prediction: Big home win on the cards

Leeds United lost top spot after a defeat to Blackburn Rovers last time out, and now they are playing catch-up to close the gap on both Sheffield United and Burnley. On Saturday, they host Derby County at Elland Road (12:30, Sky Sports Football), looking to extend their impressive home record. 

Meanwhile, Derby have lost back-to-back home matches and this looks like another tough test for Paul Warne’s side. Below you can find my Leeds United vs Derby County predictions featuring team news and betting tips. 

Team News

Leeds received a major boost last weekend as they welcomed back Largie Ramazani to the matchday squad, and he came off the bench at Ewood Park. It may still be too early for him to start but he’s now back in contention, to provide competition for Dan James, Willy Gnonto and Manor Solomon. 

Daniel Farke is certainly well-stocked in that area of the pitch, and I feel over December we could see more rotation up front, as Joel Piroe continues to be his number one choice. He preferred Mateo Joseph at the start of the season, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he is given another start, while Patrick Bamford has been handed more minutes off the bench in recent weeks. 

Joe Gelhardt is on his way back from a hip injury but is likely to take a few more weeks to be back in a matchday squad while the big midfield absentees - Ilia Gruev and Ethan Ampadu - are targeting January returns. For now, Joe Rothwell and Ao Tanaka will continue in midfield, while the back four of Jayden Bogle, Pascal Struijk, Joe Rodon and Junior Firpo should remain unchanged. 

For Derby, that late home defeat to Sheffield Wednesday will have really stung. Jerry Yates missed two key opportunities but is likely to start up front again, while I’d expect Kayden Jackson to come back into the starting XI on the right-hand side. Tom Barkhuizen offers another midfield option for Warne to consider, while Ebou Adams scored his second goal of the season against Wednesday in an impressive overall performance. 

Nat Phillips could replace Curtis Nelson at centre-back while Callum Elder offers more experience at full-back. Against this Leeds team, I wouldn’t be surprised if Warne switches to a back five, bringing Phillips into the heart of defence in an attempt to stifle their attacking threats. David Ozoh, Ryan Nyambe and Tawanda Chirewa all remain on the road to recovery, with the trio targeting returns before the end of the year. 

Leeds United vs Derby County Odds

Leeds are heavy favourites to win this game, priced at 1/3 to take all three points having won seven out of nine matches at Elland Road so far. Derby are 11/2 to record just their second away win of the Championship season, while I’m sure they would snap your hand off for a point, with a draw available at 18/5.

In terms of goals, just 39% of Leeds' matches and 44% of Derby's games have ended with over 2.5 goals, which is priced at 5/6. BTTS has only hit once in the last four games at Elland Road, and is available at 5/4, while Joseph is 4/1 to score first.

Leeds to win to nil @ 10/11

This is a really simple game to predict. Leeds United remain the best team in the league in my eyes, and despite that defeat to Blackburn, I feel pretty confident that they will end the season as champions. I’ve thought it since the summer, and the way they have coped with three key injuries has only furthered my belief that Farke is on his way to another Championship title. 

In particular though, their home form has been unbelievable. Not just the seven wins and one draw in nine matches, but they way they have won these games. They beat Luton Town 3-0 last time out and limited them to four shots on target, but they’ve also beaten QPR 2-0 and Plymouth Argyle 3-0 without conceding a single shot on target in either match.

Coventry were also beaten 3-0 at Elland Road and Sheffield United also didn’t manage a shot on goal in their 2-0 defeat. Leeds at home are a different beast, and that is what will carry them to the title in my eyes. I’ll be surprised if Derby manage to test Illan Meslier, let alone score a goal this Saturday lunchtime. 

Leed United -2 handicap @ 11/4

I’ve just listed a few of Leeds’ home results this season, and you can see a pretty consistent pattern of wins by two or three goals. Given I’m pretty confident that they will dominate this game and keep a clean sheet, it also makes sense to back Farke’s men to win big. 

I think a 3-0 win or more could be on the cards here, given the disparity in quality between the two squads. Derby only came up from League 1 last season and didn’t spend all that much money in the transfer window, so they are overachieving simply by being out of the bottom three. Meanwhile, Leeds still have top-flight quality littered throughout and they should be able to secure a convincing home win. 

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