Nedbank Golf Challenge 2024 Tips: 225/1 shot one of four for Sun City

The DP World Tour moves from Australia to South Africa this week for the Nedbank. 

As always, here is Jamie Worsley's comprehensive preview and Nedbank Golf Challenge 2024 Tips, featuring four selections ranging from 20/1 all the way out to a massive 225/1!

The prevailing theme at the start of this new DP World Tour season has been the fearlessness of youth, as 24-year-old Ryggs Johnston followed 22-year-old Elvis Smylie’s win in the Australian PGA Championship, by impressively claiming the Australian Open in the Melbourne Sandbelt last week.

The American only turned professional around five months ago and was making just his second start on the DPWT, having battled through Q-School just a couple of weeks earlier. However, he looked like a seasoned pro as he strolled to a three-shot victory in Sunday’s final round, and possessing a strong amateur pedigree, it very much looks like a sign of things to come for the Arizona State grad.

Both Johnston and Smylie will reap the rewards of their victories by getting into the bigger events this season. That added bonus begins this week, as the duo are among a strong field heading to Sun City’s Gary Player Country Club for the Nedbank Golf Challenge.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Nedbank Golf Challenge began life in 1981 as essentially a five-man exhibition event. It has seen its field size rise over the following years, during which time the tournament has grown in stature, leading to it being nicknamed “Africa’s Major”. It became an official Sunshine Tour event in 2006, before joining the ranks of the DP World Tour in 2013.

The list of past winners of the event include esteemed names such as Seve Ballesteros, Bernhard Langer, Nick Faldo, Ernie Els and Lee Westwood, among many more. Although, only one player has won multiple Nedbank Golf Challenge titles in the DP World Tour era of the event, with Tommy Fleetwood winning both the 2019 and 2022 editions.

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Max Homa (-19); runner-up: Nicolai Hojgaard (-15)
• 2022 – Winner: Tommy Fleetwood (-11); runner-up: Ryan Fox (-10)
• 2019 – Winner: Tommy Fleetwood (-12, playoff); runner-up: Marcus Kinhult (-12)
• 2018 – Winner: Lee Westwood (-15); runner-up: Sergio Garcia (-12)
• 2017 – Winner: Branden Grace (-11); runner-up: Scott Jamieson (-10)

*  2020 and 2021 editions cancelled due to COVID

Max Homa teed it up at Gary Player Country Club for the first time last year and walked away with the title after an impressive four-shot victory over Nicolai Hojgaard, becoming the first American winner since Jim Furyk in 2006. He returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

Each edition of the Nedbank Challenge since its inception has been played here at Gary Player Country Club, which is situated in the luxury resort of Sun City. Designed by the iconic Gary Player, it opened for play in 1979 and aside from staging this event, it hosted the 2020 and 2021 editions of the South African Open; whilst it is still regularly used as host for various events on the Sunshine Tour.

The course measures in at a mammoth 7819 yards and plays as a par 72, possessing 4x par 3s (211-219 yards), 10x par 4s (424-503 yards) and 4x par 5s (547-601 yards). Having said that, situated at altitude of around 1130 metres above sea level, it will play significantly shorter (closer to 7450 yards).

Averaging a winning score of -15.45 across the nine DPWT renewals of the event, Gary Player Country CC provides players with a demanding but fair all-round test.

Dense bushland lines most of the holes at this largely flat, tree-lined course, which will almost always result in a dropped shot if players stray too far from the short grass. Although, players won’t need to be quite that wayward to find trouble here.

The fairways are narrow-average in width, with many of the landing areas tightened by intelligently-placed, strategic bunkering. Notoriously challenging kikuyu rough offers added protection and ensures that there is a premium on keeping your ball under control off the tee.

The small, sloping and quick bentgrass greens are some of the most difficult to hit, possessing the eighth-lowest greens-in-regulation percentages on the DPWT. However, due to a variety of fiendish pin positions on these often raised surfaces, merely finding the green isn’t enough, and players will require precision in approach to leave themselves less treacherous putts.

They’re also tough to scramble around, ranking 9^th in scrambling difficulty. Most are well bunkered, with more of that kikuyu rough coming into play and run-off areas that will test even the strongest chippers in the field.

Water is a threat on six holes, most notably surrounding the green on the 596-yard par 5 9^th and sitting to the left-hand side of the 478-yard par 4 17^th from start to finish.

Although the par 5s do offer up genuine birdie chances, they all come with danger attached. Gary Player CC just doesn’t give anything away freely and players will be hoping for generous conditions, as this testing course doesn’t need adverse weather to defend it.

THE WEATHER

Heat may be the toughest part of the conditions this week, with temperatures forecast to reach close to 40C. There is the possibility of some rain on Thursday, but the rest of the week is scheduled to be clear.

The event is predicted to open with gusty winds, potentially hitting highs of 35mph, though this should die down over the weekend and I wouldn’t expect it to be too much of a factor over those final two rounds.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation

Gary Player CC puts demands on every area of your game, though it’s approach play into the small, sloping surfaces that I believe to be of most importance.

Max Homa produced a high-class iron display when taking the title last year, ranking 5^th in greens-in-regulation and 6^th in approach.

Tommy Fleetwood was superb in these areas in 2022, ranking 2^nd both for approach and GIR, whilst he also ranked top 10 in each stat when taking the title in 2019.

2018 winner, Lee Westwood ranked 4^th in GIR and 6^th in approach, and 2017 champion, Branden Grace led the field in approach and ranked 4^th in GIR.

• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance

The driver is another vital club around here and though we’ve seen several shorter, more accurate players go close, most recent winners have possessed above average length.

Max Homa ranked 9^th off-the-tee in 2023, with 3^rd-place finisher Thorbjorn Olesen ranking 3^rd.

Tommy Fleetwood produced an average driving display when winning in 2022, but it was his strongest area in 2019, as he ranked 2^nd in the field.

Lee Westwood was 8^th OTT when he won in 2018 and though Branden Grace was solid if unspectacular with the driver in 2017, the players who finished 3^rd-5^th – Victor Dubuisson, Haotong Li and Martin Kaymer – all ranked top 6.

• SG: Around-the-Greens

With greens that can be difficult to hit and possessing a tough short game challenge, players who excel around-the-greens should enjoy this course.

Max Homa was top 20 in this area in 2023, with Thorbjorn Olesen and Justin Thomas in 3^rd and 4^th ranking 7^th and 3^rd respectively.

Tommy Fleetwood was 2^nd ATG two years ago and ranked 13^th in 2019 - a year in which runner-up, Marcus Kinhult ranked 2^nd and 3^rd-place finisher, Bernd Wiesberger ranked 4^th.

Other past winners, such as Branden Grace, Alex Noren, Danny Willett and Thomas Bjorn are all players who possess a sharp touch around the greens.

• Par 5 Scoring

Lastly, with birdie chances few and far between throughout the rest of the course, players will need to take advantage of the scoring opportunities offered up on the par 5s.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Alfred Dunhill Championship (Leopard Creek Country Club)

Leopard Creek Country Club is another Gary Player design that provides a similar challenge to Gary Player CC from tee-to-green. Fairways are around average width, with the small, slick bentgrass greens both tough to hit and challenging to scramble around.

Notable correlating form:

Branden Grace:

SA Open (1^st) / Alfred Dunhill (1^st)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout:

Nedbank (1^st) / Alfred Dunhill (1^st)

Danny Willett:

Nedbank (1^st) / Alfred Dunhill (4^th)

Scott Jamieson:

Nedbank (2^nd) / Alfred Dunhill (3^rd, 3^rd, 4^th)

Ross Fisher:

Nedbank (2^nd, 4^th) / Alfred Dunhill (3^rd)

Thorbjorn Olesen:

Nedbank (3^rd) / Alfred Dunhill (2^nd)

Thomas Detry:

Nedbank (3^rd) / Alfred Dunhill (3^rd)

Andy Sullivan:

Nedbank (3^rd) / Alfred Dunhill (3^rd)

Joburg Open (Houghton Golf Club)

Located a couple of hours south of Sun City, Houghton Golf Club is another course situated at altitude. It features smartly bunkered kikuyu fairways and small, quick and undulating bentgrass greens. It ranks closely to Gary Player CC in most aspects, especially short game difficulty.

Notable correlating form:

Christiaan Bezuidenhout:

SA Open (1^st) / Joburg (3^rd)

Dean Burmester:

SA Open (4^th) / Joburg (1^st)

Dan Bradbury:

Nedbank (5^th) / Joburg (1^st, 3^rd)

Darren Fichardt:

Nedbank (6^th, 9^th) / Joburg (2^nd)

British Masters (The Belfry – Brabazon Course)

The Brabazon Course is a flat, tree-lined course that serves up a similarly demanding ball-striking test to that which players will encounter this week.

Notable correlating form:

Thorbjorn Olesen:

Nedbank (3^rd) / British Masters (1^st)

Bernd Wiesberger:

Nedbank (3^rd) / UK Championship (5^th)

Andy Sullivan:

Nedbank (3^rd) / British Masters/UK Championship (6^th, 9^th)

Richie Ramsay:

Nedbank (4^th) / British Masters (3^rd)

Sebastian Soderberg:

Nedbank (5^th, 6^th) / British Masters (2^nd)

Dan Bradbury:

Nedbank (5^th) / British Masters (8^th)

Rasmus Hojgaard:

Nedbank (6^th, 8^th) / British Masters/UK Championship (1^st, 3^rd)

Wales Open (Celtic Manor – Twenty Ten Course)

Celtic Manor’s lengthy Twenty Ten Course is a difficult all-round challenge, ranking closely to Gary Player CC in all areas from tee-to-green. In addition, it also possesses almost identical averages in bogey avoidance.

Notable correlating form:

Alex Noren:

Nedbank (1^st) / Wales (1^st)

Tommy Fleetwood:

Nedbank (1^st, 1^st) / Wales (2^nd)

Thomas Bjorn:

Nedbank (1^st) / Wales (2^nd)

Jamie Donaldson:

Nedbank/SA Open (2^nd, 2^nd) / Wales (4^th, 8^th)

Thomas Detry:

Nedbank (3^rd) / Wales (2^nd)

Andy Sullivan:

Nedbank (3^rd) / Wales (3^rd)

Sebastian Soderberg:

Nedbank (5^th, 6^th) / Wales (5^th)

Farmers Insurance Open (Torrey Pines)

Genesis Invitational (Riviera Country Club)

Finally, this event has always had a selection of contenders from the PGA Tour and another large group will be teeing it up this week. Thus, I felt it necessary to check out some comp courses from the U.S

The quality of Max Homa’s win felt reasonably significant and elements of Gary Player CC compare to courses at which the Californian has performed well at in his home state, with both Torrey Pines and Riviera Country Club tough courses that use that same gnarly kikuyu rough.

THE FIELD

Defending champion, Max Homa returns to defend and is the top-ranked player in this week’s field at #35. He is joined by a further two from inside the top 50, as Canadian Corey Conners (#42) makes his debut in the event and home favourite, Thriston Lawrence (#47) aims to add another prestigious South African title to his C.V

Will Zalatoris and Mackenzie Hughes also hop over from the PGA Tour to make their debuts in the event, whilst Thomas Detry and Erik Van Rooyen take advantage of the PGA Tour FedExCup top 70 category to return to the event.

Youngsters, Elvis Smylie and Ryggs Johnston will both tee it up after their life-changing wins in Australia; the leading player from the Sunshine Tour Order of Merit for 2023/24, Ryan Van Velzen gets a spot in the field; and among the tournament invites are South African duo, Aldrich Potgieter and Robin Williams, along with former #3 amateur Wenyi Ding.

Nedbank Golf Challenge Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Nedbank Golf Challenge on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Corey Conners 10/1, Christiaan Bezuidenhout 12/1, Thorbjorn Olesen 14/1, Max Homa 14/1, Thriston Lawrence 16/1, Will Zalatoris 16/1

The Nedbank Challenge is ordinarily an event that goes the way of one of the more established names in the field, though despite the travelling PGA Tour contingent adding some depth, I am not especially taken by any of them at the prices.

Max Homa is a much bigger price than last year but is in nowhere near the same level of form; Corey Conners doesn’t win enough to tempt me at such a price; Mackenzie Hughes’ ball-striking would be a concern around this setup; and the value in any early price for Will Zalatoris has gone.

Instead, my eye is drawn to a player just outside the market leaders and having produced one of his top-5 ball-striking performances when we last saw him, I’m taking 2023 runner-up Nicolai Hojgaard to go one better in Sun City this time around.

2.5 pts Nicolai Hojgaard each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 20/1

Hojgaard almost started his year in style when runner-up in the Farmers Insurance Open on his first start as a full PGA Tour member. However, barring the odd bright spot, such as finishing 16^th in The Masters and 7^th at the Olympics, he struggled to reach that level again for the rest of his PGA Tour season, and this form bled into his performances when returning to the DP World Tour.

He has turned that around over his last four starts, recording consecutive finishes of 18^th in the Open de France, 20^th in the Andalucia Masters, 9^th in the Genesis Championship and on his latest start in the Abu Dhabi Championship, he finished 13^th thanks to a field-leading ball-striking performance.

The Dane ranked 3^rd off-the-tee and 4^th in approach in Abu Dhabi, areas in which he has excelled throughout his career. With the length he possesses, if now back at his ball-striking best he should be relishing this return to Gary Player CC.

Nicolai made his debut here in the 2020 South African Open, finishing 67^th and then finished 55^th on his first start in this event in 2022. He blew those previous performances out of the water last year, finishing 2^nd to Max Homa and with that runner-up finish at Torrey Pines a good line of form if Homa’s record is anything to go by, he can produce another strong challenge this week.

1.25 pts Guido Migliozzi each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 40/1 

Guido Migliozzi has had a good year on the DPWT, winning his fourth tour title in the KLM Open back in June. He signed off the previous season with some positive results and with all areas of his game showing life, he can make some noise on his third Nedbank Challenge start.

Migliozzi’s win in the Netherlands was one of 13 top 25s this season, which included four further top 10s, the latest of which came when he was 5^th in the Genesis Championship three starts ago. He then played solidly in the playoffs, following a 52^nd-place finish in Abu Dhabi by finishing 19^th in the DP World Tour Championship.

He’s been in fine tee-to-green form over recent starts, ranking 8^th in this field across his last 50 rounds; looking at his best around-the-greens, ranking 5^th and off-the-tee, ranking 8^th. If the Italian can transfer that level of T2G performance to Sun City, he can improve on his solid record in the event.

Miglizzoi debuted here in 2019, finishing 21^st and returned to finish 44^th in 2022, starting each event with a 5-under 67 to sit 3^rd after round one. This shows he has the ability to play the course and with a runner-up finish in the 2021 British Masters also boding well, I fancy him for a contending performance this week.

1 pt Dan Bradbury each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 66/1

Dan Bradbury won his second DPWT title four starts ago in the Open de France, which was engineered by improved performances in approach and on the greens. Having somewhat maintained those gains in his following starts, he can follow up on his impressive 5^th-place finish on debut at Gary Player CC last year.

Bradbury has been hitting the ball well for most of the year but his woes on the greens had seriously impacted results. However, a switch to a long putter brought about some better performances in this area and ultimately played a huge part in his victory in France. He backed that up with a 20^th-place finish on his next start in the Andalucia Masters and was solid enough when 46^th in Abu Dhabi, though he will need to bounce back from a poor ball-striking performance in the DP World Tour Championship when we last saw him.

I’m confident the Englishman can do that here, as it’s with the long game that he has excelled this year, ranking 9^th on the DPWT in approach and 15^th in this field off-the-tee, where he blends accuracy with a good level of power.

Bradbury made an instant impact in South Africa shortly after turning pro in 2022, winning the Joburg Open on just his third DPWT start. He then finished an excellent 5^th on his debut here at the end of last year, and with a 3^rd-place finish in defence of his Joburg title again showing his ability to perform in this part of the world, he looks an appealing price for a big performance.

1 pt Dylan Frittelli each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 225/1

We landed a big-priced winner with Dylan Frittelli earlier in the year in Bahrain, and returning to Sun City with some small but nevertheless noteworthy recent improvements, I’m taking him to far outplay his huge odds this week.

Frittelli’s win in the Middle East came all the way back in February and it’s safe to say he didn’t maintain that form, missing 14 of his next 25 cuts and recording just one further top 25, when 20^th in the European Open. That being said, he does come here after making three of his last five and was on track to make that four on his latest start in the RSM Classic, before suffering some bad luck in the shape of a significant draw bias due to challenging conditions at the Seaside Course in round two.

He understandably struggled off-the-tee there, but he had made some visible gains with the club on his prior four starts, finding some accuracy to go with his power. With the irons also looking a little better in recent starts and possessing an excellent touch around-the-greens, he looks to have his tee-to-green game in a much better place than his form figures would suggest.

Frittelli debuted in this event in 2017, finishing 42^nd and returned to finish 21^st the following year, though he hasn’t played at the course since finishing an excellent 3^rd in the 2020 South African Open. He also has a hugely encouraging record at Leopard Creek, finishing inside the top 25 in each of his six starts in the Alfred Dunhill Championship and as a proven winner not only on the DPWT but in the U.S, he looks well worth chancing at this massive price on home soil.

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