Albania vs Ukraine Prediction: Draw on the cards in Tirana

League B Group 1 of the Nations League is the tightest in the tournament as we head into the final gameweek with just three points separating Czechia at the top of the group and Ukraine at the bottom. It means we have a whole host of permutations to consider as Albania host Ukraine on Tuesday night (19:45). 

Albania can still win this group if they win and Czechia and Georgia draw, while Ukraine’s focus will be on avoiding relegation to League C. Read on to find my Albania vs Ukraine predictions featuring team news and betting tips. 

Team News

Indrit Tuci led the line for Albania in the absence of Armando Broja and Rey Manaj, with Mirlind Daku and despite the lack of goals in that 0-0 draw, it was a solid performance from the home side. Another option up top is Ernest Muci who looks to have recovered from a foot injury, but it feels as though Sylvinho could stick with the same XI. 

Marash Kumbulla and Berat Djimsiti both remain out injured so that limits options at the back and a close eye will be kept on captain Elseid Hysaj. The Lazio defender was left on the bench last time out but could come into the team at right-back if the manager decides a change is needed at the back. 

Benfica’s Anatoliy Trubin will have to continue in goal for Ukraine given Real Madrid’s Andriy Lunin is absent, while Serhiy Rebrov is likely to stick with his big guns up front in the form of Chelsea’s Mykhaylo Mudryk and Roma’s Artem Dovbyk. 

Oleksandr Zinchenko was left on the bench in the 1-1 draw with Georgia and I’d expect him to come back into the XI if he can prove his fitness, while Roman Yaremchuk is an attacking option off the bench. Mykola Shaparenko, Heorhiy Sudakov and Volodymyr Brazhko should make up the midfield trio once again. 

Albania vs Ukraine Odds

Albania are priced at 21/10 to win this game, with Ukraine priced at 11/8. That gives the away side an implied win probability of 42%, with a draw available at 9/4. Over 2.5 goals is 11/10, BTTS is 5/6 and Dovbyk is the favourite to score first at 5/1. 

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6

This is likely to be another tight affair. I don’t see there being a load of goals in this one given what we have seen from both outfits so far. There have been fewer than 2.5 goals in the last three Ukraine matches, while the same can be said for the last four Albania games. The home side drew 0-0 with Czechia last time out and there just isn’t a whole lot of attacking quality on show for them, especially with Broja out injured.

Meanwhile, I like Dovbyk and Mudryk but Ukraine aren’t as functional going forward as you might expect. Given there is a lot riding on this game I’m expecting a fairly nervy affair in Tirana. Under 2.5 goals feels like a sensible first selection based on what we have seen so far. 

Draw @ 9/4

I’m also happy to back a draw at 9/4. This is a really well-matched group and that is where the Nations League has been a success. Ukraine have drawn their last two fixtures while Albania also drew last time out and even though the away side need to win to avoid relegation, I’m not sure they will be able to manage it. 

Sylvinho has Albania playing a compact style of football which makes them tough to beat, and I think they will be able to pick up an important point here. They beat Ukraine 2-1 away from home earlier in this competition, but I’ll remain on the fence on this occasion.

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