UFC 309 Predictions: Jones can’t escape Aspinall, but Miocic is easy pickings

UFC 309 takes place this Saturday, November 16 at the iconic Madison Square Garden in New York City. The mammoth MMA extravaganza will be headlined by Jon Jones defending his UFC Heavyweight Championship against former titleholder Stipe Miocic. TNT Sports will broadcast the event live in the UK.

Here are my UFC 309 predictions ahead of this mammoth main event.

The build-up to this event has been dominated not by Jones-Miocic, but about another potential outing for Jones. The champion has not been able to avoid questions as smoothly as he avoids punches, getting clocked with unending queries pertaining to Tom Aspinall.

The UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion has long been a thorn in Jones’ side. The ex-light heavyweight seems nonplussed by the idea of facing a man who has superior size and strength to him. While Jones has filled out nicely since moving up, the Manchester man is a natural heavyweight. 

But whatever your feelings on that fight, and I personally think as champion it is Jones’ duty to accommodate the interim ruler, it is not the one taking place this Saturday. One must spare a thought for Miocic, whose own chances of a victory over ‘Bones’ are being discounted to a disrespectful degree.

Of course, that now puts pressure on me as your dedicated scribe to argue for Ohio man’s chances. They are slim, I’ll give you that. It has been over three-and-a-half years since Miocic set foot in the Octagon. Francis Ngannou stopped him in the second round on that occasion, winning the Heavyweight Championship in the process. 

It's been over four years since Miocic’s last win. So long ago, in fact, that it took place behind pandemic-mandated closed doors. That fight saw Stipe close the triptych against rival Daniel Cormier, taking their trilogy 2-1 by virtue of a unanimous decision victory. 

Not that Jones has been particularly active in that time. This is Jones’ first outing since March 2023, when he won the vacant championship by choking out Ciryl Gane in the first round. Before that, Jones hadn’t fought since February 2020. 

It makes the form guide hard to read for this one. While not coming close to a certain Netflix-headlining boxer’s level of inactivity, these are not men that fight often. Jones has youth on his side, five years younger than his 42-year-old opponent. But the champion has had five more fights, 29 to Miocic’s 24. 

The key number to crunch here is the fact Jones has only ever lost once, a 2009 disqualification against Matt Hamill for using illegal elbow strikes. Meanwhile, Miocic has been knocked out by Ngannou, Cormier and Stefan Struve, along with a decision loss to Junior dos Santos. Those stoppages start to take their toll after a while. Four years out of the cage is certainly not the best way to stave off their effects.

That is before you get into the stylistic battle. Jones seems genetically engineered to give anyone close to his size hell. Miocic is the same height and a little slimmer in weight these days, meaning Jones has no Aspinall-like physical advantages to fear. 

Speed kills in this game and Jones has that in abundance too. Miocic has never been the quickest and I can see this deficit being punished.

This is a curious fight. Made through pure force-of-will and an owe-you-one spirit from Dana White to Stipe, this one got pushed through despite the MMA world having moved on. It will still be interesting to see it play out. But there is a reason the zeitgeist has been dominated by Jones vs Aspinall.

Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic Fight Odds

Jones is 1/7 to pull off the victory in this main event fight. Miocic is priced at 9/2 while a draw is available at 50/1.

UFC 309 Full Card

Main Card

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic

Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler

Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

Viviane Araújo vs. Karine Silva

Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop

Preliminary Card 

Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee

Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders

Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson

David Onama vs. Roberto Romero

Early Preliminary Card 

Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz

Mickey Gall vs. Ramiz Brahimaj

Bassil Hafez vs. Oban Elliot

Veronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura

Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic Prediction

I think Jones has too much in every department for Miocic at this stage of their respective careers. The ex-champion has been out of the cage for too long, even against a guy like Jones who fights infrequently.

I can see ‘Bones’ dominating this match-up and winning via knockout at odds of 6/5.

You can find all our latest UFC betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights UFC page