Italy vs France Prediction: Cards kept to a minimum in Milan

Italy and France are both already through to next year's Uefa Nations League quarter-finals but there is still the small matter of who is to finish top of Group A2, and who will be seeded for the draw. Italy are in pole position, sat three points ahead of their opponents at San Siro on Sunday (19:45, Viaplay International YouTube). However, a three-goal win for France in Milan would reverse the current situation.

Below you can find my Italy vs France prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this final-round fixture in Group A2.

Team News

Italy started their 1-0 victory over Belgium in Brussels on Thursday with a 3-5-1-1 formation; Paris Saint-Germain goalkeeper and Gli Azzurri captain Gianluigi Donnarumma lined up between the sticks with a three-man central defence of Alessandro Bastoni (Inter Milan), Alessandro Buongiorno and Giovanni Di Lorenzo (both Napoli) in front of him.

Head coach Luciano Spalletti could hand a start on Sunday to Tottenham Hotspur shot-stopper Guglielmo Vicario, who got the nod ahead of Donnarumma in last month's 4-1 win over Israel in Udine, while Federico Gatti (Juventus), Pietro Comuzzo (Fiorentina) and Caleb Okoli (Leicester City) are options if he wishes to tinker with his backline.

Federico Dimarco (Inter) and Andrea Cambiaso (Juventus) were Spalletti's wing-backs against the Red Devils; Destiny Udogie (Tottenham) and Nicolo Savona (Juventus) are potential replacements for the duo.

Sandro Tonali (Newcastle United), Nicolo Rovella (Lazio) and Davide Fratessi (Inter) were the midfield trio at the King Baudouin Stadium, with Nicolo Barella (Inter) just ahead of them and Mateo Retegui (Atalanta) leading the line.

Niccolo Pisilli (AS Roma), Manuel Locatelli (Juventus), Daniel Maldini (Monza), Giacomo Raspadori (Napoli) and Moise Kean (Fiorentina) are all fighting to gain some minutes in Milan after being named as substitutes in Brussels - Locatelli, Kean and Raspadori all came on in the second half, alongside Gatti and Udogie.

Football Odds

France boss Didier Deschamps could make several changes himself after Thursday's disappointing goalless draw with Israel in Paris.

Mike Maignan (AC Milan) started in goal at the Stade de France behind a four-man defence of Jules Kounde (FC Barcelona), Ibrahima Konate (Liverpool), Dayot Upamecano (Bayern Munich) and Theo Hernandez (AC Milan), with N'Golo Kante (Al-Ittihad), Eduardo Camavinga (Real Madrid) and Warren Zaire-Emery in midfield.

Camavinga is suspended for Sunday's trip to Milan after receiving his second yellow card of the campaign in midweek, so he will have to be replaced on Sunday. Adrien Rabiot (Olympique Marseille) is the most obvious candidate to take his spot, while Matteo Guendouzi (Lazio) and Manu Kone (Roma) are a couple of other midfield options.

Benjamin Pavard (Inter), William Saliba (Arsenal) and Jonathan Clauss (OGC Nice) are options for Deschamps in defence, while either Brice Samba (RC Lens) or Lucas Chevalier (LOSC Lille) will hope for a rare start between the sticks.

Les Bleus' front three on Thursday was Michael Olise (Bayern), Randal Kolo Muani and Bradley Barcola (both PSG); Kingsley Coman (Bayern), Christopher Nkunku (Chelsea) and Marcus Thuram (Inter) all came on in Paris earlier in the week and are hunting starting opportunities on Sunday.

Italy vs France Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Italy vs France page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Italy are 15/8 to do the double over their opponents, giving Gli Azzurri an implied win probability of 34.8%, while France are 6/4, or a 40% chance, to exact revenge with a victory in Milan.

The draw is priced at 2/1, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 1/1.

Kean and Retegui (both 21/10) lead the anytime goalscorer market, followed by Kolo Muani (5/2) and Thuram (13/5).

Double Chance & Both Teams to Score - Italy or Draw & No @ 11/5

After failing to keep a clean sheet in their first four Nations League games or in their last eight matches stretching back to the start of Euro 2024, Thursday's 1-0 win over Belgium provided a much-needed confidence boost to Italy's defenders and goalkeeper. The Red Devils barely had a sniff at goal in the first half and in the second Donnarumma and co were on hand to thwart any opportunities that did open up.

On the same night, France toiled at home to Israel, registering 24 shots (eight on target) but failing to score. Perhaps they could have done with Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappe who was, presumably, sat on the sofa with his feet up while his country huffed and puffed to no avail.

Without their talisman, and the recently-retired Antoine Griezmann, France look light in attack, especially with Thuram also on the bench. Kolo Muani had been in decent form for Les Bleus but hasn't scored for his club since September 1 and his rustiness was apparent in Paris.

Thuram may get the nod to start on Sunday but Italy are in a great position and will be happy to sit back and soak up the pressure, knowing that they have the defensive wherewithal to stand any French onslaught.

Both teams are already qualified for next year's finals, and given the fact that France would have to win by a three-goal margin to leapfrog Spalletti's side, I think we could see a fairly low-key game in Milan, with a goalless draw a real possibility.

A lot will depend on the teams that the managers select, but either way, I fancy Italy to keep a clean sheet, and thus avoid defeat.

The double chance result on Gli Azzurri and BTTS - No is my first tip for this contest at 11/5.

Booking Points Over/Under 37.5 - Under 37.5 @ 13/8

Despite being two of the biggest traditional European nations in international football, sparks haven't really been flying between the two over the last decade-plus.

The last four games between the two, the first taking place in November 2012, have all seen under 37.5 booking points, with September's clash in Paris seeing just 20 - 10 for each team - as Retegui was booked for Italy and Kone cautioned for France.

There were also under 37.5 booking points in Italy's 2-1 win over Israel in Budapest three days after their 3-1 win at the Parc des Princes and in Gli Azzurri's 4-1 Udine victory in the reverse fixture last month.

France, meanwhile, have seen under 37.5 booking points in two other Nations League contests - a 4-1 win over Israel at the Bozsik Arena last month, and their goalless draw against the same opponent earlier this week.

With both Italy and France already assured of a place in next year's quarter-finals, I don't see much reason for angst this Sunday, so 13/8 for under 37.5 booking points provides great value, in my opinion.

Remember, with Betfred, a yellow card amounts to 10 booking points, and a red to 25, so we could even get away with three yellows in this bet, as long as there are no reds to accompany them.

Offers

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any Nations League game on Monday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Tuesday’s Nations League games. (Credited upon Bet Settlement)

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