Ireland vs Argentina Prediction: Los Pumas can keep things tight in Dublin

A 23-13 loss to New Zealand last week ended a 19-match winning run at home for Ireland, and nothing focuses the mind more for the next test than a chastening home loss. Ireland were guilty of poor discipline against the All Blacks, losing the penalty count 13-5, and also made too many errors.

Coach Andy Farrell has largely stuck with the same team and the emphasis in training is sure to have been on tightening up, and the upshot could be a tight, hard-fought game against Argentina at the Aviva Stadium on Friday (20:10, TNT Sports 1). Read on for my Ireland vs Argentina prediction, alongside team news and match odds.

Team News

The one change in the Ireland starting line-up is the return of Robbie Henshaw at centre in place of Bundee Aki.

But Farrell has shaken up his bench, including uncapped fly-half Sam Prendergast and Munster scrum-half Craig Casey in place of Conor Murray.

Rugby Union Odds

Argentina make three changes following their win over Italy last week, the most significant of which is the return of Pablo Matera to the back row following a suspension.

Matera, who has played for Leicester, Stade Francais and Crusaders, is one of Los Pumas’s world-class players.

Ireland vs Argentina Odds

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Ireland are 2/11 favourites to return to winning ways, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 84.6%, while Argentina are 4/1 shots and the draw 25/1. The match handicap is set at 12 points.

Argentina +12 handicap @ 10/11

Argentina’s last trip to Dublin ended in a heavy 53-7 defeat but that was three years ago and they have proved since then that they are not a team to be taken lightly.

Los Pumas have beaten France, New Zealand, Australia and South Africa this year and have a big win under their belts already going into this game having beaten Italy 50-18 last week.

Teams often react to disappointing defeats by coming out swinging in their next fixture but the signs are that Ireland coach Farrell is taking a more measured approach and after last week’s error-strewn display against the All Blacks, it’s unlikely the Irish will take risks, especially early on.

Argentina are a powerful set-piece unit and will be hard to break down, and it’s likely patience will be needed. Los Pumas can certainly stay within a double-figure handicap.

Anytime Tryscorer - Caelan Doris (IRE) @ 9/4

Games against Argentina can often turn into close-quarters battles and although Ireland have a dangerous back three, it looks just as likely that tries will come from close range.

Ireland’s back row performed well last week against New Zealand and flanker Josh van der Flier scored their only try in an eye-catching performance.

That was his first Ireland try in 13 matches, and while Tadhg Beirne, also lining up at flanker against Argentina, scored in the Six Nations, number eight Caelan Doris looks like the value pick to bag a try in this game.

His total of six tries in 45 games for Ireland is not the highest but he has three in three starts for Leinster this season and is clearly in-form and confident.

Rugby Union Betting Tips from Betfred Insights.