Peru vs Chile Prediction: La Bicolor to edge bottom-of-the-table clash

There are still eight rounds of fixtures to be played but qualification for the 2026 Fifa World Cup already looks like a mountainous task for both Chile and Peru, who are bottom and second-bottom, respectively, in the table. The two nations face off against each other at the Estadio Nacional in Lima on Saturday (01:30) in what is surely a must-win game for either.

Below is my Peru vs Chile prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, for this Clasico del Pacifico in the Peruvian capital.

Team News

Leganes midfielder Renato Tapia has withdrawn from the Peru squad for their November qualifier against Chile and Argentina, forcing La Bicolor boss Jorge Fossati to call up Universitario de Deportes' Jorge Murrugarra as his replacement.

FC Copenhagen full-back Marcos Lopez, who played the entirety of last month's 4-0 defeat to Brazil in Brasilia, hasn't been included despite starting the Danish side's 2-2 draw with Istanbul Basaksehir in the Uefa Conference League last Thursday.

All-time top scorer Paulo Guerrero, currently at Alianza Lima, is back in the international fold, however.

Football Odds

Legendary Chilean midfielder Arturo Vidal has received his first call-up of the Ricardo Gareca era, which has come as something of a surprise considering his previous comments about La Roja's head coach.

There's no space for 144-cap wing-back Mauricio Isla or Southampton forward Ben Brereton Diaz, however, while Udinese's Alexis Sanchez remains sidelined with the injury that has caused him to miss the start of the 2024/25 season.

Norwich City's Marcelino Nunez is also still injured, too.

Atletico Mineiro's Eduardo Vargas and Torino's Guillermo Maripan are among the headline names in Gareca's squad, but Flamengo's Erick Pulgar and FC Midtjylland's Daniel Osorio have been forced to pull out.

Peru vs Chile Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Peru vs Chile page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Peru are 11/8 to take all three points in Lima, giving La Bicolor an implied win probability of 42.1%, while Chile are 15/8, or a 34.8% chance, to do the double over their hosts, having won the reverse fixture 2-0 in Santiago in October last year.

The teams played out a goalless draw at the 2024 Copa America in the USA on June 22 and you can get 2/1 for another stalemate on Saturday. Both teams to score is priced at 11/10 and over 2.5 total goals at 13/8.

Peru forwards Alex Valera (11/4) and Gianluca Lapadula (3/1), of Universitario and Cagliari, respectively, lead the anytime goalscorer market. Vargas (100/30) is first up for the visitors.

To Win to Nil - Peru @ 12/5

At first glance, this is a difficult contest to call, as just a point separates ninth-placed Peru and 10th-placed Chile. Saturday's hosts have a -11 goal difference (three scored, 14 conceded), while their visitors have a -13 goal difference (five scored, 18 conceded).

However, when delving deeper into each team's home and away record, there's an obvious favourite to take all three points at the Estadio Nacional.

Peru lost their first two games in Lima, against Brazil (0-1) and Argentina (0-2), but are unbeaten in their last three qualifiers in the capital. La Bicolor drew 1-1 with Venezuela in November 2023, 1-1 with Colombia in September, and beat Uruguay 1-0 last month.

Chile, meanwhile, are the only side yet to pick up a point on their travels having lost 3-1 in Uruguay, 3-0 in Venezuela, 1-0 in Ecuador, 3-0 in Argentina, and 4-0 in Colombia. As you can see, they have scored just once away from home and that was their first qualifier of the campaign, in Montevideo in September 2023.

La Roja have looked bereft of ideas away from Santiago and the absence of Sanchez from the side in this year's games qualifiers has made scoring away from home even more complex.

Chile won the reverse fixture 2-0 in Santiago in October 2023 - Diego Valdes opened the scoring in the 74th minute before Nunez made sure of the points in the first minute of added time - but the last meeting, at the 2024 Copa America in June, saw the sides play out a goalless draw in Arlington, Texas.

Peru, meanwhile, won their last World Cup qualifier against Chile on home soil, beating La Roja 2-0 at the Estadio Nacional in October 2021.

La Bicolor have really struggled for goals this campaign but all three of their strikes have been in Lima and have come in their last three home games - one in each against Venezuela, Colombia and Uruguay.

Chile haven't scored in their previous four away outings in qualification, so one goal might just do it for Peru on Saturday.

A Peru win to nil looks good value at 12/5, in my opinion.

Half-time/Full-time - Draw/Peru @ 9/2

I expect Peru to win on Saturday but by no means do I think Chile will roll over and make it easy for their hosts.

La Roja have been level at half-time in half (five) of their 10 qualifiers, while that number could so easily have been seven; Venezuela only made the breakthrough in their 3-0 win in Maturin in the first minute of first-half added time before scoring twice in the second period, while Chile were drawing 1-1 at home to Bolivia in Santiago before La Verde struck what proved to be the winning goal in added time before the interval.

Chile were also drawing 0-0 at half-time in all three of their 2024 Copa America group games during the summer.

Peru, meanwhile, have been on equal terms at the interval in six of their 10 qualifiers, including three of their last four, and like Chile, all of their Copa America group games were goalless at half-time, including their meeting with La Roja.

The reverse fixture between the two nations in World Cup qualifying was also 0-0 after 45 minutes before Chile pulled away in the second half.

Ultimately, I think Peru will have enough to edge this encounter, but I think it may take La Bicolor until the second half before they can breach the visitors' defence.

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