Wales vs Fiji Prediction: Hosts can finally register Millennium victory

Wales finished bottom of the pile in the Six Nations and have struggled for wins in 2024, but Warren Gatland’s men can finally break their losing run at the Millennium Stadium when they host Fiji on Sunday. The hosts have won just two of their last 10 in front of their own fans and the most recent of these came against the Barbarians in November 2023, with Leigh Halfpenny inspiring the Welsh to a 49-26 victory.

The Flying Fijians on the other hand have had plenty of success this calendar year- notably lifting the Pacific Nations Cup for a record seventh time in September - but their recent thrashing at the hands of Scotland will have left them rattled.

Match betting - Wales vs Fiji

Home advantage sees Wales as the favourites for victory in this encounter at 2/5, whereas Fiji are 2/1 to claim their first ever win on Welsh soil.

The draw provides odds of 22/1, while Ospreys hooker Dewi Lake is the favourite to score a try in this clash at 10/11. 

Team news 

Gatland has made12 changes to the side that started in their 36-35 victory over Australian Super Rugby side Queensland Reds in July, with prop Archie Griffin, flanker Taine Plumtree and full-back Cameron Winnett keeping their places.

Griffin will start alongside Gareth Thomas and captain Dewi Lake in the front row, with Tommy Reffell and the experienced trio of Will Rowlands, Adam Beard and Aaron Wainwright joining Plumtree in the rest of the scrum.

Gloucester duo Tomos Williams and Gareth Anscombe start at scrum-half and fly-half respectively, while Winnett is joined by Mason Grady, Max Llewellyn, Ben Thomas and Blair Murray at the back.

Fiji head coach Mick Byrne has introduced six fresh faces to the XV who were comprehensively beaten 57-17 by Scotland last time out, with four of these changes coming in the backline.

Lyon centre Semi Radradra returns to the side in place of Ponepati Loganimasi on the left wing, while Josua Tuisova, Waisea Nayacalevu and Jiuta Wainiqolo also come into the starting XV ahead of Inia Tabuavou, Apisalome Vota and Isaiah Ravula.

The two changes in the scrum see prop Haereiti Hetet and lock Ratu Leone Rotuisolia replaced by Eroni Mawi and Temo Mayanavanua - who ply their trade in the Premiership with Saracens and Northampton Saints respectively. 

Wales to win by 1-12 points inclusive @ 7/4

This has the makings of a gruelling, close encounter, but the hosts may be able to edge this contest after breaking their losing streak against the Queensland Reds last time out.

Wales are currently on a three-match losing streak at home - falling to defeats in each of their three Six Nations matches at the Millennium Stadium in 2024 - but their win in July broke an eight-match losing run.

Fiji’s heavy loss to Scotland will have hit the visitors hard and they may still be licking their wounds from the 32-26 loss in Wales prior to the 2023 World Cup.

A similar winning margin for the hosts could be on the cards on Sunday. 

Rugby Union Betting Tips from Betfred Insights.