Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar Prediction: Arzani to kick on at AAMI Park

Melbourne Victory continued their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Australia A-League Men's season last weekend with a 2-1 win over Australia Cup winners Macarthur, who beat them in the final of that competition in September. Victory's next assignment comes on Saturday (06:00, TNT Sports 1) at AAMI Park, where they host a winless Brisbane Roar side that have suffered back-to-back defeats.

Below is my Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Bruno Fornaroli, Melbourne Victory's top goalscorer last season, was left out of the matchday squad for last Sunday's victory over Macarthur, with the 37-year-old now seemingly third-choice striker behind Nikos Vergos and Jing Reec.

It remains to be seen whether the Uruguay-born Australia international regains his place for this weekend's fixture, but he is in the extended squad, at least, as is Joshua Inserra who also failed to make the cut last time out.

Head coach Patrick Kisnorbo could make at least one change to his starting XI with Victory a goal down at home to Macarthur before Daniel Arzani was brought on for Zinedine Machach just after the hour mark. Arzani subsequently scored from the penalty spot within seven minutes of his introduction before Reno Piscopo struck the winner in the 75th minute.

Football Odds

Brisbane Roar are still without injured pair Scott Neville and Neicer Acosta, but the rest of the squad remains as it was for last week's 3-2 loss at home to Sydney.

Indonesia international Rafael Struick strengthened his claims for a starting spot by netting within eight minutes of his second-half arrival at Suncorp Stadium, leaving head coach Ruben Zadkovich with a decision to make this weekend.

Florin Berenguer also made his mark after coming off the bench, setting up Thomas Waddingham for Brisbane's first goal against the Sky Blues, and the Frenchman is in contention to begin Saturday's game in Melbourne.

Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Melbourne Victory are 8/13, or a 61.9% chance, to take all three points at AAMI Park, while Brisbane Roar are 18/5, giving the visitors an implied win probability of 21.7%.

The draw is available at 11/4, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/13.

Fornaroli (21/20), Vergos (13/10) and Reec (13/8) head the anytime goalscorer market, followed by Arzani (15/8), while Waddingham (5/2) is shortest-priced for the Roar.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Melbourne Victory & Under 3.5 @ 6/4

Melbourne Victory have a rotten recent record in this fixture, failing to win any of their last seven competitive meetings with Brisbane Roar, who beat them 3-2 at Suncorp Stadium in March before holding the hosts to a goalless draw at AAMI Park the following month.

This is a different Victory outfit under Kisnorbo, however, and the 2020/21 A-League Men's Coach of the Year, who won the Premiership twice as a manager with Melbourne City, has already made his team difficult to beat.

In eight league and cup matches, only Macarthur - in the Australia Cup Final - have managed to get the better of Victory, and that was only by a slender margin as the Bulls won 1-0. Kisnorbo's charges exacted their revenge for that defeat last week, their second league success of the season following a 3-1 triumph in the Melbourne derby.

Brisbane, meanwhile, were dumped out of the Australia Cup in the preliminary rounds by Perth Glory, who beat them 4-2 in Marrara, and have lost both A-League matches so far.

The Lions followed up a 2-0 defeat in New Zealand to Auckland with a 3-2 loss at home to Sydney last week, a game in which they equalised twice but ultimately came away without a point.

Their squad is arguably one of the weakest in the league and is certainly much inferior to that of Victory's, who could afford to leave Arzani on the bench and Fornaroli in the stands last week.

I liked the spirit shown by the Roar against Sydney but away to a side that can be tough to break down, I struggle to see them achieving a positive result on Saturday.

There were five goals scored in their defeat last week but I don't think we'll see any more than three at AAMI Park with four of Victory's five games against A-League opposition under Kisborbo finishing with three or fewer.

The last five head-to-heads in Melbourne, dating back to November 2021, have all seen under 3.5 total goals.

Anytime Goalscorer - Daniel Arzani (MVC) @ 15/8

After converting the penalty that got Victory back on level terms last week and retrieving the ball in the build-up to their winner, Arzani stands a good chance of starting on Saturday.

The 25-year-old only scored four times in 31 A-League appearances (including the play-offs) in 2023/24 but did register six assists to hit the 10-goal contribution mark.

He'll be looking to elevate his game this season to establish himself in the Australia squad and racking up more goals and assists would go a long way to helping him do so.

Kisnorbo has an array of attacking options available to him but when on form, there are few, if any, that can rival Arzani's qualities in the final third of the pitch.

Considering he stepped up to the mark last weekend and may be handed spot-kick duties again in the absence of Fornaroli, Arzani's price of 15/8 to score anytime against the Roar is an appealing one.

Offers

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