West Indies vs England 3rd ODI: Where there’s Hope…

It's the Third and deciding ODI at Bridgetown starting at 18:00 on Wednesday with live broadcast on TNT Sports. 

Jamie Pacheco is still in decent profit for the Series despite missing out last time and thinks the hosts can come out on top as outsiders, with skipper Shai Hope also a good bet for a 50 here. 

Cricket Odds

West Indies  

The Windies probably thought the game was in the bag on Saturday at the change of innings after posting a big 328/6, but as we know England and Liam Livingstone had other ideas.  

That total was built on a superb 117 from skipper Shai Hope, who had been a top innings batsman bet for the first match at 7/2. It was a reminder that though he's struggled at times in both the longest and shortest formats, he's the real deal when it comes to the 50-over game. Sherfane Rutherford (54) offered good support and got his runs at a good lick while there were plenty of decent cameos around those two. 

Shamar Joseph was expensive for his one wicket so we could see namesake Alzarri Joseph replace him.  

If the Selectors think spin will be more important here, they could leave Jayden Seales out for Hayden Walsh, which would mean three very capable spinners in him, Gudakesh Motie and Roston Chase.  

Possible XI: King, Lewis, Carty, Hope, Rutherford, Hetmyer, Chase, Motie, A Joseph, Forde, Seales/Walsh.

England 

England can thank their skipper for still being alive in the Series after he put in his best ever performance with the bat in this format, scoring an unbeaten 124 off 85.  

Funnily enough, Livingstone was a winner for us at 6/1 in the first match - which means we're still up by 3 points for the Series – and again here, meaning both our top bat selections for the first game were winners in the second.  

Phil Salt finally got a score of note with a run-a-ball 59 and there were half-centuries for the two we'd split stakes on at big prices, Jacob Bethell and Sam Curran; but it was that knock from Livingstone that was the difference between the two sides on the day.  

Earlier Livingstone raised some eyebrows by using nine different bowlers, with only keeper Salt and keeper-by-trade (but fielder here) Jordan Cox not bowling. Innovation and experimentation? Or desperation?  

John Turner, Jofra Archer and Adil Rashid were the pick of the bowlers. Like the Windies, they may decide to play an additional spinner in Rehman Ahmed which would probably mean Saqid Mahmood making way. Jordan Cox has struggled but will probably be given one more chance with Michael Pepper having to wait for an opportunity of his own.  

Possible XI: Salt, Jacks, Cox, Bethell, Livingstone, Mousley, Curran, Ahmed/Mahmood, Archer, Rashid, Turner.

Pitch and Conditions  

We're at Bridgetown for this one, a ground that has seen plenty of ODI cricket played here over the years, including six matches since 2022. Of those, the Windies won three and lost three. 

In July last year they bowled India out for just 181 and chased it with ease and a year ago restricted England to 206/9 off 40 overs in a rain-reduced match, eventually winning via DLS.  

So, it can be a tricky wicket to bat on; the chasing sides have won both matches so far this Series and bowling first here has been the way to go so that's probably what both skippers will want to do. 

West Indies vs England Odds

The Windies go off as outsiders for the third match in a row, available at the same 11/10 they were last time out, which is implied probability of 47.6%. England are 8/11, which translates as 58%.

West Indies to win @ 11/10

I'm happy to take the odds-against price on the Windies. Not only did England concede too many runs but they were almost dead and buried in the chase before that once-in-a-lifetime knock by Livingstone in a match that Shai Hope's men really should have won. The fact he's top-scored for them in both matches suggest that they're a little over-reliant on the skip and that if he goes cheaply, a combination of inexperience in the batters around him and the fact they're also somewhat out of form may have them in trouble.  

It's also worth pointing out that England have a really poor record in the chase of late. Yes, they got up to win last time but that made it just three wins in 14 batting second. Which presents a dilemma: you want to be batting second here but that's a really dismal record and almost a case of 'damned if you, damned if you don't'.  

Add to the equation that the hosts won here in Barbados this time last year and that's enough reasons to think the Windies are a decent bet as outsiders. 

England Top Bowler/Batsman   

Livingstone was 6/1 for the first one and 5/1 for the second one, wining both times as we know. He's been cut to 18/5 but thanks to the Betfred Price Boost, is available at 7/2. In terms of his excellent form, that's not the worst price but it's so difficult to come up with the goods for a third time on the spin and it doesn't seem right to be taking what is almost half the price of what he was the first time round, so we'll swerve the captain. Sam Curran looks a value bet at 9/1 given he played well last time and could be due a promotion.  

Livingstone's big odds to be England top bowler were highlighted last time out and he did take a wicket but lost out to Rashid and Turner, who each took two. Livingstone is 13/2 this time for top bowler with Rashid of interest at 100/30.   

Shai Hope to score 50 or more @ (Price Boost) @ 2/1

Hope is 11/4 to make it back-to-back top bat wins of his own but there's a better alternative to that.  

Thanks to a Price Boost, you can get 2/1 on him getting to 50 runs and that makes more appeal. Look at it this way: he's a marginally shorter price to get to 50 than to be top batsman, and to be top batsman he'd probably need to score at least 50 anyway. If he does get to raise his bat, you're paid out - at inflated odds - without having to worry about what everyone else is doing. Considering the openers could well go out and get 70 or 80 and not give Hope time to catch up and you can see the logic in taking the slightly smaller odds.  

His last four scores here in Barbados were: 51, 43, 63 and 15 so he certainly knows how to go about his business on this track.