Real Madrid vs AC Milan Prediction: CL royalty meet at the Bernabeu

Two European giants clash on Tuesday night at the Santiago Bernabéu in the Champions League. Real Madrid and AC Milan are the two most successful clubs in the competition’s history with 22 European titles between them.

Football Odds

Given that, it’s perhaps surprising that the sides haven’t met in a competitive setting since the Champions League group stage back in 2010. Real Madrid have won the competition six times since then, but it has been a more barren era for Milan who haven’t made the final since their 2007 triumph over Liverpool in Athens.

They’ll head to the Spanish capital as the clear underdogs this week, with the daunting task of trying to stop a Real Madrid side that has won their last 10 home group or league stage matches in this competition, since a shock defeat against FC Sheriff over three years ago.

It’s eight wins out of nine at home in all competitions for Los Blancos this term. At times, they’ve been devastating in the final third, although very rarely for the full 90 minutes.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side scored five in the final half-hour to come from two down to win their 2024 Champions League final rematch against Borussia Dortmund in their last outing in this competition. They also survived some rocky moments to defeat Stuttgart 3-1 on the opening matchday, but head into this game with only six points on the board having suffered defeat in Lille in their only away fixture to date.

There are certainly some vulnerabilities that Milan will fancy they can target and this will be Real Madrid’s first match in 10 days, following the postponement of their weekend league game at Mestalla, due to the devastating floods in Valencia.

That means that Ancelotti and his players have had plenty of time to rest, but also stew over a painful 4-0 defeat to Barcelona in El Clásico. It was a game that saw Real Madrid exposed defensively in a disastrous second half, but also one that only added to worries about the balance of this team without Toni Kroos and with Kylian Mbappé in a reshaped attack.

The Frenchman was caught offside on an almost unbelievable eight occasions in that match and he’ll be hungry to bounce back well here with a big performance.

As for AC Milan, they’ve shown little so far this season to suggest they are going to be serious contenders in the Champions League. Indeed, they could face a battle just to progress to the knockout stage, having lost two of their three matches in the new league phase so far.

Despite taking the lead in just the third minute through in-form Christian Pulisic on matchday one, they were ultimately outclassed by Liverpool with Arne Slot’s side winning 3-1 at San Siro. Defeat in Leverkusen followed, but Milan did get off the mark in their last Champions League fixture, with a brace from Tijjani Reijnders sending them on their way to a 3-1 win over Club Brugge.

Reijnders was also on target at the weekend, scoring the only goal as Milan won at Monza in Serie A. They are only 7th in the Italian top flight though and that was their first victory this season outside of their own stadium, although Paulo Fonseca’s side did manage to win the derby against Inter in September in what was technically an away fixture.

The Italian giants head to Madrid as still something of a work in progress under the guidance of the former Lille boss. Pulisic has been their outstanding attacking player so far this term with seven goals and three assists in all competitions, but the likes of Reijnders and Rafael Leão can certainly ask questions of the home defence. It’ll also be a quicker than expected return to Madrid for former Atleti and Real striker Álvaro Morata.

Team News:

Rodrygo is back in training for Real Madrid following injury, but in a long season, Ancelotti may prefer a cautious approach before rushing him back into the team for this match. It’s a similar story for Thibaut Courtois who is nearing fitness, but Andriy Lunin is expected to continue in goal here.

David Alaba and Dani Carvajal are longer-term absentees and won’t feature, with a similar eleven expected to the one that started the Clásico. Veteran midfielder Luka Modrić is perhaps the most likely player to break into the starting lineup, although Arda Güler and Fran García are also options should Ancelotti want to mix things up against his old club.

As for Milan, they will be without the injured quartet of Matteo Gabbia, Luka Jovic, Ismaël Bennacer and Alessandro Florenzi once more.

Fonseca rested Leão, as well as Emerson Royal and Ruben Loftus-Cheek against Monza at the weekend, but all three are likely to return to the starting lineup. Tammy Abraham should also be part of the travelling party following his injury troubles, but will almost certainly have to be content with a place on the bench.

Match Odds: Real Madrid vs AC Milan

Real Madrid are the 4/9 favourites to bounce back from Clásico humiliation with a victory here. The Draw is priced at 18/5, while Milan are available at 6/1 to leave the Bernabéu with maximum points.

Both teams to score is available at 8/13, a winning bet in four of Real Madrid’s last six home fixtures. Over 2.5 goals is short at 4/9, while you can back Over 3.5 goals at 6/5, a bet that has landed in five of the last six games at the Bernabéu.

Milan have only failed to score on two occasions so far this season and they are available at 1/2 to score Over 0.5 goals here. You can also back the visitors to Win either half at 21/10.

Much of the focus will be on the strikers in this game and they all have their own reasons to be motivated.

Álvaro Morata is not the most popular figure in these parts and he’s available at 3/1 to score anytime against his old club. Kylian Mbappé will be hungry to prove a point after a miserable showing on his first big night as a Real Madrid player, with the Frenchman priced at 3/1 to score first and 4/5 to score anytime.

This will also be the first match for Vinícius Júnior since he missed out on the Ballon d'Or, sparking Real Madrid’s somewhat embarrassing boycott of the ceremony. You can back the Brazilian to bounce back by scoring anytime at 5/4 here, while he’s available at tempting odds of 7/2 to register 1+ assists via the Bet Builder.

Real Madrid win & Over 2.5 goals @ 9/10

Aside from international fortnights, breaks of more than a week are an absolute rarity for Europe’s elite clubs these days, so Real Madrid should be really fresh and ready to go here. Milan are also at a slight disadvantage having played a tough game against Napoli in Serie A last Tuesday, before their weekend outing. That only makes a tricky assignment even more challenging for Fonseca’s side.

They’ll fancy they can ask some questions of a not entirely convincing Real Madrid defence. However, the home team have so much individual quality with the likes of Vinícius, Mbappé and Jude Bellingham on the pitch, that they should have enough to ultimately overpower what is by no means one of the great AC Milan sides.

As a result, I’m backing Real Madrid and Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.

Bet Builder - Vinícius Júnior 1+ shots on target & Rafael Leão 1+ shots on target @ 6/5

A season-ending injury for Dani Carvajal has created a real problem for Real Madrid. Lucas Vázquez has done a decent job of rotating in for Carvajal for some of the more favourable fixtures in recent years, but he has already been exposed defensively on a number of occasions since effectively becoming the first choice right-back last month.

It’s seven goals conceded in three games since the Carvajal injury for Los Blancos, and Milan will surely look to target Vázquez by getting Leão on the ball as much as possible here. The Portuguese winger is not having his best season overall, but he’s still averaging 3.0 shots per game in Serie A.

Fresh from a brilliant hat-trick against Dortmund in his last Champions League outing, Vinícius should also have a major role to play in this one and I’m using the Bet Builder to back Vinícius Júnior 1+ shots on target and Rafael Leão 1+ shots on target at 6/5.

Football Betting Tips, from Betfred Insights.