Luton Town vs West Brom Prediction: Friday night no winner?

It felt like two steps forward and three steps back for Luton Town last weekend as they threw away a two-goal lead to lose 3-2 to a struggling Coventry City outfit. After a 3-0 success over rivals Watford, and a good performance despite a 2-1 home loss against league leaders Sunderland, the Hatters look as though they had turned a corner before that trip to the CBS Arena. 

Now the pressure has been heaped upon Rob Edwards, as his side sit in the bottom three after 11 matches. Next up for the struggling gaffer, is a home game under the lights on Friday night against West Brom (20:00, Sky Sports+). Below you can find my Luton Town vs West Brom prediction featuring betting odds and team news. 

Team News

It will be interesting to see how Edwards approaches this one. He was widely criticised for removing the attacking trio of Carlton Morris, Elijah Adebayo and Tahith Chong at the CBS, with his experienced front two both finding the net in that game. They scored goals in the Premier League but are yet to click into gear this term completely, with Jacob Brown and Cauley Woodrow alternative options from the bench. 

One absentee will be dominant centre-back Tom Holmes, who was shown a late red card in that 3-2 defeat and they’ve got issues in picking a back five. Alfie Doughty is suspended after picking up his fifth yellow of the season, Reece Burke has missed the last two games, Amari'i Bell has been out since mid-September and Mads Andersen and Teden Mendi have also been sidelined for a while. 

18-year-old Joe Johnson is likely to replace Doughty on the left, but at the back there isn’t a natural replacement for Holmes if Burke remains out. Marvelous Nakamba may be forced into the back three, or Edwards may choose to switch up his formation and play four at the back, including Nakamba or Liam Walsh in midfield to strengthen the middle of the park. 

Carlos Corberan is going to be without Daryl Dike and Kyle Bartley while Paddy McNair and Semi Ajayi are doubts for the trip to Kenilworth Road. McNair was forced off just minutes into the game against Cardiff, while Ajayi also picked up an injury and was replaced by Mason Holgate. 

Just like Luton, it leaves West Brom light on centre-back cover, with Bartley now ruled out for up to six weeks. Holgate is likely to start this one at the back, while the impressive Uros Racic could also do a job at centre-back if both Ajayi and McNair fail to recover. Josh Maja, Grady Diangana and Mikey Johnston should continue as the front three despite failing to score vs Cardiff. 

Luton Town vs West Brom Odds

Luton are priced at 7/5 to win this game, with West Brom available at 7/4. That gives the Hatters  an implied win probability of 41% heading into this crucial clash. A draw can be backed at 21/10, over 2.5 goals is 1/1 and BTTS is 8/11. Josh Maja is the favourite to open the scoring at 6/1. 

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11

Despite the distinct lack of defenders on show due to injuries, I just can’t see this being an open an entertaining affair - it simply isn’t in West Brom’s nature. Corberan’s side are always well organised and in recent weeks, their games have seen a distinct lack of goals. They’ve conceded just seven goals this season but all five of their latest outings have seen under 2.5 goals, as Corberan tries to build on his solid back line. 

Although the personnel could change due to those injuries, I don’t think the game plan will, so I’m happy to back West Brom to keep the score down here. Luton meanwhile will have lost any momentum they gained last week, and I think there’s a real chance the crowd could turn against them if they don’t take an early lead. They were in the Premier League last season, but now find themselves in the bottom three. Remember what happened to Sunderland…