Preston North End vs Arsenal Prediction: PNE can push Gunners all the way

Arsenal earned a 2-2 draw with Liverpool on Sunday but they will turn their attention to the Carabao Cup on Wednesday night as they travel to Deepdale to take on Preston North End (19:45, Sky Sports+). It’s a competition that takes on extra importance for the Gunners this year as despite their excellent league performances, they haven’t won a major trophy since lifting the FA Cup in 2020. 

Fail to win another trophy this season and that will be five consecutive years without silverware for Mikel Arteta. Meanwhile, Preston currently sit 16th in the Championship, but are unbeaten in their last five outings. Below you can find my Preston North End vs Arsenal predictions. 

Team News

Coming off the back of a three-game week, and with another to come starting on Saturday, Paul Heckingbottom may be tempted into changes for this cup test. His side are incredibly settled right now, and set up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, but they suffered a major blow at Plymouth as Robbie Brady suffered ankle ligament damage. 

He is now set to be sidelined for a while, with Brad Potts or Duane Holmes likely to deputise for now. Emil Riis may have to continue up front given a lack of other options, while a lot of the senior players will want the opportunity to test themselves against elite opposition. 

Freddie Woodman has a settled back three of Jordan Storey, Liam Lindsay and Andrew Hughes in front of him, with Jack Whatmough an option to replace any of that trio if needed. Kaine Kesler-Hayden has been terrific on the right while Ryan Ledson could bring extra energy to the midfield having been left on the bench on Saturday. Josh Bowler could return from the illness that saw him miss the trip to Devon.

Arsenal’s injury issues are well documented, but they aren’t all that bad in truth. Gabriel is unlikely to be risked while Jurrien Timber is also going to sit out having suffered with cramp vs Liverpool. We can expect a boatload of changes from Arteta with Riccardo Calafiori, Martin Odegaard, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Kieran Tierney all in the treatment room.

Neto is cup-tied so Jack Porter or Tommy Setford could start in goal, while fellow teenagers Ethan Nwaneri, Myles Lewis-Skelly and Josh Nichols should also feature. Gabriel Jesus is likely to lead the line while Oleksandr Zinchenko and Raheem Sterling will provide some experience in an otherwise youthful line-up.

Preston North End vs Arsenal Odds

Preston are priced at 11/1 to win this game, with Arsenal available at 2/9. That gives the Gunners an implied win probability of 81%, while a draw can be backed at 11/2. Over 2.5 goals is 1/2, BTTS is 1/1 and Gabriel Jesus is the favourite to score first at 9/2. 

Preston +2 handicap @ 11/10

With Arsenal a very short price to win this game, and Arteta set to make a lot of changes, I think there is some value in backing Preston with a +2 handicap. Sure, they are massive underdogs heading into this last 16 encounter, but they’ve proven themselves to be a competitive and well-structured team in the second tier this season. 

Their back three is solid, and the wing-backs can cause problems, although Brady will be missed. Meanwhile, they have a lot of physicality in the team that may be able to overpower Arsenal’s teenage stars. I think this will be a tight game, and although I think Arsenal can win this game, I don’t think they will run riot at Deepdale. If the Gunners win by just one goal, this will be a winning selection, and ultimately, progressing is all that matters for Arteta - so they are unlikely to go for the jugular. 

Half-time result: Draw @ 15/8

I don’t think this is going to be a particularly comfortable evening for Arsenal and the changes could cause them some issues in terms of fluidity. I think the best selection we can come up with is for the two teams to go in level at the break. Preston will be right up for this and want to get off to a positive start in front of their own fans, and their physicality should serve them well in this tie. 

I think they can get to half-time at 0-0, which has been the HT score in two of the last four Arsenal games. PNE have drawn three of their last four games and although Arsenal’s big guns may win this tie from the bench, that will only happen late on. I’m happy to back Heckingbottom to get his side to half-time with the scores level. 

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