Pakistan v England Prediction: Bet on 11/8 Pakistan to clinch the Series

It's the Third Test at Multan starting at 06:00 on Thursday with live broadcast on Sky Sports Cricket as they play out the decider in Rawalpindi in what has been an intriguing Series.    

Fresh from a 5/2 winner on Jack Leach to be England Top first innings bowler last time from his two bets, Jamie Pacheco considers Pakistan the value for the win and is backing 9/2 shot Zak Crawley to top score this time as he takes us through his Pakistan vs England Predictions for the match in his full preview for us here at Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of our markets and Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

2nd Test Recap  

Pakistan took a hell of a lot of gambles ahead of that Second Test. They opted to use the same strip at Multan, and they dropped three mammoth names of Pakistan cricket in Naseem Shah, Shaheen Shah Afridi and Babar Azam. Then they gave a debut to Kamran Ghulam at the age of 29 in Azam's place and also picked Sajid Khan and Noman Ali, who had less than 25 Tests between them going into the game.  

To say the gamble paid off is putting it mildly. Ghulam got a crucial first innings century while Khan and Ali took all 20 England wickets between them, with a total of 297 in the fourth innings always looking a tough prospect on an increasingly wearing pitch.  

Still, that all-important coin going the other way could have made all the difference before a ball was bowled in anger and it could easily be 2-0 England by now.  

It's both funny and fascinating how despite endless chats about pitches, selection, tactics, field placements, scoring rates, weather, declarations and what not, a coin toss is (still) arguably the most important element of the game in Test cricket.  

Another gamble that paid off was our bet on Jack Leach to be England first innings bowler at 5/2. It's not often an England spinner does the business in the first innings of a Test, but conditions are all important and spin from the start it did, his 4-114 trumping Brydon Carse's three wickets, for a handy winner.  

Interestingly, our other bet of the match on Salman Agha (albeit for 0.5 points rather than 1) top-scoring for Pakistan with the bat didn't win; but he top-scored in the second innings with 63. Too bad.   

Pakistan  

We've covered some of the vital points about Pakistan selection already and it's safe to assume that the three who came into the side will all keep their places on the back of three excellent performances in their own way.  

However, there may be some concern about the fact that Khan and Ali took ALL of England's wickets. In other words, a suggestion that they need more from the likes of Zahid Mahmood and Noman Ali, who as we know both went wicketless. Although the latter did at least chip in with 32 runs in the first innings.  

Uncapped 21-year-old Mehran Mumtaz is in the squad but it's somewhat unlikely they'll blood him in this game so it would be no surprise if they played the same side, which includes seven men who can bowl spin.  

Possible XI: Shafique, Ayub, Masood, Ghulam, Shakeel, Rizwan, Agha, Jamal, Noman Ali, Sajid Khan, Zahid Mahmood.  

England 

Other than a couple of dropped catches, it's hard to be too critical of England.  

Leach had a good game with seven wickets, Ben Duckett scored a century and Brydon Carse was a real workhorse, bowling plenty of overs on a pitch that wasn't going to help the seamers, and did so in stifling heat. They've found a good one in Carse, who has impressive stamina, a quick arm action and plenty of heart, which goes a long way in this game.  

As we said already, the toss going their way could have made all the difference and over five days, they were second best to two excellent spinners. No shame in that.   

Anyway, England have already announced their team for Thursday and Carse is unlucky to miss out as they obviously feel they need to manage his workload after last week's exertions, with Gus Atkinson replacing him.  

With the wicket likely to be a raging turner, England's hand was forced, so Rehan Ahmed comes in for the decider with Matthew Potts making way.  

Possible XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Atkinson, Leach, Ahmed, Bashir.  

Pitch and conditions  

Rakes, heaters, fans, you name it. Pakistan have really pulled out all the stops to create as much turn in Rawalpindi as possible for this one.  

But it may be decent for batting on for the first two days before it starts to dry (even more) and cracks emerge, so wickets are far more likely to fall in quick succession as the game progresses.  

Having said all that, when Harry Brook was asked about the pitch, his response was "God Knows!' so maybe it's not as clear cut as all that after all and may have a few surprises in it, either for better (more runs) or worse (more spin, big runs at a premium). 

This was of course the scene for that memorable England win two years ago where all of Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Brook and Ollie Pope scored first innings centuries and managed to bowl Pakistan out in the nick of time for a famous win.  

Far more worryingly for Pakistan, Rawalpindi was also where they lost back-to-back Tests (they'd never lost even one to Bangladesh before that) in August this year.  

Pakistan vs England 3rd Test Odds

It's 11/8 the hosts (implied probability 42.1%), even money on England (50%) and 11/2 the draw (15.4%). The latter can't instantly be dismissed but is unlikely, not just in terms of what we know about the preparation of the pitch but also because there's only been one draw here in the last six.  

Pakistan must be considered the value. If they win the toss, they'll be in pole position to win the match, so (assuming you're discounting the draw), you're getting considerably better than even money on something that is…literally even money.  

Or is it? England have now lost seven tosses in a row so….no…that's not worth going into, it's just a quirky stat. A coin toss remains a 50/50 chance whether it's among mates in the pub or at the start of a Test match. That much we do know.   

I still think that Pakistan have the better spinners and it's hard to imagine Khan and Ali won't get more support from the others this time. Leach is top class, but Bashir is pretty fortunate to have six wickets in the Series because he hasn't bowled particularly well, while this will be a big Test for Ahmed, coming in for his first appearance of the Series.  

The fly in the ointment are those three consecutive losses here for Pakistan but in the one against England the tourists deserved plenty of credit whereas the two against Bangladesh were real low-points for them that are just part of the game.  

We can live with that. Pakistan it is.