Football Bet of the Day: 10/1 shot from the Riverside

The Championship offers up a whole host of games this midweek, and we are taking a look at a particularly interesting clash for our Football Bet of the Day for Wednesday, October 23. Middlesbrough host Sheffield United at the Riverside and this game, live on Sky Sports Football at 20:00, should be a belter.

Below you can find my Football Bet of the Day, and the reasoning behind it.

Now, this one might seem a long-shot, but its one I am happy to get behind. Sheffield United have one of the meanest defences in the Championship and have only conceded seven goals in their 10 matches so far. Their back four - or back five as it was against Leeds - is incredibly talented and they have one of the best goalkeepers in the league in the form of Michael Cooper. 

So, with the Blades clearly a tough defensive unit, why am I backing both teams to score in both halves? Well, they have just been beaten away to Leeds and I feel will come out of their shell more in this encounter, with Jesurun Rak-Sakyi likely to come back into the starting XI. 

The main reason I am tempted to go for goals in this one however, is because of expected goals, or xG. Middlesbrough currently sit in 10th in the Championship having scored just 10 goals in 10 matches so far. Nothing to write home about surely? However, they are by far the most wasteful side in the division.

Middlesbrough vs Sheff Utd Odds

Their xG per 90 currently stands at 1.70 - meaning Carrick’s men are creating more chances than any second-tier outfit this term. Leeds United, who are now odds-on favourites to win the league this season are creating 1.54 xG per 90 so far this season so you can see just how exciting this Boro team could be. The only issue they have is that they are not taking their chances, with Emmanuel Latte Lath in particular missing several key opportunities in 2024/25.

Boro’s conversion rate is by far the lowest in the division, currently sitting at just 3.9 per cent. The next worst is Coventry City on 5.2 per cent for some perspective. But what does all this mean? Boro are missing massive chances and the law of averages suggests that if they keep this up, they will score plenty of goals this season and rise towards the top of the table. 

The amount of major opportunities they are squandering right now is almost laughable - well unless you are a Boro fan. But there’s an awful lot to be positive about and it is only a matter of time before things click into gear and they absolutely hammer an opponent. I don’t think that will be Sheffield United given they are one of the top teams in the league, but I believe this game could contain loads of goals, contrary to what we have seen from the Blades so far. 

From an attacking sense they’ve been good, scoring 12 in 10, but they are also drastically underperforming their xG of 1.45 per 90. With Callum O’Hare, Rak-Sakyi and Gustavo Hamer, they’ve got immense quality going forward and it wouldn’t surprise me if they cause Boro serious problems and create multiple big chances. 

It means my Football Bet of the Day for Wednesday, October 23 is both teams to score in both halves at the Riverside, which comes in at 10/1, or an implied probability of 9.1 per cent.