India v New Zealand Prediction: Will Young do it at 5/1 in the 2nd Test?

India host New Zealand on Thursday with a start time of 05:00 as they look to recover from that First Test loss where the tourists shocked the cricketing world after winning at pre-match odds of 14/1. The match is live on TNT Sports 1.  

Jamie Pacheco has 11/2 and 5/1 selections ahead of this one as he takes us through his India vs New Zealand Predictions for the match in Pune...

1st Test Recap  

The first Test was a reminder that there are certainly no certainties in this format of the game. The draw was short odds on (8/13) before the match due to bad weather with India seen as having a decent chance to overcome the poor forecast at 6/4 and New Zealand far less so, all the way out at 14/1. 

But the upset was very much on after India were rolled over for just 46 after the Kiwi quicks did a fantastic job on a lively pitch before responding with 402 thanks to 91 from Devon Conway and a brilliant 134 from the impressive Rachin Ravindra in just his 10th Test. 

In fairness to India, they weren't throwing in the towel and scored 462 the second time round but it was too little too late and New Zealand made light work of a fourth-innings chase to secure a famous victory.  

No joy with our bets in what was a pretty crazy Test but there was certainly a lot to take on board from what we saw last week.  

India  

Rishab Pant suffered an injury while keeping wicket in the first innings that prevented him from doing so for much of the game and meant (sub keeper) Dhruv Jurel took over. Pant returned to score a superb 99 in the second time they batted but was clearly in some discomfort. But they'll be desperate for him to play here, and he should do just that.  

Shubman Gill missed the while game with an injury but should also be fine to play.  

Assuming he does, they have a hard choice to make. Sarfaraz Khan made 150 in the second innings that got them very much back in the game so it would be extremely harsh to drop him. Maybe KL Rahul, with scores of 0 and 12 in the game will be the one to make way. 

With the ball, Axar Patel may be preferred to Kuldeep Yadav if they feel they need more batting depth.   

Possible XI:  Sharma, Jaiswal, Gill, Kohli, Sarfaraz/Rahul, Pant, Jadeja, Ashwin, Axar Patel/Kuldeep, Bumrah, Siraj.  

New Zealand 

A fantastic win for the ages where everyone played their part.  

Tim Southee made an unlikely 65 from number nine in the first innings to go with a couple of wickets in the game, Henry took eight wickets, Ravindra had the game of his life with 183 runs in the match, and plenty of others chipped in.  

And they did it all without the steady hand of Kane Williamson. The former skipper is highly unlikely to play as he continues to recover from injury but at this rate, they don't need him; which is something you don't often say.  

So, they're likely to be unchanged. Why wouldn't they be?  

Possible XI: Latham, Conway, Young, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell, Phillips, Santner, Southee, Henry, Patel, O'Rourke. 

Pitch and conditions  

We're at Pune for this one and it will be a black-soil pitch meaning plenty of turn on offer throughout the match. It's also likely to have lower bounce, be flatter and slower. In other words, India, much like Pakistan against England, feel their best chance of getting back in the series is to prepare a raging turner as they feel that it's in the spin bowling department that they have the upper hand. Fair enough.  

There have only ever been two Tests here and the last one was in 2019 so that doesn't help us a great deal. They beat South Africa in that one but two years earlier lost to Australia.  

Virat Kohli scored 254 and Ravindra Jadeja 91 in that one in 2019; Ravi Ashwin took six wickets in the game.  

The first two hours may be for the quicks, but it will be a hard few days of work for the spinners.  

India vs New Zealand 2nd Test Odds

India are 3/10 (implied probability of 77%) here which is mighty short at first glance when you consider what happened in the first game.  

New Zealand at least have been shown some respect with their odds taking a big cut from 14/1 to 5/1 (16.7%). The question is: if it is taking turn from the very start and becomes a shootout between the spinners on each side, can they match India's? Hard to say because in the first match it was the quicks who got them in a position to win the match (and they're unlikely to have a chance to do so again) but you'd think India's spinners hold the edge.  

The draw is 11/2 (15.4%) and has some appeal because if it's flat and New Zealand bat first, 400 or so will make it hard for India to win the game and the tourists will be in no rush to get on with it.   

The 5/1 on the tourists is probably the value price of the three but it's quite a lot to expect New Zealand to do it all over again. Good on them if they do so but like in the First Test, we'll leave this one alone.  

India Top Batsman

Kohli scored that brilliant double-hundred here but that was five years ago. Despite a fine 70 in the second innings (he got 0 in the first) his form hasn't been the best recently, we have to swerve him as a shortish-looking 11/4 favourite.  

Sarfaraz Khan (9/2) will be feeling good about himself after that 150 last week and as we pointed out, has an excellent record in India.  

But at a bigger price of 11/2, I'll go with Pant. He should be fine to play after that injury and if it didn't hamper him too much in scoring 99, it should affect him even less a few days down the road.  He should bat at five and his aggressive style of play made up of sweeps, reverse sweeps, flicks and slogs could be what's required here to put bowlers off their lines. It's too big a price for a man of his ability.