Aston Villa vs Bologna Prediction: Villans to chalk up another CL victory

Aston Villa will be looking to make it three wins out of three in the league phase of the 2024/25 Uefa Champions League when they host Bologna at Villa Park on Tuesday evening (20:00, TNT Sports 1). By contrast, their Italian visitors have picked up just a single point in the competition and are yet to score, so all expectations are that Unai Emery's side will coast to another victory in Birmingham, but will events transpire to be that simple?

Below you can find my Aston Villa vs Bologna prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, as Emery eyes a 10th game unbeaten with the Villans.

Team News

Aston Villa were boosted by the returns to fitness of John McGinn, Jacob Ramsey and Boubacar Kamara for Saturday's 3-1 win at Fulham. Ramsey started the victory at Craven Cottage while McGinn was used as a second-half substitute, and both are in contention to begin Tuesday's game. Kamara, meanwhile, remained on the bench in west London and is only likely to be given a few minutes against Bologna as he works his way back to full fitness following an eight-month injury layoff.

Tyrone Mings was also passed fit for first-team action for the first time in over a year on Saturday but the defender was left out of the squad as Emery had too many players available; the increased squad size in Europe should hand him an opportunity to be part of things in midweek, however.

There were doubts around the availability of Ezri Konsa and Jaden Philogene heading into last weekend but the duo were named on the bench by Emery against the Cottagers, with Philogene coming on as a second-half substitute. The 22-year-old was in the thick of the action, receiving two yellows and being sent off, but his suspension doesn't carry through to the Champions League and thus he could start Tuesday's match with Konsa behind him at right-back.

Starting Konsa in that position would mean a demotion for regular right-back Matty Cash, who conceded a penalty at Fulham but was helped out by his goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez, who saved Andreas Pereira's first-half spot-kick. Ian Maatsen, who has made just one start for Villa this season, is another defender who will hope to play from the off on Tuesday, with the 2024 Champions League finalist with Borussia Dortmund a potential replacement for left-back Lucas Digne.

Colombian striker Jhon Duran, who was the match-winner off the bench in last month's famous 1-0 win over Bayern Munich at Villa Park, is likely to have to settle for a substitute role again with Ollie Watkins preferred up top.

Football Odds

Bologna will be without a host of stars for Tuesday's trip to Villa Park including Moroccan midfielder Oussama El Azzouzi and Scotland international Lewis Ferguson, who are both yet to feature this season due to injury.

Nicolo Cambiaghi is also ruled out after failing to recover from an August issue while Swiss star Dan Ndoye is a major doubt after missing Saturday's 2-2 draw at Genoa.

Croatian defender Martin Erlic, meanwhile, is out for a month and Villa loanee Samuel Iling-Junior is unlikely to face his parent club after straining the collateral medial ligament in his left knee. Michel Aebischer is also doubtful but there are hopes that Jhon Lucumi, who wasn't fit enough to start on Saturday, can recover in time for Tuesday's contest.

Giovanni Fabbian and Thijs Dallinga are in contention to play from the off against Villa after appearing as second-half substitutes away to Genoa.

Aston Villa vs Bologna Odds

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Villa are 8/13 to record a hat-trick of victories in the Champions League, giving them an implied win probability of 61.9%, while Bologna are 9/2, or an 18.2% chance, to triumph in Europe for the first time this term. A draw, meanwhile, is priced at 3/1.

Both teams to score is available at 4/5 and over 3.5 total goals at 2/1, while Watkins (13/10) is most fancied to score anytime followed by Duran (6/4), Morgan Rogers (21/10) and Leon Bailey (5/2). Dallinga (11/4) is shortest priced in the market for Bologna.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Aston Villa Win & Under 3.5 @ 5/4

Villa are on a roll at the moment, going nine games unbeaten since losing 2-0 at home to Arsenal on August 24. They've only drawn twice in that period, too, winning both of the Champions League contests so far against Young Boys (3-0) and Bayern (1-0) without conceding.

Their defence was a slight issue at the beginning of the season as they kept just one clean sheet in their first eight matches, but they recorded back-to-back shutouts against Bayern and Manchester United (0-0) before Raul Jimenez denied them a third at the weekend.

Meanwhile, seven of their 11 games have seen three goals or fewer, including both European outings so far.

Bologna have experienced an even higher percentage of their matches finishing with under 3.5 goals, with 80 per cent (8/10) seeing three or fewer, including their only two in the Champions League (0-0 draw at home to Shakhtar, 2-0 defeat away to Liverpool).

It's been a pretty disappointing start to the campaign for the Serie A side, who currently sit 13th in the table after eight games played. I Rossoblu have only won once under new boss Vincenzo Italiano, who replaced Thiago Motta in the summer, and that was a 2-1 success at Monza on September 22.

Bologna are now winless in their last four but they've drawn three of them and have only lost twice all season - the first defeat being 3-0 away to Napoli on August 25. They've drawn seven times and so can be regarded as a stubborn, if unspectacular side, in the early stages of the 2024/25 season.

I think they can make life difficult for the Villans, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them get on the scoresheet, despite missing several key players.

However, I don't envisage the Italians netting more than once, with a 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 win for Villa the most likely scorelines in my book.

As such, I'm going to play a Villa victory and under 3.5 total goals here.

Player to Receive a Card - Youri Tielemans (AVL) @ 18/5

Youri Tielemans has only been booked once this season, away at former club Leicester City in a 2-1 Premier League win for Villa in August, while he was also carded just three times in his debut league campaign for the Villans.

However, he saw yellow in two of his eight European starts for Emery's side in 2023/24, both at home against Legia Warsaw and Lille in the Uefa Conference League, a competition in which he averaged 1.3 fouls per game.

The Belgian has already committed three fouls in this season's premier European club competition, two away to Young Boys and one at home to Bayern, while his Premier League fouls average has risen from 0.7 fouls per game last season to 1.9 per game this term.

Of course, it's early days and that average is likely to come down as the campaign progresses, but it's still a big number that points to a player putting his foot in. There could be a variety of reasons for this, but I think the chief factor is the departure of Douglas Luiz, who left for Juventus in the summer, and the absence of holding midfielder Kamara, who hasn't featured since February 11 and only returned to the matchday squad on Saturday.

Kamara isn't likely to make Tuesday's starting XI, which should mean Tielemans carrying on as he has been in the first two months of the season, and that could mean the 27-year-old making a few more fouls and the referee scribbling his name in his notebook.

At 18/5, I think it's well worth getting behind a Tielemans card before Kamara comes back in and takes away some of his defensive responsibilities.

Offers

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