Michael McKinson vs Tulani Mbenge Predictions: Long night in store for the southpaw

Michael McKinson takes on Tulani Mbenge for the vacant IBO welterweight championship this Saturday, October 19. The bout takes place at the Copper Box in London on the undercard of Adam Azim vs Ohara Davies. Sky Sports Main Event will broadcast the event live.

Here are my McKinson vs Mbenge predictions ahead of this welterweight battle.

McKinson gamely took on world class American prospect Vergil Ortiz Jr back in 2022. The Brit’s movement and southpaw awkwardness kept him in there, with Ortiz even suffering a cut. But eventually, McKinson found himself walked down and stopped inside nine rounds. A brutal introduction to world level against a fighter tipped for greatness.

But McKinson was flawless before that setback and he has returned to those winning ways. The 30-year-old has gone 4-0 since, stopping two opponents. Considering he only has four total professional knockouts, the fact two arrived in quick succession suggests McKinson may be adding an edge to his game. 

McKinson will need it here. Mbenge is no opponent’s idea of a good time. 20-2, his losses came in narrow points defeats to Sebastian Formella and Souleymane Cissokho. Even if you beat Mbenge, you have to work ridiculously hard to do it. The South African has shown himself to be an incredibly effective proving ground.

Some, such as former world champion Miguel Vazquez, haven’t been up to the task. Mbenge made the Mexican quit in nine rounds. A former IBO and African champion, he is an incredibly hard man to beat. Mbenge is rated as the 11th-best welterweight in the world by the WBC, a ranking McKinson will have his eye on as he takes on this task.

The IBO prize on the line might not be a major world title, but it is something to fight for. A target that, if captured, can open doors. After all, the likes of Oleksandr Usyk and Artur Beterbiev carry around their division’s version of the lesser green belt. The victor here will be able to manoeuvre their way into big fights with the IBO bauble on the line.

Whatever belt is on the line, this is an excellent fight. Both men are ambitious and close to their athletic peak. McKinson is 30 while Mbenge is 33. Neither is looking to waste any time. Both know what it’s like to rebound from a defeat. These men will be locked in for this one.

McKinson is measured, boxing at distance and sizing opponents up with a southpaw jab. He is quick to spring into action when challenged, but if not he’s happy to outbox foes at distance. Mbenge might not let him get off lightly, though.

Mbenge likes to close the distance on his foes, narrowing the angles to throw awkward shots. The South African is rangy but often fights compact. For a fighter who has the physical gifts to box at distance, Mbenge does sometimes get drawn into wars.

I could see that here as both men abandon the distance game and throw short punches. We could end up transitioning from a tactical chess match to a firefight quickly here. From a fan’s perspective, that is probably the exact fight you want to see. What will be interesting is who that scenario favours. Saturday holds all the answers.

Michael McKinson vs Tulani Mbenge Fight Odds

McKinson is a 4/7 favourite here while the teak-tough Mbenge is priced at 11/8. A draw is available at 14/1.

Michael McKinson vs Tulani Mbenge Full Card

Michael McKinson vs Tulani Mbenge

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Shannon Courtenay vs Catherine Tacone Ramos

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Michael McKinson vs Tulani Mbenge Prediction

This is a tricky night for McKinson. I think he’ll win, but nobody gets Mbenge out of there. The South African will still be standing at the end of this IBO title tussle. But I am tipping McKinson to take home the belt. My pick is McKinson to win on points at 8/11.

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