Bulgaria vs Luxembourg Prediction: Hosts to prove a tough nut to crack again

Bulgaria made a positive start to their Uefa Nations League campaign last month, following up a goalless draw against Belarus with a 1-0 win at home to Northern Ireland. The onus is now on the Lions to continue their form into October, as they prepare for two further Group C3 games.

First up to face Ilian Iliev's side are Luxembourg, who are pointless after losing 2-0 in Northern Ireland and 1-0 at home to Belarus. The two sides go head-to-head at the Stadion Hristo Botev in Plovdiv on Saturday (17:00), and you can build up to the action by checking out my Bulgaria vs Luxembourg prediction down below.

Team News

Leeds United midfielder Ilian Gruev recently sustained a serious knee injury and so will be unable to return to the national team until 2025. That will be a big blow to Bulgaria as the 24-year-old has been crucial to the eight-game unbeaten run they are currently on.

One bit of good news, though, is that Filip Krastev is free to return after sitting out the victory over Northern Ireland through suspension. The Zwolle midfielder should come into the starting XI for Kraev.

Kiril Despodov was the hero last month as he struck the only goal of the game against Northern Ireland in Plovdiv; the PAOK forward is likely to be joined in the front three again by Levski striker Aleksandar Kolev and Rizespor winger Martin Minchev.

Football Odds

Lars Gerson, capped 98 times by Luxembourg, has been dropped from October's squad by head coach Luc Holtz, who has also opted against selecting Olivier Thill.

Vincent Thill and Yvandro Borges miss out through injury.

Meanwhile, Gerson Rodrigues has been recalled by Holtz after a disciplinary issue saw their all-time record goalscorer axed from last month's defeat to Belarus. The 29-year-old has only played once since for Chinese second-division side Guangxi Pingguo Haliao, so it remains to be seen where his fitness levels are at.

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Bulgaria vs Luxembourg page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Bulgaria are unbeaten since October 2023 and are 8/11 favourites to make it back-to-back wins on Saturday. That gives the hosts an implied win probability of 57.9%, while Luxembourg are 4/1 (20%) to break out of a four-game winless run in Plovdiv. The draw, meanwhile, can be backed at 23/10.

Both teams to score was a winner when these sides last met on Bulgarian soil in September 2016; you can get 6/5 for BTTS - Yes in this weekend's match, and 8/13 for BTTS - No.

Despodov (21/10) heads the anytime goalscorer market and is priced at 5/1 to fire the first goal, with Rodrigues (3/1) considered Luxembourg's most likely goalscorer.

Total Goals - Under 1.5 @ 13/8

Bulgaria ended 2023 with a couple of 2-2 draws against Hungary and Serbia, but none of their six games so far this year have seen three goals, let alone four. Both of their wins - a March international friendly versus Tanzania and last month's UNL contest with Northern Ireland - saw just a single strike from Despodov, and their highest-scoring encounters have been 1-1 draws with Azerbaijan and Slovenia. The remaining matches both ended 0-0 - versus Romania and Belarus.

Evidently, Bulgaria are set up superbly at the back, keeping four clean sheets in their last six games, with neither Belarus nor Northern Ireland able to breach their defence in this Nations League campaign.

Goals have also been lacking in Luxembourg's group matches so far, with just three across defeats to the same opposition. The Red Lions haven't scored themselves since beating Kazakhstan 2-1 in a March friendly, blanking in subsequent defeats to France (0-3), Belgium (0-3), Northern Ireland (0-2) and Belarus (0-1).

Under 1.5 total goals has landed in four of Bulgaria's last six matches and I'm happy to take on a fifth in seven on Saturday at 13/8.

The absence of Gruev will hamper the hosts' ambition to dominate the midfield, and I don't see them playing much differently from how they have been previously, looking to find a goal and stand firm.

Luxembourg, meanwhile, will be looking to stay in the game as long as possible and perhaps nick one on the counter.

Scorecast - Bulgaria to win 1-0 & Kiril Despodov to score first @ 18/1

I'm already backing under 1.5 total goals; the question is whether I think the game will end goalless or that one of the sides can take all three points in Plovdiv.

Given Bulgaria's form in the past 12 months, I have to go in the direction of the Lions, who beat the odds to overcome Northern Ireland last time out. They failed to find a way past Belarus three days prior but did dominate proceedings in Zalaegerszeg, Hungary, and may have rallied to a late victory were it not for Krastev's 73rd-minute dismissal.

Slovenia and Romania, two countries gearing up for Euro 2024, were both unable to triumph against Bulgaria in June as they each drew, just like Serbia and Hungary in qualifiers last November. Those four stalemates highlight just how resilient this Bulgarian team is, and they've managed to beat both Tanzania and Northern Ireland this year.

Those two wins were achieved courtesy of star striker Despodov, who also struck in the 1-1 draw with Slovenia. The 27-year-old has scored three times for his national team this year to put him on 15 international goals in 51 appearances, which is a very respectable record.

Despodov also bagged against Serbia and Hungary at the end of last year and has netted five of Bulgaria's last eight goals, underlining his importance to the team.

Backing Despodov to score in a 1-0 win for Bulgaria at 18/1 on Saturday looks like great value considering this bet has already landed twice this year.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any Nations League game on Friday or Saturday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Sunday’s Nations League games.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.