Gibraltar vs San Marino Prediction: Los Llanis to edge out spirited visitors

While a heavyweight clash takes place between Italy and Belgium in Rome on Thursday night, the merits of the Uefa Nations League can be found over in Gibraltar at the Europa Sports Complex, where Los Llanis host San Marino in Group D1 (19:45).

Below you can find my Gibraltar vs San Marino prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, as these two nations meet for the third time in international football.

Team News

Gibraltar's squad for their October internationals against San Marino and Liechtenstein doesn't feature Magpies' Dayle Coeling who, with 32 caps, is their most experienced international goalkeeper ever. The 27-year-old, however, was sent off inside the first 26 minutes of Gibraltar's 1-0 defeat to Lithuania on March 21 and hasn't played for his country since, despite being selected for the last two camps.

Europa FC shot-stopper Bradley Banda has been the beneficiary of Coeling's demotion, starting Gibraltar's last three matches and conceding just three times. He also kept a clean sheet in a 1-0 victory over Andorra last month as Los Llanis kicked off their Nations League campaign in fine fashion.

There's plenty of experience in front of Banda, however, as Braintree Town's Louie Annesley (45 caps) joins St. Joseph's Jayce Olivero (60 caps) in defence.

Gibraltar's captain and most-capped player Liam Walker (81 caps), who opened the scoring and missed a penalty in last month's 2-2 draw with Liechtenstein, is named as one of nine midfielders in Julio Cesar Ribas' squad. The 36-year-old St Joseph's man isn't even the oldest player selected by Ribas, though, as the Uruguayan head coach has once again called up Lincoln Red Imps forward Lee Casciaro at the ripe old age of 43.

Casciaro is utilised more as a substitute these days, with club teammate Tjad De Barr more likely to get the starting nod up top.

Football Odds

San Marino has the smallest population of any Uefa nation, which goes some way to explaining their horrendous record in international football, but La Serenissima should be heading into Thursday's game on a high after opening up their Nations League campaign with a 1-0 win against Liechtenstein last month - just their second-ever victory, and first since 2004 (also 1-0 versus Liechtenstein).

However, Sammaurese midfielder Lorenzo Capicchioni, who played 80 minutes of that triumph and started the 1-0 friendly defeat to Moldova five days later, is out of this month's squad and will be unable to join Victor San Marino's Nicko Sensoli, who scored the only goal of the game against Liechtenstein to earn himself hero status, on the field in Gibraltar.

San Marino's captain and most-capped player, La Fiorita forward Matteo Vitaioli - who missed his side's iconic victory - is free to return to competitive action, though.

Gibraltar vs San Marino Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Gibraltar vs San Marino page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

After drawing with Wales and Liechtenstein either side of a win against Andorra, Gibraltar are looking to extend the longest unbeaten run in their history when they face San Marino on Thursday.

The hosts are 8/15, or a 65.2% chance, to beat San Marino for the second time after winning their first-ever meeting 1-0 in September 2020. You can get 13/5 for a repeat of the result - a draw - between these sides the last time they faced off in November 2020, while the visitors are 11/2 (15.4%) if you fancy more history to be made.

Both teams to score has failed to land in either of the previous two games between these sides; it's 6/4 for BTTS - Yes this week, and 1/2 for BTTS - No.

De Barr (9/5) is favourite to score anytime, followed by compatriot Jaiden Bartolo (9/4), with San Marino's Casciaro and Walker joining Gibraltar duo Michael Ruiz and Liam Jessop on 3/1.

To Win to Nil - Gibraltar @ 21/20

Gibraltar head into Thursday's contest on the back of a three-game unbeaten run that saw them keep a clean sheet in the first two - a goalless draw with Wales and a 1-0 victory over Andorra. They should really have made it back-to-back wins against Liechtenstein last time out as they took the lead twice and had a spot-kick saved, while their opponent's second equaliser, to make it 2-2, came in the 14th minute of second-half added time.

Despite that late disappointment, Gibraltar should still be in a confident mood ahead of the visit of San Marino, who lost all 10 games in 2023 and have been beaten four out of six times this calendar year.

However, San Marino sprung a surprise - of sorts - last month when they picked up just their second-ever victory in international football, edging out Liechtenstein in Serravalle. They were unable to build upon that result as they lost 1-0 to Moldova five days later, but after blanking in their first seven games of 2023, taking their goalless run to eight matches, five strikes in their last nine contests is a marked improvement.

San Marino netted in three consecutive games against Denmark, Kazakhstan and Finland at the end of last year, but have been shut out in three of their six matches since, with each of Saint Kitts and Nevis, Slovakia and Moldova stopping them from scoring. Five of their six goals since December 2022 have come in Serravalle, highlighting their struggles in away outings, and it's unlikely to get much easier for them in Gibraltar, where Andorra were beaten 1-0 by Los Llanis last month. Gibraltar also kept a clean sheet against Wales in Faro/Loule on June 6 and restricted Scotland to two strikes three days earlier.

After a tough period in 2023 and the beginning of this year where they lost 13 games in a row, Gibraltar look to be on the up, and despite San Marino's own improvement, the hosts should have too much for their visitors on Thursday.

Anytime Goalscorer - James Scanlon (GIB) @ 7/2

I think there's some value to be found in the anytime goalscorer market here. I initially considered Gibraltar's record appearance maker and scorer Walker (16/5), who opened the scoring for his country in the 2-2 draw with Liechtenstein last month.

However, I eventually settled on Manchester United youngster James Scanlon, who played the duration of the stalemate and thought he had won the contest with a strike in the 97th minute - his first senior international goal - before Nicolas Hasler equalised seven minutes later.

Scanlon was born in England but represents Gibraltar through his Gibraltarian mother and became the first Manchester United player to represent the country when he made his senior national team debut in March 2024.

The 18-year-old has since appeared a further five times for Gibraltar and has started their last four games, highlighting his growing importance in the setup, and a first international goal last time out will have done wonders for his confidence, which was boosted further by four strikes in a 9-0 routing of Blackburn Rovers U18s at the end of last month.

At 7/2, there are seven players listed ahead of Scanlon in the anytime goalscorer market, and with a few of them less likely to start than the teenager, I think it's worth a punt on the Man United attacker to make it two in two for his country.

Offers

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