Raquel Pennington vs Julianna Pena Prediction: Expect grappling from these well-matched fighters

UFC Bantamweight Champion Raquel Pennington defends her crown against Julianna Pena this Saturday, October 5, at UFC 307. The bout takes place at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. TNT Sports will cover the action live. 

Here are my Pennington vs Pena predictions ahead of this exciting title fight.

Pena is the underdog in this fight, but that won’t faze the champion. After all, she won this title before by springing a shock result. At UFC 269, Pena tapped out the seemingly-indestructible Amanda Nunes to take the belt. Nunes holds multiple UFC records and hadn’t lost a fight in seven years. But Pena sprung the 2021 Upset of the Year to take the belt against all odds.

Pena lost the title back in a rematch via a one-sided decision, but the fact remains that ‘The Venezuelan Vixen’ can perform under pressure. She has the career-defining victory to prove it.

A trilogy fight with Nunes had been set for June of last year, but Pena saw her chance at redemption evaporate when she broke her ribs in training. Nunes beat Irene Aldana instead and then retired from the sport. 

The vacant title was contested between Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva. ‘Rocky’ Raquel took home the title on a unanimous decision. It came six years after her first crack at the crown, a 2018 defeat to Nunes. 

Pennington has had a topsy-turvy time in the UFC. She has beaten top names like Miesha Tate, Jessica Andrade and Aldana. But she has also succumbed to the elite likes of Holly Holm, Germaine de Randamie and Nunes. The beauty of this sport though is that the ‘0’ is not obsessed over like it is in boxing. There is always a way back.

It has been an incredible way back for Pennington. She has racked up six consecutive victories, beating the likes of Macy Chiasson and Aspen Ladd before winning the title against Silva. Now she gets a tricky assignment against a woman hungry to return to the top.

The form guide is a little harder to pin down for Pena. While Pennington hasn’t been super-active, she has competed twice since Pena’s loss to Nunes. The Washington-born challenger is coming up to three years since her big win over ‘The Lioness’. It is over two years since she has fought at all. You have to wonder about ring rust in a case like this.

Intriguingly, these two competitors are tied for the fifth-most takedowns landed in their weight division. We could be in for a wrestling match here as the pair jockey for position. Or perhaps the pair will avoid tangling, knowing it plays into the other’s strengths?

What we are unlikely to see is a big knockout either way. Pennington has knocked out just one of her 16 victims, while only one of her eight conquerors has done likewise to her. Pena has one knockout loss from five and three knockouts from 11 wins. You would think the submission numbers, 5-4 in favour of Pena, and takedown acumen will lead to a grappling-based contest.

Raquel Pennington vs Julianna Pena Fight Odds

Pennington is 8/13 to beat Pena here. The challenger is 5/4 to pull off another title upset while the draw is available at 50/1.

UFC 307 Full Card

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña 

José Aldo vs. Mario Bautista 

Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison 

Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland 

Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley 

Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo 

César Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria 

Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux 

Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington 

Court McGee vs. Tim Means

Raquel Pennington vs Julianna Pena Prediction

As I alluded to before, I think this fight will centre around grappling. Either of this women can secure a tap-out at any time, but they are both well-schooled and well-matched in this area.

For that reason I think it will be close and ultimately go the distance. I like Pennington if it goes this way. She has 11 decisions in her 16 victories. She knows what it takes to get the job done over the distance. I’m picking Pennington on points at 11/10.

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