Canelo Alvarez vs Edgar Berlanga Predictions: Easy night for the Mexican ace

The boxing world stops on its axis to watch Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez as he takes on Edgar Berlanga this Saturday, September 14. The WBC, WBA, WBO and The Ring super middleweight championships will be on the line. The T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas will host the bout, which will be screened live on DAZN PPV. 

Here are my Canelo vs Berlanga predictions ahead of this super middleweight showdown.

Every Canelo fight is an event. He may no longer be the pound-for-pound king, but he remains the most bankable attraction in boxing. Oleksandr Usyk, Naoya Inoue and Terence Crawford have all surpassed as fighters. But Canelo remains the sport’s most consistent commercial draw. 

While he remains wildly popular, many boxing aficionados are growing tired of his choice of opposition. Since losing to Dmitry Bivol in an ill-fated WBA light heavyweight title challenge in 2022, Alvarez could be argued to have taken the path of least resistance.

A money-spinning third fight with now-faded rival Gennady Golovkin was perhaps forgivable, due to the rivalry. But wins over John Ryder, Jermell Charlo and Jaime Munguia have not inspired like Canelo’s best fights did.

Ryder was a mandatory but, with five losses on his record when he met Alvarez, failed to convince as a challenger. Charlo is a top fighter, but the fact he moved up from super welterweight to super middleweight in one fell swoop made Canelo’s victory unimpressive. 

Munguia was arguably the best of the three as a fight. An unbeaten fellow Mexican who had reigned as a world champion in the past. But his best days were arguably at lower weights and Canelo handled him with ease. Munguia hit the deck for the first time in his career before losing on the cards.

Fans still turn out to see Canelo no matter his level of competition. Alvarez’s supposedly-unattractive fights post-Bivol have grossed over $218 million. Not bad for a boxer who has allegedly “ducked” tougher challenges.

I always find that term an unseemly accusation to throw at a boxer. Particularly one like Canelo. Can a man who has fought Floyd Mayweather, Miguel Cotto, Sergey Kovalev, Shane Mosley, Callum Smith, Billy Joe Saunders, Caleb Planet, Amir Khan, Erislandy Lara and Golovkin really be accused of ducking anyone?

The use of the phrase in Canelo’s case stems from his failure to face one man: David Benavidez. The unbeaten two-time WBC super middleweight champion has loudly campaigned for a chance at Alvarez’s crown for years. Canelo has always been resistant to the calls, with Benavidez now plying his trade a division up as WBC interim light heavyweight champion.

A fight between the pair seems obvious. Canelo is Mexican while Benavidez wears his Mexican heritage on his sleeve. Benavidez is the only world class super middleweight of the era that Canelo hasn’t defeated. It would be a financial bonanza for both men. But, instead, Canelo will fight Edgar Berlanga. It is a sidestep that hardcore fans are unwilling to forgive the 34-year-old for.

On paper, Berlanga looks like a worthy title challenger. 22-0 with 17 knockouts. He has beaten former world title challengers Steve Rolls, Roamer Alexis Angulo and Jason Quigley. Berlanga’s last fight was a dominant sixth-round TKO over then-unbeaten fellow prospect Padraig McCrory. His CV is more than solid.

But fans look for more than solid when it comes to Canelo. Boxing’s leader is expected to take on superfights. An up-and-comer like Berlanga won’t do. Alvarez, in the eyes of many, should only face decorated world champions. Fighters like Benavidez or even Crawford, who have made themselves undeniable. Berlanga looks decent, but he does not look like joining that category.

‘The Chosen One’ is tall and he can hit. But I don’t see Berlanga applying those attributes on the smaller Canelo like Bivol did. Size alone isn’t enough to beat Canelo. Plant, Kovalev and Munguia are just some of his victims who vastly outsized him. 

Ultimately, this chance looks like it has come a little early for Berlanga. A decent prospect for sure, but his skills are nowhere near the level of Canelo’s top 20 toughest opponents. Fans hoping for anything but an Alvarez cakewalk will be disappointed. You cannot blame Berlanga for taking the lottery win, but for his career development this chance would have been better had it arrived in two years' time.

Canelo vs Berlanga Fight Odds

Canelo is 1/20 to win this one. The Mexican is used to being a favourite, so those odds will come as no surprise to seasoned punters. Berlanga can be backed at 8/1 to do the unthinkable. The draw is priced up at 25/1.

Canelo vs Berlanga Full Card

Saul Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga; WBC, WBA and WBO super middleweight titles Erislandy Lara vs. Danny Garcia; WBA world middleweight title 

Caleb Plant vs. Trevor McCumby; Super middleweight 

Rolando Romero vs. Manuel Jaimes; Super lightweight 

Stephen Fulton vs. Carlos Castro; Featherweight

Canelo vs Berlanga Predictions

I think Canelo will negate the punch power of Berlanga and outbox him here. Alvarez can mix it up with the best of them, but I think he knows his skills are far superior to his challenger. This will lead to a strategic performance from the Mexican icon.

My pick is Canelo to run away with this on points. A decision win for the champion is priced at 13/5.

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