England vs Sri Lanka Prediction: 28/1 and 33/1 shots top 3rd Test Bets

England start the Third Test against Sri Lanka on Friday at The Oval, start time 11:00, 2-0 up and looking to make it a 6-0 clean sweep for the summer. As with all England home matches, the game will be broadcast live on Sky Sports.

Jamie Pacheco picked a 6/1 winner last time out from his two bets which took the Series total to 13.2 points in profit. That could quickly become far bigger if one of his 28/1 and 33/1 Sri Lanka top batsman tips come in here as he takes us through his England vs Sri Lanka Predictions for the third and final Test Match of the summer...

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

Second Test Recap  

We're starting to lose faith in the Pope.  

Ollie Pope batted beautifully in that Second Test against the Windies earlier in the summer but that's starting to feel like a long time ago now. And since taking over the captaincy in Ben Stokes' absence he's let us down twice, and in four innings has scored 6, 6, 1 and 17, in the process finding new and inventive ways to get out.  

It may be a concern for England in the future that the man who is likely to be their senior batsman in three years' time or so may not be able to combine that role with the full-time captaincy if this Series is anything to go by. Then again, it's only two tests so a small sample, but the Ian Bell clone certainly could do with some runs here.  

But then again, who needs 4/1 shot Pope when you can have 6/1 chance Kamindu Mendis? Here's what we said about him before the Second Test:  

"His record of three centuries and two fifties in just seven knocks in Test cricket is exceptional and though an average of 92 will inevitably come down to at least half of that over time, it can't be ignored." 

Well, he didn't make it four Test centuries, but he did make it three fifties, his 74 being 51 more runs than anyone else managed in the first innings for Sri Lanka for a comfortable 6/1 winner. That brings our profit for this Series up to 13.2 points. As they'd say in football, it's a shame England don't play Sri Lanka every week…because when these two are in action we're making good money. So, on we go.    

England 

Dan Lawrence may be well be playing his last-ever Test here after not impressing in the middle-order in the past and having a poor time of it as a makeshift opener in this Series. When Zak Crawley recovers from injury, he'll take his place at the top of the order and they're well-stocked at numbers 3-7, so there's no room for him there.  

I'd still like to see Josh Hull given a game here. England aren't going to learn much about Chris Woakes they don't already know, so why not bring Hull in for him and see what Gus Atkinson can do from number seven? He did after all score a brilliant century from eight last time out.  

Possible Starting Lineup:  Lawrence, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Smith, Woakes/Hull, Atkinson, Potts, Bashir, Stone.  

Sri Lanka  

That these aren't conditions that suit Sri Lanka, we all already know. 

But they need to do the basics right. Like batting when they decided to bowl at Lord's…or picking Vishwa Fernando, who has been bowling in English conditions for Yorkshire for most of the summer. They'd be well-advised to bring him back, which is a bit harsh on Lahiru Kamara but the right thing to do.  

Nishan Madushka had a quiet game as an opener but that's somewhat to be expected given he was also keeping. Not everyone can be Alec Stewart. Maybe Kusal Mendis will be brought back and asked to open with either Mendis or Dinesh Chandimal keeping.  

Possible Starting Lineup: Karunaratne, Madushka/Mendis, Nissanka, Matthews, Chandimal, Dhananjaya, Kamindu Mendis, Rathnayake, A Fernando, V Fernando, Jayasuriya.   

Pitch and conditions  

The last nine matches here at The Oval involving England have resulted in five home wins and four defeats, so the first conclusion is that the draw hasn't been 'a thing' in south London.  

But there was a tenth match played here over the study period: the final of the WTC between India and Australia, which the Aussies won. Curiously, their 469 first innings total, including centuries from Steve Smith and Travis Head, was the exception to the rule in terms of big first-innings scores. England, and whoever they were playing, have often struggled to get past 250 batting first.   

There might be some rain on Friday afternoon or at some stage on Saturday but nothing to be worried about.  

England vs Sri Lanka Odds

England are 3/10 for this one, Sri Lanka 13/2 and the draw 5/1. The latter is the worst of the three prices. So not much to see here.  

England have gone up a gear whenever they've needed to this Series, while Sri Lanka, despite some commendable lower-order bating from two or three different players, haven't been consistent for more than a session throughout the Series.  

Heavy odds-on backers may feel they're buying money here with a bet on the hosts but then again, we know that in sports betting, there's no such thing.  

Let's move on.  

Sri Lanka Top Batsman  

Here's what we know so far about Sri Lanka's batting: the top order has been awful, the middle-order has made some contributions and it's been left to numbers 7-10 to come up with rescue acts.  

We also know that England have been excellent with the new ball with Gus Atkinson and Chris Woakes' swing and bounce causing all sorts of problems.   

And finally, we've seen that there have been some low first-innings totals here at The Oval, meaning that a 40 or so from a lower-middle order batsman could be enough.  

So, step forward Milan Rathnayake (batting at eight) who has so far scored 72, 10, 19 and 43.  That 72 was two short of Dananjaya's 74 in the First Test or else he would have won at a big price. His 144 runs make him the seventh highest scorer in the Series and despite all this, you can get 33/1 on him, which looks a brilliant price.  

A lot of what we said also applies to Prabath Jayasuriya, a 28/1 chance, so it makes sense to split stakes between the two.  

Kamindu Mendis is 6/1 again after our win on him last time and it's a surprise he hasn't been cut slightly. But I'm happy to go for the far bigger prices.    

Sri Lanka Top Bowler  

Asitha Fernado, was a winner for us at 16/5 in the First Test. He also won as top Sri Lanka first innings bowler in the Second Test and tied for most wickets in the second innings of the two Tests. So, he's unbeaten!  

He has 14 wickets so far, which is three more than any bowler on either side, with Atkinson next best on 11.  

So why is he 11/4 joint-favourite alongside Jayasuriya and Vishwa Fernando, who might not even play, rather than the (sole) favourite? I don't know either.  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...