La Vuelta Stage 12 Predictions: Fourth win for Van Aert & 80/1 shot in the mix

If you think the 2024 Vuelta a Espana has been unpredictable to this point, get ready for a string of mountain stages that are set to prolong the crazy nature of this year’s race. Thursday’s Stage 12 is just a precursor (live on Eurosport 1 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 20:00). 

The 137.5km trek from Ourense Termal to the Estacion de Montana de Manzaneda is full of lumps before the sole categorised climb, a Cat 1 mountain-top finish which will decide the day’s winner. Here are my La Vuelta Stage 12 predictions.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

Primoz Roglic has regained favouritism with Betfred for the General Classification of this year’s Vuelta following his 37-second gain on Ben O’Connor on Wednesday. And the Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe leader is also the man most expected to win on Stage 12. He’s the 5/2 favourite for Thursday.

Behind him, Wout van Aert is 9/1 to pick up a fourth win of the event and Enric Mas is priced at 12/1. Then you’ll find Jay Vine at 16/1, Mattias Skjelmose on 18/1 and both Marc Soler and Richard Carapaz – both of whom I fancied for Wednesday – at 20/1.

Cycling Odds

This is a tough stage to call, since it involves over 3,500 elevation metres but no categorised mountain before the dramatic finale at Manzaneda. That means it should be an intense affair from the off, with potential attacks and splits occurring all over the joint.

There are various difficult patches, and the intermediate bonus comes at Sas Penelas after 101.1km over fairly relentless parcours. Then it will be all about having enough in the legs to take on the 15.4km stage-ending assault.

It’s not the steepest of climbs, with a 4.7% average gradient, but it will likely feel pretty never-ending, especially given what the riders will have been through over the previous 122km. Expect to see the peloton break apart pretty early and various groups form on the road to the Cat 1.

After Ben O’Connor lost a fair chunk of time to Primoz Roglic on a relatively minor mountain stage on Wednesday, he will face a tough task to keep his reduced 3:16 lead intact in this one.

Wout van Aert @ 9/1

I’m going for Van Aert just about over Carapaz for my win bet. The Belgian is so versatile, and the final climb is just on the forgiving side of steep that he might well fancy his chances of outlasting anyone who dares to go with him off the front on Thursday.

Roglic’s place at the head of the bookies’ thoughts is understandable, but I’m expecting Friday’s stage to be more up his alley and he doesn’t have to take too many unnecessary risks on this one given his gains on Wednesday.

There’s also the fact that Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale will want to keep him on a close rein for as long as possible as they attempt to protect O’Connor, and there’s that bit more chance of them doing just that on Thursday in my mind.

Carapaz is always a danger in stages like this one, but Van Aert has really ridden himself into form over the last couple of weeks and I think he’ll be targeting this one. And let’s face it, if there’s a bit of a sprint finish to come at the top of the Manzaneda, he’s unlikely to be beaten.

Lorenzo Fortunato E/W @ 80/1

Not an obvious one, this one, but I fancy Fortunato to have a dig as an outside shot.

Astana Qazaqstan haven’t figured much in this Vuelta so far, with a few top-10 finishes for Harold Tejada about the most they’ve had to shout about to this point. But looking at the stage profile, this is the sort of terrain Fortunato has prospered on in the past.

His sole Grand Tour stage win back in the 2021 Giro d’Italia came on a mountain-top finish at Monte Zoncolan, and he was fourth on stage two of this year’s Giro when the second half of the course was similarly unrelenting to what lies ahead here.

The three guys who beat him on that day – Tadej Pogacar, Dani Martinez and Geraint Thomas – are a) not bad, and b) in the case of Pogi and Geraint, not here. Martinez was one of those that got ahead of the peloton for the better part of Wednesday’s stage, but Fortunato hasn’t really gone all out on any of the stages yet.

But that could all change here. I think there’s going to be at least one day when the Vuelta debutant really has a crack, and as long as his legs are feeling up to it, that could well be on Thursday.

At 80/1 and an implied win probability of 1.2% I’m more than willing to crash and burn on this one given the potential returns if the Italian does go big.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.