Bundesliga Winner Odds 24/25: Bayern back stronger to oust Alonso’s Leverkusen

The new Bundesliga campaign gets underway this weekend, starting with reigning champions Bayer Leverkusen's trip to Borussia Monchengladbach on Friday. Xabi Alonso's side are looking to defend their crown but face stern competition from a reinvigorated Bayern Munich, who have a new head coach - Vincent Kompany - and several new stars on their roster.

Below you can find the Bundesliga winner odds 24/25 and an analysis of the top contenders.

Football Odds

FC Bayern Munchen @ 1/2

Bayern Munich's era of dominance finally came to an end earlier this year. After 11 successive Bundesliga titles, Bayern were spectacularly ousted from their throne, finishing third, 18 points behind Leverkusen's 'Invincibles'.

The 2023/24 season was a disastrous one, and it was no surprise in February to see the club and head coach Thomas Tuchel announce that they would part ways at the end of the campaign.

However, the lack of options in the manager market even sparked talk that Tuchel could extend his stay in Bavaria. Eventually, Vincent Kompany was plucked from Burnley in England, despite the Clarets' recent relegation from the Premier League.

Kompany won plenty of titles during his playing days, including four Premier League's as captain of Manchester City, but the only trophy he has lifted as a manager was the EFL Championship with Burnley in 2022/23.

The Belgian has certainly been backed in the summer transfer market, bringing in Michael Olise (Crystal Palace - £45.2m), Joao Palhinha (Fulham - £43.5m) and Hiroki Ito (£20m) for substantial fees, though two other heavily-linked players - Xavi Simons and Desire Doue - have joined RB Leipzig (loan) and Paris Saint-Germain respectively.

Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui, meanwhile, have both been allowed to join Manchester United, with Leon Goretzka potentially the next big-name exit.

It heralds the start of a new era at the Allianz Arena, and while there may be some nervousness surrounding Kompany's inexperience as a head coach in an elite environment, the 38-year-old has a star-studded squad to pick from.

Olise and Palhinha are expected to slot straight into a starting XI that will also feature Manuel Neuer, Jamal Musiala and Harry Kane, among others, supplemented by a raft of exciting youngsters including Aleksandar Pavlovic, Mathys Tel and Nestory Irankunda.

Leverkusen are reigning champions, but this season's title feels like Bayern's to lose.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen @ 11/4

The 2023/24 campaign was a historic one for Leverkusen, who went undefeated across 34 Bundesliga games and secured the double by defeating Kaiserslautern in the DFB Pokal. A treble evaded Die Werkself as Atalanta thrashed Alonso's side 3-0 in the Europa League Final, but even that disappointment could not diminish what the club managed to achieve over the season.

Leverkusen lifted the Bundesliga title with ease, finishing 17 points ahead of runners-up Stuttgart, but they will be well aware that it is unlikely to be as straightforward this year.

However, keeping Alonso in charge was vital. The Spaniard reportedly rejected overtures from Liverpool and Bayern to remain at BayArena, and he added to his trophy haul last weekend with a victory over Stuttgart in the DFL-Super Cup.

Leverkusen have also managed to hold on to all of their stars, notably Florian Wirtz and Jeremie Frimpong, while adding Martin Terrier (Stade Rennais - £17m), Aleix Garcia (Girona - £15.3m) and Jeanuel Belocian (Stade Rennais - £12.8m).

Understandably, Bayern are favorites to reclaim what they believe to be rightfully theirs, but Leverkusen retaining the title is not a fanciful and unrealistic goal for Alonso and his charges.

While Bayern are undergoing something of a makeover with a new manager at the helm, Leverkusen can benefit from the stability of their setup, and at 11/4, look a good price to win back-to-back Bundesliga's.

Borussia Dortmund @ 11/1

Like Bayern, Borussia Dortmund also changed manager over the summer, following suit by appointing someone revered in their playing days but rather inexperienced as a head coach.

Nuri Sahin was adored at Signal Iduna Park for helping Dortmund to the 2010/11 Bundesliga title before sealing a big transfer to Real Madrid, where he struggled with the weight of expectation, ultimately returning to Die Borussen a year later and staying until 2018.

After retiring at Antalyaspor in 2021, Sahin was handed the managerial reigns at the Turkish club and stayed there until December 2023, when he and past teammate Sven Bender were appointed as assistant managers to Edin Terzic at Dortmund. The trio helped the Black and Yellow to the 2024 Champions League Final, which they ultimately lost 2-0 to Real Madrid at Wembley in June.

Terzic subsequently left the club and Sahin was installed as his replacement. The former incumbent did brilliantly in Europe with Dortmund last season, but there is much for Sahin to improve on domestically after they finished fifth, two points behind fourth-placed RB Leipzig, 10 below runners-up Stuttgart and a whopping 27 off champions Leverkusen.

Dortmund came agonisingly close to lifting the Bundesliga title in 2023, drawing 2-2 with Mainz on the final day of the campaign to blow their chances, but the gap to the top last season was huge.

They've made some exciting signings over the summer, recruiting Pascal Gross (Brighton & Hove Albion - £6.8m), Serhou Guirassy (Stuttgart - £15.3m) and Maximillian Beier (TSG Hoffenheim - £24.3m), among others, but have lost the experience of Marco Reus, Niclas Fullkrug and Mats Hummels.

Dortmund should be confident of making strides in the league under Sahin, but a tilt for the title is ambitious.

RB Leipzig @ 14/1

RB Leipzig have been a model of consistency since entering the Bundesliga at the start of the 2016/17 campaign, finishing in the top six in all eight seasons - seven of those in the top four.

However, they last secured runners-up in 2020/21, finishing fourth, third and fourth over the last three campaigns as their top stars continue to get pinched.

Dani Olmo is the latest player to leave the Red Bull Arena, swapping Leipzig for Barcelona this summer, and the Spain international's exit is sure to hit the club hard in the opening weeks in particular.

There's excitement at the capture of 19-year-old Norwegian attacker Antonio Nusa, though, who looks primed to fill the void left by Olmo after his £17.9m move from Club Bruges in Belgium.

Xavi Simons, meanwhile, has rejoined on loan from Paris Saint-Germain after registering 19 goal involvements with Die Roten Bullen in the 2023/24 Bundesliga. His link-up with last season's top scorer Lois Openda, who struck 24 of his 29 goals last term in the league, will be crucial to the club's chances of attaining another top-four finish.

More is also expected of Slovenian striker Benjamin Sesko, who netted 14 times in the Bundesliga last season and ended the campaign with a goal in each of his last seven appearances.

At 14/1, I consider RB Leipzig a better outside shot than Dortmund, with Simons, Openda, Nusa and Sesko forming a fearsome frontline, while only Leverkusen (24 goals) conceded fewer times than Die Roten Bullen (39) in the league last season.

VFB Stuttgart @ 40/1

Worth a mention after finishing as runners-up to Leverkusen in 2023/24, but after losing last season's top scorer Guirassy and influential defender Waldemar Anton to Dortmund, as well as Japan international Ito to Bayern, Stuttgart are likely to find things much tougher this time around.

Die Roten haven't been shy in the transfer market, signing Bosnian centre-forward Ermedin Demirovic (FC Augsburg - £17.9m) and bringing back Germany international Deniz Undav (Brighton & Hove Albion - £22.8m) after he hit 18 Bundesliga goals on loan last season, but it will be difficult enough to match the 73 points they amassed in 2023/24, let alone significantly better it.

Bundesliga Odds

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