La Vuelta Stage 2 Predictions: Van Aert the man to beat in Portugal

After Brandon McNulty’s dramatic time-trial win on Saturday, La Vuelta a Espana reaches stage two on Sunday as the riders take on the hilly 194km route through Portugal from Cascais to Ourem (live on Eurosport 2 from 13:30 BST, highlights on Eurosport 1 at 19:30).

On any normal Grand Tour this might be considered a tough day, but given the fact there are eight high-mountain stages to come around the Iberian Peninsula over the next few weeks, this trip is just a taster of what might be to come. My La Vuelta Stage 2 predictions will have to reflect this.

La Vuelta Betting Odds 

Two names stand out in the betting for stage two, with Alpecin-Deceuninck’s Australian rider Kaden Groves at 5/2 and Belgian star Wout van Aert of Visma-Lease a Bike is the 13/8 favourite to cross the line first in Ourem.

Pavel Bittner of DSM-Firmenich PostNL (12/1) and Israel Premier Tech’s Corbin Strong (16/1) come in next, with Arne Marit and Jhonathan Narvaez both 20/1. If you’re looking for GC contenders, Primoz Roglic is the shortest-priced of those at 33/1.

Cycling Odds

While there are only two category-four climbs on this stage, there’s barely a flat stretch to be spoken of in either the first 90km or the last 70km of the 194km route. As profiles go, it is ‘undulating’ at the very least.

This won’t be a day for the climbing specialists, but neither will there be a real chance for most of the sprinters given the fact that the second of the two Cat 4s – the Alto da Batalha (7.1km at 3.3%) – comes in the final 20km.

It’s a fair old descent too, so there will be no bunching for the fast guys. But that doesn’t rule out Groves, by any stretch of the imagination.

The Aussie was the winner of back-to-back sprint finishes on stages four and five into Tarragona and Burriana at least year’s Vuelta, but he also has a fair bit of credit in the bank on hilly parcours such as this.

Meanwhile, Van Aert is a more classically hilly guy, as it were. The Visma man wasn’t at his best at the Tour de France and hasn’t recorded a win in six months, but this could well be the kind of day that suits him.

This route has an element of a one-day classic about it, and that is where Wout can be at his best.

Wout van Aert @ 13/8

Van Aert is too classy a customer to go on missing out, and I think this could be his time to get back on the bike. Sorry.

He missed out by less than three seconds in Saturday’s TT to finish third, where he also came in at the Olympics in the same discipline. But his all-round qualities ensure he has plenty of strings to his bow.

There are just enough hills to give him an edge on the sprinters – even Groves – and not quite enough steep climbs to attract the GC guys and King of the Mountains candidates. And that plays into Van Aert’s hands.

That’s why I have to go for the Visma-Lease a Bike star to take the stage and the red jersey too by the end of the day. 

Jhonathan Narvaez E/W @ 20/1

After their hopes were dashed on Saturday thanks to Josh Tarling’s sluggish TT effort, Ineos Grenadiers might have some hope in stage two thanks to Narvaez.

While the team’s hopes over the next three weeks will largely depend on the fortunes of Carlos Rodriguez, Narvaez falls into a similar category to Van Aert in that the two Cat 4s on offer hold no fears.

The Ecuadorian won the grande partenza at the Giro d’Italia earlier this year on another hilly stage, even if it didn’t offer quite the depth of undulation, and I can see him challenging once more on this profile.

The 20/1 odds are appealing too, at an implied probability of 4.8%.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.