La Vuelta Stage 1 Predictions: Tarling the huge favourite to take red

The final Grand Tour of 2024 begins on Saturday as La Vuelta a Espana visits Portugal for its big opener, an individual time-trial covering just 12km between Lisbon and Oeiras (live on Eurosport 1 from 16:00 BST, highlights at 22:30).

Ahead of a three-week race which will scale almost impregnable mountains, the TT ought to make La Vuelta Stage 1 predictions a little more straightforward given the climber-heavy field.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

Last year’s Vuelta got underway with a saturated team time-trial around Barcelona in the pitch black, so the scorching hot temperatures alongside the beautiful River Tagus will provide quite the contrast as the 2024 contest begins.

Given the fact this is such a short TT, reminiscent of Tour de France prologues, there should be very narrow time gaps between the riders and therefore even the slightest hiccup could be crucial.

There are two clear favourites among the field, with many of the classic time trailers and sprinters having been either put off by the mountain-focused profile of this year’s race or taking the decision to rest after a more favourable Tour de Frane and a busy Olympic period.

Wout van Aert is expected to challenge Josh Tarling for the honours on day one, with the Belgian having claimed an Olympic time-trial bronze medal behind compatriot Remco Evenepoel and Italian Filippo Ganna.

Van Aert is likely to target the World Championships in Zurich in September, with the Vuelta a key moment in his preparation. But he will have to go some to beat Tarling on the opening day.

Brandon McNulty, Jay Vine and Stefan Kung are all 16/1 and would expect to be among those pushing Tarling and Van Aert all the way. Meanwhile, race favourite Primoz Roglic is 33/1 and will be hoping to gain some early seconds on reigning champion Sepp Kuss in the psychological battle.

Beyond these guys, it will be on Kuss and the main climbers to just get their legs ticking over before the real stuff begins on Sunday.

Cycling Odds

Josh Tarling @ 2/5

Tarling finished just two seconds behind Van Aert in the TT at the Games in Paris, leaving him just shy of a medal, having suffered a cruel puncture when well placed to challenge for gold.

And this 12km distance seems set to offer the Welshman a better chance of success, with so much less room for bad luck to blight riders over the shorter course compared with that 32.4km trip around the French capital.

The Ineos Grenadiers star is competing in his first ever Grand Tour, and this stage is very much the focus. The hope would be that he gets through to the final TT on stage 21 around the streets of Madrid to double his hopes of a stage win, but there are no massive mountainous trips standing in his way on Saturday.

While Van Aert’s odds of 3/1 are far more welcoming, I can’t in all conscience back anyone other than Tarling to take the red jersey into Sunday’s stage two. The 2/5 odds are on the prohibitive side, but given how big a favourite Josh is it might well prove to be worth this risk.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.