Kamala Harris Next US President Odds: Democrats get boost as Joe Biden withdraws

Could Kamala Harris be the next US president? With the US election set for November 5, the race for the White House in 2024 has already seen more twists and turns than ever before. We are still over three months out from the election itself, but we’ve already seen a failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump, while Joe Biden has dropped out of the race to return for a second term.

He has been replaced by vice-president Harris, but has that made a difference to the Next US president odds? We’ve taken a look as Harris looks to become Trump’s Kryptonite.

The focus from the Trump campaign has been fairly consistent throughout this election. Having won the Republican nomination, he was always the clear favourite to be re-elected, as he came up against 81-year-old Joe Biden, a man three years his senior. 

Biden’s blunders during the campaign clearly weren’t helping him, and Trump’s constant digs at a man he called “the worst president in history”, were landing with voters. Biden was clearly not at his best, as he accidentally called Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin, in his biggest blunder to date. As the current US president often appeared confused in debates, it really felt like this was all only going to end one way. 

Then, the assassination attempt on Trump took place in Pennsylvania. It was an act of violence that shook the world, but Trump survived. That bloodied image of his raised fist might just be the defining image of the campaign, and the former president received a boost in the polls having survived that shooting. 

He used it as political fuel, and his fanbase have rallied behind their man. This is a president who still claims the 2020 election was stolen from him, and his followers hang on his every word. They stormed the Capitol building following Biden’s election win, and there’s a real ferocity to their support for Trump. 

US Presidential Election Winner Odds

It became quite clear to the Biden camp that they would lose this election unless a change was made at the top. Looking at the polls, he was losing the key swing states he won in 2020 and there simply was no path to the White House given Trump has led the poll average since June 2023 between the two candidates. 

But have things changed now that the vice-president is at the top of the ticket? Harris was 9/4 on Betfred to be the next US president after Biden’s announcement, however, in the subsequent days those odds have narrowed, and they now sit at 13/8. She is a more favourable candidate than Biden, with a 38% favourability rating amongst voters compared to 36%, but that number isn’t all that strong. Trump lies on 41% in that particular category, for reference.

However there is still time for her to make her mark, and she is certainly a better prospect than the president was for voters. She is resonating more with younger voters, will do well in debates and there has been a slight increase in voter sign-ups since she entered the race.

The swing-state polls will be interesting and Trump is likely to be ahead at this point, but there is still a lot to consider. She must choose her running mate, and the person who will be her vice-president if the Democrats win this election. Andy Beshear or Josh Shapiro are serious contenders, with Beshear potentially the one to go for given his current position as the Democratic governor of Kentucky. 

Interestingly, the running mates could play a major part in this election. If Beshear gets the nod he is the complete opposite of J.D Vance, Trump’s sidekick. He is an eminently dislikable guy, with recent polling suggesting he is the least-liked candidate to be vice-president since 1980. His recent attack calling Harris a “childless cat lady” didn’t go down well, and there are even some reports that the Trump camp is doubting his appointment as running mate. 

There’s no doubt that Trump is still ahead, for now. But his assassination survival already feels like a lifetime ago, and the news has moved on. There’s certainly been a shift from negativity with Biden, to positivity with Harris, and the right running mate could give her the extra boost she needs, especially if Vance continues to make blunder after blunder. 

The Republicans have spent this whole campaign questioning the mental capacity and ability of an old man. Now their candidate is the old man in this race and Trump may be aware of the momentum change. For now, the man who won the 2016 presidential election is still the favourite, but it is worth keeping an eye on the polls to see if Harris can turn this new-found momentum into votes. 

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