Edwards vs Muhammad Predictions: The UFC 304 main event hits Manchester

The Octagon comes to Manchester this Saturday, July 27 as UFC 304 arrives at the Co-Op Live Arena. The main event sees UFC Welterweight champion Leon Edwards defend his title against the in-form Belal Muhammad. TNT Sports 1 will broadcast all the action live.

Here are my Edwards vs Muhammad predictions as ‘Rocky’ prepares for a homecoming.

Edwards and Muhammad have met before. The pair tied up at UFC Fight Night 187, headlining the Las Vegas card. The bout was a replacement for Edwards vs Khamzat Chimaev. Intriguingly, the latter remains unbeaten and now competes at middleweight, meaning we may never know how the proposed fight could have gone.

We do have a glimpse at how Edwards and Muhammad match up, however. The pair shared one full round plus 18 seconds of the following session. An accidental eye poke from Edwards to Muhammad curtailed the outing and resulted in a No Contest. 

That one round of action was instructive when assessing the rematch. Edwards dominated a round where the action remained standing throughout. While Muhammad expertly stuffed three takedown attempts, he was hurt and cut by a brutal head kick. 

Edwards was relaxed striking from range. Whenever Muhammad advanced, he would catch jabs and the occasional bracing left from the southpaw stance of ‘Rocky’. Belal’s own striking had little effect on Edwards, while the Brit landed some quality shots.

There is no telling exactly where the fight would have gone had the eye-poke not ended round two shortly after it had begun. Muhammad was wrestling well and if the fight had gone to the mat, perhaps he could have turned the tide. But Edwards fought with an uncommon comfort and looked to have matters well in hand.

Of course, a lot of water has passed under the bridge in three years. Edwards outpointed Nate Diaz in his next fight before shocking the world, knocking Kamaru Usman out to spectacularly win the UFC Welterweight Championship.

The Birmingham boy followed that up with a decision over Usman in the rematch before retaining his title last December against Colby Covington. Edwards now sits fourth on the UFC pound-for-pound rankings.

Muhammad’s journey since the first Edwards bout has been a little more low-key, but still impressive. ‘Remember The Name’ has gone 5-0 post-’Rocky’, with one knockout and four decisions. The Chicago star is often criticised by fans for favouring the long way round, with observers wishing he would be a little more ruthless in his approach.

But you cannot argue with the results. Muhammad’s style has seen him go unbeaten in his last 10 fights. It has also earned the 36-year-old a shot at the title in the headline bout on a huge pay-per-view event. Muhammad is not for everyone, but there is no denying his success.

Edwards vs Muhammad Fight Odds

Edwards is the 4/9 favourite to score a victory on home soil. Muhammad is priced at 15/8 to win but, knowing how he fights, punters fancying him can find extra value in a Belal decision at 10/3. A draw is 50/1.

UFC 304 Full Card

Main card 

Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes 

Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett 

Christopher Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues 

Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze 

Prelims

Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda 

Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil 

Jake Hadley vs. Caolan Loughran 

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio 

Early Prelims 

Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons 

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape 

Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie 

Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski 

Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean

Edwards vs Muhammad Prediction

After watching ‘Rocky’ rock Belal in the first fight, I can’t see past the knockout here. Muhammad is good at spoiling and shutting an opponent down. We saw his defensive wrestling put to good use in their first meeting.

But Edwards had Muhammad reeling in those five minutes they shared in the cage. I think he can do it again. The champion is coming into this knowing the way to damage his opponent. He has done it already. I think he can do it again, decisively this time, for a 5/2 knockout win.

You can find all our latest UFC betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights UFC page