Tour de France Stage 14 Predictions: 25/1 Evenepoel an each-way hope

After a couple of flat stages in the 2024 Tour de France – in profile if not in drama – comes a GC day on Saturday’s stage 14. And boy, is it a GC day! (Live from 11:30 BST on Eurosport 1, 12:00 BST on ITV4).

The ever-captivating trip over the Col du Tourmalet is just one feature of a 153.6km course through the Pyrenees between Pau and Saint-Lary-Soulan’s Pla d’Adet which could provide one of the key moments in this year’s battle for the yellow jersey between Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard. Here are my Tour de France Stage 14 predictions.

Tour de France Betting Odds

Just as Betfred can’t separate Pogacar and Vingegaard for the overall crown (they are both 10/11 to win the General Classification) the pair of them are locked in as 7/2 joint favourites for Saturday’s finish at Pla d’Adet.

Beyond them, Jayco AlUla’s Simon Yates is 8/1, with Richard Carapaz of EF Education-EasyPost at 10/1. Then you’re hitting the long shots, starting with Tom Pidcock at 20/1, Romain Bardet is 22/1, and the quartet of Santiago Buitrago, Ben Healy, Wout Poels and Remco Evenepoel – who remains second in GC for now – are all 25/1.

Cycling Odds

If you’re only going to sit and watch one full day of this year’s Tour, this might be the time to do it.

After Wednesday’s Stage 11 drama, in which Pogacar launched an attack over the Puy Mary to form a 30-second gap on Vingegard only for the Dane to fight back on the Col du Pertus and then inflict a first-ever two-up sprint defeat on the Slovenian, there is set to be even more intrigue in the first Pyrenean stage of the year.

The positioning of the Tourmalet on the route is what helps to make this one fascinating, with the climb beginning around 100km from the end of the stage. With two further mountains – the Cat-2 Hourquette d’Ancizan and the HC Pla d’Adet at whose peak the stage ens – this will be one of the days on which we can expect attacks and counter-attacks left, right and centre.

Typically, Pogacar might want to go out alone ahead of Vingegaard close to the top of a slope like the Tourmalet – a 19km climb at an average 7.4% gradient – but with the knowledge that there are still 60-plus kilometres to cover beyond the summit, and a further 1000 or so metres of ascending to be done, the race leader might have to temper his instincts and instead wait for the last climb to make his burst.

But that is where Visma-Lease a Bike might see an opportunity to themselves drop Pogacar and give Vingegaard the chance to claim yellow for the first time this year. Certainly, his emotional victory on Wednesday showed that he has recovered adequately from his horror crash in the Basque Country in April to have a serious chance of three straight Tour titles.

Tadej Pogacar @ 7/2

In all honesty, I’ve underestimated Vingegaard before. I didn’t think he had it in him to deliver quite as he did in the individual time trial between Passy and Combloux last year in what effectively was his Tour-winning statement performance.

And even as recently as Wednesday he left me lost for words with his gutsy fightback from 30 seconds down to pip Pogacar in an epic day of racing.

But I still have to go with Pogacar here. For all Vingegaard’s brilliance, he surely can’t shrug off life-threatening injuries and within four months beat a cycling genius to win the Tour de France can he?

While Pogi will see the withdrawal of Juan Ayuso on Friday as a potential blow as he loses a key team member, there are still enough pillars of support within UAE Team Emirates in the likes of Adam Yates and Joao Almeida to put the man in yellow into position.

He needs to put a marker down after the disappointment of stage 11, too. And he is just the type of character to dig deep for the reserves he will need on a day like this.

Remco Evenepoel E/W @ 25/1

I know there has been basically no mention of anyone but Pogacar and Vingegaard until now, but it is worth remembering what Evenepoel is capable of on mountain stages.

His two breakaway successes in last year’s Vuelta a Espana were partly exercises in validation after his GC hopes had gone up in smoke, but they were also very instructive in what he can be capable of still.

He had won the Vuelta 12 months earlier, is a former world champion and is a hugely accomplished climber even if you wouldn’t call it his specialism. So far he has shown an ability to stay with Pogacar when the Slovenian has really gone for it on the climbs, but he has kept the gap between them down to 1:06 partly thanks to his belligerence.

Even if Pogacar and Vingegaard get away, I can see Evenepoel come in not too far behind - just as he did on Wednesday. And if he is having one of his bolder days, he might even do what he can to turn the two-man race into a three-headed monster. His 25/1 implies a 3.8% win probability, but he's definitely in with a claim of third at least.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.