Palmeiras vs San Lorenzo Prediction: Visitors likely to struggle on travels again

Boasting a six-point lead over San Lorenzo, their next and final opponents in Copa Libertadores Group F on Thursday (KO, 23:00), Palmeiras can play without pressure at Allianz Parque in Sao Paulo, knowing top spot and a place in the knockouts is secure.

Their visitors don't have such a luxury and must avoid defeat tomorrow to make sure of joining the Verdao in the next stage of the competition. Read below for my Palmeiras vs San Lorenzo prediction, where you can also find all the latest team news and match odds.

Palmeiras are looking to complete an unbeaten group stage after following up a 1-1 draw against San Lorenzo in their opening game with four consecutive wins, beating both Liverpool Montevideo (3-1, 0-5) and Independiente del Valle (2-1, 2-3) home and away.

San Lorenzo, meanwhile, earned just a single point from their first three games, losing away to both Independiente del Valle (2-0) and Liverpool (1-0), but they turned things around against the Ecuadorians and Urguayans at home, beating them 2-0 and 3-2 respectively.

Independiente del Valle and Liverpool meet in Quito on Thursday with both level on four points, and one of them has to win and hope San Lorenzo lose in Sao Paulo to stand a chance of progressing to the knockouts.

It was nearly two months ago when San Lorenzo hosted Palmeiras in Buenos Aires, and it was the Argentinians who opened the scoring in the 20th minute through defender Jhohan Romana. They looked like holding on for a statement victory, but substitute Joaquin Piquerez had other ideas as he popped up in the 81st minute to take a point back to Brazil.

Team News

Bruno Rodriguez has been sidelined since January 25 with a knee injury and the Palmeiras forward looks set to miss out again on Thursday.

Teenage forwards Endrick and Estevao, bound for Real Madrid and Chelsea respectively, could line up together in an exciting forward line.

San Lorenzo will likely be without the services of Facundo Altamirano due to a hamstring strain, but Romana is free to return after serving a suspension last time out in the Libertadores.

Palmeiras vs San Lorenzo Odds

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The hosts are 8/15 to triumph on Thursday, giving them an implied win probability of 65.2%, while the visitors are 5/1, or a 16.7% chance, to pick up all three points.

The draw is available at 5/2, both teams to score at 6/5, and over 3.5 goals at 3/1.

Palmeiras to win & over 1.5 total goals @ 21/20

Palmeiras can afford to drop points on Thursday, while San Lorenzo need a point to confirm their place in the knockout stage of the Libertadores.

However, despite the extra motivation on part of the visitors, I question their ability to achieve a positive result in Sao Paulo.

San Lorenzo have won their last two games in the competition, but they both came in Buenos Aires against the two weakest sides in the group.

Away from home, they have failed to pick up a point or score a goal, losing 2-0 and 1-0 against Independiente del Valle and Liverpool respectively.

Palmeiras have won both group games at home, scoring five and conceding twice, and will pose a tough test despite not needing any points from the contest.

I've added over 1.5 total goals to boost the odds to over evens - Palmeiras' last four wins at home, including their two Libertadores group matches there, have seen at least two goals scored.

Alexis Cuello anytime goalscorer @ 17/2

San Lorenzo are up against it on Thursday, but I like the above selection as a 'long shot'. Alexis Cuello wasn't in the squad for El Ciclon's first two group games, and was only a thrown on in the 90th minute of their 1-0 loss to Liverpool on April 24.

However, he was given a start in his side's next Libertadores match against Independiente del Valle on May 9, and duly rewarded his manager with the opening goal in a 2-0 win.

The 24-year-old forward followed that up with another strike in the competition against Liverpool eight days later, and he will be looking to net in a third consecutive Libertadores game on Thursday.

Those two goals did arrive at home, where San Lorenzo are a different animal, but at 17/2, I think Cuello is worth a punt.

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