Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: The Nix continue to defy doubters

A sellout crowd is expected at Sky Stadium on Saturday (07:30, TNT Sports 2) for the Australian A-League Men's second-leg match between hosts Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory, who played out a goalless draw at AAMI Park in Melbourne last Sunday.

Below you can find my Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory prediction, and read up on all the latest team news and match odds heading into this crunch clash in New Zealand.

Last week's first leg was a fairly low-key affair as Wellington Phoenix did what they do best - grind out a result away from home. It may not be pretty, but their methods are certainly effective, and who can blame Giancarlo Italiano, given the hand dealt to him compared to other clubs in the division with far greater resources.

The Nix managed just six shots in Melbourne, failing to find the target with any, while Victory had 20 attempts, with five hitting the target but not getting past Alex Paulsen in net.

That result means the two sides have drawn three times already this season, with Wellington's 1-0 win at Sky Stadium on April 12 proving to be the outlier.

Team News

In the first leg, Italiano named the same XI that started the Phoenix’s final-round win over Macarthur FC, with Oskar van Hattum, Oskar Zawada, Youstin Salas and Mohamed Al-Taay all appearing as second-half substitutes.

The Wellington boss is likely to go with the same side that has served him so well recently, although last season's top scorer Zawada will be itching to make a first start of the calendar year after a long spell on the sidelines.

Zinedine Macach remains suspended for Victory following the red card he received in their Elimination Final win against Melbourne City.

Tony Popovic made four changes to his starting XI from that game for last week's first leg, with Jordi Valadon, Nishan Velupillay, Roly Bonevacia and Salim Khelifi all coming into the side at the expense of Jake Brimmer, Ben Folami, Daniel Arzani and Machach.

Stefan Nigro has been added to the extended squad this time round.

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

The hosts are priced up at 13/8 to triumph inside 90 minutes on Saturday, giving them an implied win probability of 38.1%, while the visitors are 7/5, or a 41.7% chance, to do the business inside regulation.

A draw would send the tie to extra time and can be backed at 11/5.

Both teams to score is available at 8/13, while another goalless draw is available at 10/1.

Wellington Phoenix to win & under 2.5 goals @ 5/1

Once again, I find myself rather perplexed at just how underrated this Wellington side seems to be. Victory are favourites according to the odds market, yet have failed to beat the Nix in four matches so far this season, scoring just twice.

They also had a pretty unremarkable record away from home in the regular A-League Men's season, winning just four of their 14 games, and just two since the turn of the year.

Italiano's side, meanwhile, accrued the most points at home (32), despite playing a game fewer than the next-best, Central Coast Mariners (29). They triumphed 10 times at Sky Stadium, dropping just seven points, and are on a run of six straight wins in Wellington, keeping a clean sheet in their last three.

Sure, Victory have more star names in their ranks, including Australia international Bruno Fornaroli, whose 18 goals in the A-League Men's were beaten only by Perth Glory's Adam Taggart (20), but the collective is what makes the Nix so powerful.

The continued absence of Victory playmaker Machach is also important to note, as much of their play went through the Frenchman during the regular season.

This game could well go into extra time, but I'm backing the home side to do the business inside the 90. Their terrific defensive record - they have been breached just 10 times at Sky Stadium this term - also gives me belief that they can shut out the Victory attack for a third time this season.

I don't expect them to score many themselves, though - their tally of 23 goals at home was bettered by six sides - so backing under 2.5 goals looks the smart play here.

I wrote ahead of the Nix's final day win over Macarthur FC that I had picked a winner incorporating the match result in my last five previews on them, and they followed that up by landing a 7/4 selection.

Last week also proved successful as the 13/5 tip on a draw came to fruition - can the Nix land an eighth straight win for us?

Correct score - Wellington Phoenix 1-0 @ 17/2

My first selection involves Wellington Phoenix winning to nil, and scoring no more than two goals, so it makes sense to try and nail a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline.

I've opted for the former here for a few reasons. Firstly, it's a semi-final second leg - the stakes are high, and that means we could see a cautious approach from both sides. Not that a head-to-head between the pair needed it anyway, considering there have been just five goals scored between them in four meetings so far this season.

Wellington are also good for a 1-0 victory - they've won by that exact scoreline on four separate occasions this term, three of which have come at Sky Stadium.

Victory, meanwhile, lost five games in the regular season - three of them by a goal to nil, including that defeat in Wellington last month.

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.