Fluminense vs Cerro Porteno Prediction: Cerro can halt Flu’s march

Reigning champions Fluminense can book their place in the knockout stages of the 2024 Copa Libertadores with a win over closest Group A rivals Cerro Porteno at the Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro on Thursday evening (23:00).

These teams drew 0-0 in Asuncion and in a group full of close calls it would be no surprise if there isn’t much between them again in Rio. Below you can find my Fluminense vs Cerro Porteno predictions, as well as all the latest team news and match odds heading into this round-five clash.

Team News

Key midfielders Andre and Douglas Costa are two of several major absentees for Fluminense through injury, while veteran defender Felipe Melo is a massive miss due to suspension.

Also on the sidelines for the Brazilian powerhouses are defenders Samuel Xavier and Marlon, midfielder Renato Augusto and striker Lele.

Cerro seemed to come unscathed through Sunday’s Clasico against Olimpia, a 1-1 draw which left Manolo Jimenez’s men second in the league table. Defenders Bruno Valdez and Lucas Quintana are long-term absentees.

Fluminense vs Cerro Porteno Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Fluminense vs Cerro Porteno page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Fluminense are 4/9 to beat Cerro Porteno, who are available at 6/1. The draw is an 11/4 chance.

It was 0-0 when they met in Asuncion and no goalscorer is 17/2. Seven of the eight fixtures in Group A have produced under 2.5 goals which is an 8/11 chance.

Draw @ 11/4

Reigning champions Fluminense are top of the pile in Group A, unbeaten after four rounds and heading into the last 16 - yet there is very little to admire about Fernando Diniz’s side at the moment.

Flu need one win from their final two home games - they sign off at home to Alianza Lima - but they shouldn’t be trusted at skinny odds to get one of them against tough Paraguayan outfit Cerro.

The Brazilians are ravaged by injuries, not scoring goals and not creating, either. They were fortunate to draw 0-0 in Asuncion in the reverse fixture and last week’s 1-0 win at Chile’s Colo-Colo was almost a travesty.

Diniz has got this group - who are struggling terribly in Serie A though naturally distracted by Copa commitments - looking well organised without the ball, but there’s precious little flair when they have it. Cerro’s four games have produced four goals with just two conceded and on five points after four rounds, they would gladly take a point at the Maracana.

They won’t be taking risks and nor should punters by backing the Brazilians at a seriously short price.

Under 9.5 corners @ 4/5

When these sides met in the Paraguayan capital three weeks ago, the match produced no goals and just four corners.

In Flu’s subsequent Copa Libertadores encounter, the 1-0 win at Colo-Colo, they won only two corners in a game producing six in total. Cerro, meanwhile, mustered just three at Alianza Lima last time out.

This is a tight group which is destined to stay that way, with defences on top and few risks being taken. Under 9.5 corners looks an obvious call.

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.