Bath vs Harlequins Prediction: Bath’s ballast can see them past Quins

Saturday's match at The Rec could be billed as a battle of the fly-halves, as Finn Russell's Bath host Harlequins' Marcus Smith but it could well be the home side's improving forwards that decide the outcome.

Johann van Graan's team have made headlines with their flowing rugby and while Russell has indeed been excellent, Bath's success has been built on their ball-carrying forwards and outside centre Ollie Lawrence getting over the gain-line and giving their star playmaker a platform.

Those talents helped them beat both Ulster and Cardiff during the Premiership's hiatus for the Champions Cup. However, it was a frustratingly familiar story for Quins, who made the most of a slick surface to win away at Racing 92, only to be outclassed at home by Toulouse.

For all Smith and his team's brilliance with ball-in-hand, they have yet to find consistency up front, which could cost them again on Saturday.

Team News

Bath have made five changes from their win over Cardiff, with hooker Niall Annett and prop Thomas du Toit both coming into the front row.

Elsewhere in the pack, GJ van Velze gets the nod at blindside flanker, while behind the scrum, Max Ojomoh starts alongside Lawrence in the centres. Matt Gallagher's aerial ability also means he starts at full-back, with Tom de Glanville dropping out of the matchday squad.

For Quins, hooker Jack Walker will make his 50th appearance for the club.

Stephan Lewies comes in to partner Joe Launchbury in the second row and James Chisholm switches to openside flanker to accommodate Chandler Cunningham-South's selection in the number six jersey.

In the backs, Danny Care is in at scrum-half, while Louis Lynagh returns to the side on the left wing.

Match Odds

Bath’s recent form contributes to them being 2/5 in the match betting, while Quins are priced at 2/1 and the tie at 22/1.

The hosts have averaged 39 points per game in their last three matches so the points markets could be worth monitoring, while they are 8/5 to win by 12 or more, as has been the case in their last two home games.

Bath -7 Handicap @ 20/21

Van Graan said after taking over in 2022 that it might take time to fix things at Bath but the South African has made solid progress, and his team has averaged 39 points a game since losing to 11-9 at Sale last month.

The additions of Du Toit and Alfie Barbeary have added the go-forward that their team's pack has lacked in recent years, while Lawrence's off-loading game is also allowing both himself and those around him to thrive.

Quins remain an enigma. They monstered Sale 36-3 at home earlier this month, producing a similar performance to their 29-25 win at Leicester. However, they were on the other end of a similar performance in their 38-10 defeat to Saracens and also lacked the requisite power to land a knockout blow in their 36-33 defeat at Northampton.

Their mixed European returns have only prompted more questions and Bath's additional grunt might again demonstrate that Quins are still searching for the substance to match their style.

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