Saturday BTTS Tips: A big-priced 24/1 sevenfold from the UK Longlist

Oh Manchester United. You couldn't score just one goal at home against Bournemouth? That wouldn't have been so hard now would it? Well apparently so and as you may have guessed, it was the Red Devils who let us down a week ago. Former United star Michael Carrick's team did us no favours either. The other eight clubs all did us a solid.

This week we go big with a 24/1 sevenfold including two top-of-the-table clashes from deep in the non-leagues...

Leg 1 - Ipswich Town vs Norwich City @ 8/13

We open our BTTS sevenfold with the early kick-off, which is already a dangerous play as we could be done before the majority of our selections have even started. Yet for this East Anglian Derby, I’m willing to overlook that as I firmly believe the stats plus the gut-feel firmly put this game in play.

The Tractor Boys have been a home BTTS juggernaut all season-long. They score plenty but seem allergic to keeping clean sheets at Portman Road as this bet has been a winner in their past six games at home. So you have to feel good about the hosts but when you throw in the fact that Norwich have been involved in BTTS games for eight-straight road matches, we are starting to cook with gas.

Both sides of the coin feel good on this front and that is why we are taking on the early kick.

Leg 2 - Swansea City vs Middlesbrough @ 4/7

We stick in the EFL Championship for the second game of the column where the home side have been involved in BTTS encounters for six matches on the spin. That is the type of run that makes my ears prick up.

Middlesbrough are one of the weaker sides in the division for this bet coming in but away from home, they are often involved in high-scoring games, having seen the Over 2.5 hit in their past six on their travels.

Swansea are 71% for BTTS for the season and coupled with the fact that Middlesbrough games often produce plenty of goals, it makes me feel that this is a strong play.

Leg 3 - Lincoln City vs Reading @ 4/5

From seemingly nowhere, Reading have become one of the hottest sides for BTTS in England with the Berkshire-based club having seen this bet be a winner in 12 straight matches in all competitions. This has seen their season-long record move up to 65% and the third-best in the division.

That alone is more than enough for me to play them and I’ll probably continue to do so until this run is finally snapped.

There is a reason that despite this sensational run, this game is actually the highest-priced leg of this sevenfold and that is Lincoln are the polar opposite. In their past six, only a 2-2 home draw against Barnsley would have been a winner for this bet as the Imps tend not to score or concede many.

Yet, the record of Reading in recent weeks has been just that good that I’m willing to roll with them one more time.

Leg 4 - Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town @ 4/7

Another stat that jumped out to me whilst doing my research this bleak and dreary Thursday was that Mansfield Town have been involved in BTTS games in their past six away from home.

Nigel Clough’s side are sitting pretty in fourth-place in EFL League 2 and make the trip down to Crawley this weekend looking to return to the automatic promotion places.

The last time fans at the Broadfield Stadium weren’t treated to the sight of both sets of supporters celebrating a goal at least once, was back in early October when Wrexham went down to Sussex and came away with a 0-1 win. Since then it has been five-straight where BTTS has been a winner at the ground.

Put those two things together and what do you get? The fourth leg of our Saturday BTTS column.

Leg 5 - Hartlepool United vs Chesterfield @ 8/13

Up at Victoria Park we have a battle of the top two teams for BTTS in the National League. Hartlepool United (77%) welcome in Chesterfield (76%) with both sides very much being a staple of this column so far throughout the season.

John Askey’s men have been involved in eight-straight matches where a bet on both teams finding the back of the net would have been a winner. They are rarely involved in 1-1’s either as often the games are just chock full of goals.

The visitors come into this one having seen their defence starting to loosen up after a rather annoying month of October whereupon they managed to win all four games without conceding. That wasn’t very good for us!

Since then, York City are the only National League side who have failed to score against Paul Cook’s men. 77% vs 76% is always going to be a play statistically.

Leg 6 - Chatham Town vs Hornchurch FC @ 4/9

Leg 7 - Radcliffe Football Club v Warrington Rylands 1906 F.C. @ 1/2

I’ve lumped the final two games together as they are both top-of-the-table clashes. One from the Isthmian Premier and the other from the Northern Premier.

Hornchurch and Chatham have scored 87 league goals between them in 37 matches. That equates to over two-a-game and that doesn’t even include the ones they’ve conceded. If we add them in, the total goals scored in their league games is 127.

It is a similar equation in the other matchup as they’ve scored 85 between them in the same amount of games. Like above, when I add in the ones they’ve conceded, it comes to 126. So both clubs are playing in games where on average, a hair below four-goals-a-game are scored.

Basically what I’m saying is when you have two free-flowing sides, the Over 2.5 and/or BTTS is always in play and I'm rolling with the latter rather than the former this week.

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