Prograis vs Haney Prediction: A draw could be the pick in this tactical chess match

The year might be edging towards its end, but boxing is showing no signs of slowing down. 90% of the world’s significant heavyweight fighters will descend upon Saudi Arabia in a couple of weeks. Britain’s own Sunny Edwards will attempt to unify the IBF and WBO flyweight titles against Jesse ‘Bam’ Rodriguez the week before. But first up could be the most intriguing bout of all, as unbeaten former undisputed lightweight king Devin Haney moves up to super lightweight to take on WBC champion Regis Prograis.

Prograis is perhaps best known to British fans for his 2019 majority decision defeat to Josh Taylor in the final of the World Boxing Super Series. Prograis won a unanimous decision over Manchester’s Terry Flanagan in the quarter-finals, meaning he has been on domestic radars for a while.

Those who watched those bouts might not be overly familiar with his work since. Prograis is 5-0 since the Taylor defeat with four knockouts. One of those arrived against Belfast’s Tyrone McKenna, in a six-round TKO victory. The most impressive was an 11th round stoppage of Jose Zepeda to win the WBC super lightweight title. Prograis defended the belt with some difficulty in a split decision over Danielito Zorrilla in June. 

It is that sort of difficulty that Haney will hope to bring back to the surface on Saturday. But the departing lightweight king had some problems of his own last time out. Facing the great Vasiliy Lomachenko was never going to be easy and Haney found it heavy going indeed. Many thought ‘The Dream’ was fortunate to escape with his titles and a unanimous decision in his favour.

How do you split two world champions coming into the fight off the back of disappointing performances? Looking at the levels, there’s certainly more to be said for finding it difficult against Lomachenko than Zorrilla. No disrespect to the latter, but the former is one of the greatest fighters of the modern era. The success Haney had in the bout showed he could perform against the very, very best. 

But styles make fights and Prograis has some advantages in this bout. He is a natural 140-pounder while Haney is debuting at the new weight. Prograis is a superb defensive boxer, with his impeccable head movement making him as elusive as they come. Haney is a fighter that likes to box in bursts, getting in and out while avoiding damage. Something has to give in what will be a chess match of a bout. 

Considering Prograis has never been stopped, is rarely hit cleanly and has only been beaten once there is some value in the market for him. A Prograis decision at 13/2 looks long and is well worth a punt for those fancying the upset. 

Fight Odds

Haney is a heavy favourite, and thus harder to find real big money bets for. Haney on points is a safe one at 2/5 but it might not set punter’s worlds alight. A stoppage looks a fool’s errand at 13/2 for Haney, considering he hasn’t finished an opponent inside the distance since 2019. 

Draw @ 14/1

The bravest betting can be had at 14/1 on the draw. It is not as crazy as it sounds given the combatants and the style match-up. This will be a fight of few clean punches and those are always open to interpretation when it comes to the judging. Given the speed on show, a lot can get lost in the flurries. Don’t be surprised to see the three scorers struggle to split these two come night’s end. If you don’t fancy the Prograis upset, this could be the next best thing in terms of bang for your buck.

If you’re hoping to put together an acca to carry you through the seasonal boxing schedule, Haney has to be on there. Beef up your odds there with the decision and watch the results roll in over the coming weeks. But if you want to go where the value really is, that draw is looking mightily attractive.

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