Bordeaux vs Harlequins Prediction: Bet the Over in France

The European Cup has reached the Quarter-Final stage and at 15:00 on TNT Sports, we have Harlequins making the trip over to France as heavy underdogs to beat Bordeaux, who are running at a 16.5 handicap in the betting.

Our Rugby Union tipster Alex Cox has swerved the match result market but has picked out his Best Bet for the match as part of his Bordeaux vs Harlequins predictions preview for us at Betfred Insights...

This Champions Cup Quarter Final tie really caught my eye when I saw the draw last week. Both sides have attacking, flowing rugby in their DNA, which sets up the opening game of the round perfectly. Neither side has yet to lift Champions Cup trophy, meaning I expect to see an extra level of motivation on display.

Although Bordeaux have been struggling in the Top 14, currently sitting in 6^th place, they have been extremely strong in Europe.

Across the 2 recent games vs Saracens, they outscored Sarries by an aggregated score of 100 points vs 27. Jalibert and Penaud being unavailable are losses, however the stand in replacements fit extremely well in the Bordeaux system. They are clearly prioritizing the Champions Cup this year and good luck to anyone willing to stand in their – and Ben Tameifuna’s - path.

Harlequins have never reached a Champions Cup Quarter-Final and are bringing a number of fans over the Channel in anticipation for a big day out. There is no doubt that Smith and Harlequins have the ability to cause damage to the Bordeaux defensive line, but it’s their own defensive line that has bigger question marks around it.

Quins have stepped off the gas mentally in a number of recent games and if that is replicated in The Stade de Bordeaux they will be in similar trouble to Saracens.

Given recent results, Harlequins are firm underdogs for this tie and it’s hard to envisage anything other than a Bordeaux win – however, I do think Harlequins will contribute to the score board and help to keep the points ticking over.

Prediction:  Over 57.5 @ 5/6

Team News: 

Bordeaux

The Bordeaux pack is daunting and they’ll be looking to take on Quins at the set-piece. Kaulashvili, Lamothe and Tameifuna make up the sizeable front-row, with Cazeaux and Aussie Coleman in the second-row. Mique, Samu and the youngster Tatafu will combine in the back-row.

Lucu is at scrum-half but the rumour mill was churning all week that Jalibert would be alongside him, however that’s not the case and instead Garcia continues after his Man of the Match award last week. Moefana and Depoortere make up an International capped center pairing. The other surprise is that Penaud was not named in the squad – although it seems there is a chance he could still feature. For now though, Bielle-Birarrey and Uberti take up the wing spots with Buros at full-back.

Harlequins

There is no Marler this week, meaning Baxter steps in one side of the scrum with Collier on the other. Walker continues his run at Hooker, with Launchbury and Lewies in the second-row. Newly capped England International Cunningham-South returns from injury to be on the flank, with the turnover-king Evans on the other side and Dombrandt at number 8.

Quins will need to fight this battle without their talisman Danny Care who’s not available this week. Instead, Will Potter steps up to fill his place, however it’s a tall ask. Marcus Smith continues at fly-half and there are no changes to the midfield with Esterhuizen and Beard chosen to start again. Murley and Lynagh will be on the wings and Green will be at full-back.

Bet reasoning

Although this is a large points line in the context of a Champions Cup Quarter Final, when you look at each side’s character traits, patterns of play and results, there is a strong argument for this game to tick over 60+ points on Saturday afternoon in the sunshine.

When Quins inevitably have a 20-minute implosion, they may well concede three quick tries, but don’t think for a second that they’ll like down meekly and accept defeat. Good conditions are forecasted, so we can certainly expect some running rugby on show.

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