Charles Schwab Challenge 2024 First Round Leader Tips: Back Tony to go low on Thursday

Jamie Worsley has already given us his Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Tips but he's also picked out three players who he expects to go low on Thursday, as well as a local Texan boy in the Top 20 market.

There’s still plenty of adverse weather in the forecast for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge, including in tomorrow’s opening round. However, there appears to be a small window of kinder conditions on Thursday morning and I’m hoping to take advantage of that to find this week’s first-round leader.

The early starters tomorrow are currently forecast to be teeing off in calm, trouble-free weather, with no rain and merely a gentle breeze. As rain arrives from around 10am onwards, potentially turning into thunderstorms in the afternoon, the wind is forecast to gradually increase and we could see gusts of 20mph+ for the latest starters.

There is the potential for the afternoon starters to be taken off the course if those thunderstorms materialise, meaning some may finish their first rounds on Friday morning. Although, with wind remaining strong into Friday – certainly stronger than Thursday morning at least – it would still put the second wave at a disadvantage.

With that I’m going to solely focus on the AM tee-times for first-round leader. In addition, there’s a long-odds Texan rookie who looks a good fit for this test, and can collect himself a top-20 finish this week.

1 pt Tony Finau each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 35/1

Start time: 07:55

I’m going to begin with Tony Finau, who arrives here off the back of his fastest start and strongest approach performance of the year in last week’s PGA Championship. As a former first-round leader here and possessing many low rounds at the course, he rates as a great chance to take advantage of his early tee-time and get off to a quick start at Colonial Country Club.

Finau has been starting solidly this year, ranking 43^rd in round one scoring but has rarely threatened the top of the leaderboard on the opening day, before last week. Though no match for Xander Schauffele, Finau’s 6-under 65 saw him sit 2^nd after 18 holes at Valhalla Golf Club, eventually going on to finish 18^th.

He was exceptional with his irons in that opening round and maintained it for the rest of the week, ranking 1^st in the field in approach and produced his best strokes-gained numbers of the season in that area.

Finau’s quality in approach has enabled him to forge a strong record in this event, recording five top-25s; of which his best efforts are a 2^nd-place finish in 2019 and he finished 4^th in 2022. Across those starts, he has fired countless rounds in the 60s, including opening that 2019 edition with a 6-under 64 to lead after round one. Something I’m hoping he can replicate this week.

1 pt Harris English each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 40/1

Start time: 08:06

Harris English is another player who arrives in Fort Worth following his strongest approach performance of the season last week. Though having never been first-round leader here, he often starts the event quickly and playing generally well in the first round this year, he can do so again this week.

English has looked good for most of the season and carried that over into our second major of the year last week, finishing 18^th. Whilst the putter was typically strong there, it was his approach performance that stood out, ranking 17^th, and in gaining 1.08 strokes per round, he produced his best iron display of the season; with his first-round number of +3 strokes-gained matching his best approach round of 2024.

That first-round approach performance helped him to sit 18^th after round one. This has been the theme of his starts throughout the majority of the season, where he’s only fired one over par opening round and has recorded first-round top-10s at the Sony Open and Arnold Palmer Invitational.

English has recorded two top-5s at Colonial CC, finishing 2^nd in 2016 and 5^th on debut in 2012. With such a strong record, it’s no surprise to see him possess many low rounds here but it is striking that he has sat 2^nd after the opening round on three occasions; doing so with opening rounds of 65 in 2012, 66 in 2014 and last year he opened with another 65 to sit 2^nd after 18 holes.

0.75 pts Cam Davis each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 70/1

Start time: 07:22

Cam Davis took a share of the FRL with an opening 66 here in 2022 and can make the most of his early start time to hit the front early again this week.

The Aussie is enjoying a solid year, where he has largely looked strong in approach. However, he does come into this week after missing the cut in last week’s PGA Championship. Although, he did tie for the lead here in round one in 2022 off the back of a non-contending 46^th-place finish in the PGA Championship, and again showed an ability to bounce back from major disappointments last year, shooting a 5-under 65 to sit 8^th after the opening round of the Travelers Championship following a missed cut in the US Open the previous week.

Davis is somewhat of an all-or-nothing type when it comes to the first round. He took the first-round lead with a superb 62 on his second start of the year in the Sony Open; three starts later he opened with a 65 in the Genesis Invitational to sit 2^nd; whilst four starts ago his 69 was enough to take him into 6^th spot after 18 holes at Augusta. Though in between all those starts are less inspiring opening efforts.

Having said that, he is much better when teeing off early, ranking 42^nd in early scoring as opposed to 180^th for late, meaning this often explosive scorer should relish his beneficial early tee-time.

1 pt Chandler Phillips Top 20 @ 8/1

Chandler Phillips has been enjoying a steady rookie season so far and as one of the strongest mid-iron players on tour, he can enjoy another positive week in his home state.

Phillips has missed just three cuts in 11 starts in 2024 and recorded four top-25s. I was quite taken with his excellent 3^rd-place finish at the Valspar Championship, which looks a strong comp course for Colonial.

He’s a usually straight driver and possesses a solid short game but there’s no doubt he excels in approach, ranking 40^th for the season. Furthermore, as the leading player on tour in approaches from 125-150 yards, he should enjoy attacking the greens this week.

Winning in The Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour at the start of last season, Phillips has shown an ability to perform in the wind and he can put that to good use this week to record another top-20 finish.

You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.