Charles Schwab Challenge 2024 Tips: 110/1 one of six for Texas

 | Tuesday 21st May 2024, 10:47am

Tuesday 21st May 2024, 10:47am

jamie worsley pga tour

After an enthralling PGA Championship which saw Xander Schauffele come out on top, we head to Fort Worth for the final leg of the Texas Swing.

Colonial Country Club is the venue this week, and below, you can find Jamie Worsley's predictions for the Charles Schwab Challenge 2024.

Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Tips

  • 1.25 pts Sepp Straka each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 45/1
  • 1.25 pts Tom Hoge each way (1/5- 6 places) @ 40/1
  • 1 pt Tom Kim each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 50/1
  • 1 pt Keegan Bradley each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 50/1
  • 1 pt Lucas Glover each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 60/1
  • 1 pt Emiliano Grillo each-way (1/5 - 8 places)@ 110/1

*Click on the linked odds to add the selections directly to your betslip on betfred.com (or app)

The bottler tag is one that is thrown around too much in professional sport, but regardless of where you stand on this in relation to Xander Schauffele, the manner of his victory in last week’s PGA Championship should’ve put any such thoughts to rest.

A week after being no match for Rory McIlroy at Quail Hollow, Xander showed no signs of hangover in Kentucky; opening with a superb 62 – tying the lowest ever round in a men’s major – to hit the front on day one.

Shooting a round of 68 in that surreal second round, Schauffele maintained his position at the top and with another 68 in round three, he entered Sunday's final round in a share of the lead, with fellow Californian, Collin Morikawa.

With a string of other challengers (aside from Morikawa) that included major winners, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Rose and Shane Lowry; along with major-champions-in-waiting, Sahith Theegala and the resurgent Viktor Hovland, many expected Schauffele to falter in his pursuit of a major breakthrough on Sunday.

He started the final round in fine fashion, firing four birdies on his front nine to move clear at the top. However, with DeChambeau and Hovland going with him, he wasn’t able to pull away and after a bogey at the 10th, it looked like developing into a shootout between the three on the back nine.

Though Schauffele bounced back from his bogey on 10 with two straight birdies, his two main challengers refused to relent, and after a hugely entertaining DeChambeau got up and down for birdie at the par 5 last, Xander needed a birdie of his own on 18 to stop the event going into extra holes.

After his tee-shot stopped just short of a fairway bunker, leaving him with a somewhat awkward stance, that birdie didn’t look a guarantee but he manufactured a great second shot to get within 40 yards of the green. A good pitch left him with a six-footer for birdie and though not hitting the centre of the cup, he held his nerve to claim a first major championship title – shaking that tag of “best player without a major win” in the process.

The majors keep coming thick and fast and it’s to Pinehurst for the US Open in a little over three weeks’ time. With the Canadian Open and Memorial Tournament to come over the next two weeks, we first head back to Fort Worth, Texas, for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Charles Schwab Challenge was first staged in 1946 and is one of the oldest continuing events on the PGA Tour. Every renewal has taken place here at Colonial Country Club, making it the longest-running course/tournament association on tour.

Nine-time major winner and former Fort Worth resident, Ben Hogan, won the first two renewals of this event in 1946 and 1947. Following further wins in 1952, 1953 and 1959, he set the record of five tournament wins that still stands today.

Hogan comfortably holds that record over a group of 10 players who have recorded two wins apiece. This includes Lee Trevino (1976, 1978), Corey Pavin (1985, 1996) and Phil Mickelson (2000, 2008).

Among other famous players to lift this trophy at Colonial Country Club are Sam Snead (1950), Arnold Palmer (1962), Jack Nicklaus (1982), Tom Watson (1998) and Jordan Spieth (2016).

Last five winners:

  • 2023 – Winner: Emiliano Grillo (-8, playoff); runner-up: Adam Schenk (-8)
  • 2022 – Winner: Sam Burns (-9, playoff); runner-up: Scottie Scheffler (-9)
  • 2021 – Winner: Jason Kokrak (-14); runner-up: Jordan Spieth (-12)
  • 2020 – Winner: Daniel Berger (-15, playoff); runner-up: Collin Morikawa (-15)
  • 2019 – Winner: Kevin Na (-13); runner-up: Tony Finau (-9)

Argentina’s Emiliano Grillo followed in the footsteps of compatriot Roberto De Vicenzo – the 1957 champion – by winning his second PGA Tour title at Colonial last year; beating Adam Schenk in a playoff, who was chasing his tour breakthrough.

Grillo returns to defend this week, aiming to become the first two-time winner since Zach Johnson in 2012, and the first since Hogan in 1953 to retain the title.

THE COURSE

Colonial Country Club was designed by the duo of John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell in 1936. Since the finish of last year’s event, the course has gone through an extensive renovation at the hands of Gil Hanse, with the aim of restoring the 1941 US Open venue to its original design.

Recent renovation

The most notable changes have come across the four par 3s. Greens were repositioned on the 8th and 16th holes to bring in more trouble for a miss to the left; bunkering was removed from the lengthy and difficult 4th; and the green was raised on the 13th hole.

Many of the elevated putting surfaces have been lowered to make them more in-tune with their surrounds and receptive, whilst natural-looking barrancas now line several fairways.

Some holes have also been lengthened. The par 4 7th now plays to 480 yards as opposed to 440 and the opening par 5 1st hole measures 581 yards, up from the 565 it has measured in previous years.

The course has historically provided one of the more demanding tests on tour – averaging a winning score of -12.7 over the last ten years – and it will be interesting to see whether these changes impact the way the course plays from this year onwards.

Course info

With those lengthened holes, the updated Colonial Country Club now measures 7289 yards; certainly not short for a par 70. There are 12x par 4s (385-480 yards), 4x par 3s (194-248 yards) and 2x par 5s (581-639 yards).

This traditional, flat, tree-lined course features bentgrass greens but bermudagrass fairways and rough. A strategic approach is a necessity here, with the mostly-doglegging fairways tight and smart strategic bunkering littering the landing areas to make them feel even tighter. Trees hug many fairways and can leave players with an impossible shot into the greens if missing on the wrong side.

The ball-striking challenge is as tricky as anywhere, with driving accuracy and greens-in-regulation percentages at Colonial regularly ranking among the lowest on tour.

The course rewards players who can shape the ball in each direction, both off-the-tee and into the small, subtly-undulating bentgrass greens. They’re set up to play a speedy 12-13 on the stimp and are tough to read.

Strong bunkering and tricky rough comes into play around them to offer protection, whilst many possess run-offs long, that lead into some tightly-mown collection areas.

Water is in-play on six holes, many of which congregate towards the end of the challenging finish.

The 15th hole is a left-to-right doglegging par 4, playing at 431 yards. Bunkers litter the angle of the fairway and surround the green, whilst there is creak left of the putting surface.

The 197-yard 16th is the final par 3 on the course and features water short and left, with three bunkers adding further protection.

Though not long, the final two par 4s are not without their challenges. The 399-yard 17th plays left-to-right and requires a drive into a narrow fairway, densely lined by trees. There is a barranca that is in-play aside both the fairway and the heavily-bunkered green.

Back in the other direction, the 442-yard 18th doglegs right-to-left. Most of the danger here comes on the left-hand side, with trees more populated on that side of the fairway and water sitting aside the slim green, which is well-bunkered short and drops off at the back.

It can be a difficult finish to navigate, especially with the title on the line on Sunday evening and I suspect there’ll be plenty of drama there again in this year’s renewal.

THE WEATHER

With temperatures at highs of around 35 degrees, hot and humid conditions will bring with them the threat of thunderstorms over the course of tournament week. Though dry on Monday/Tuesday, storms are forecast for Wednesday and possibly accompanied by some heavy rain, it could soften the course up.

This may continue into the first two rounds and with gusts of 30mph predicted, it has the potential to be a volatile week in Texas.

KEY STATS

  • SG: Approach
  • Greens-in-Regulation
  • Proximity 125-50/150-175

Strong iron play has always been key at Colonial and I expect it to be of significant importance again.

Emiliano Grillo ranked 6th in approach and 8th in greens-in-regulation when winning last year. He beat Adam Schenk in a playoff, who ranked 12th in approach and 3rd-place finisher, Scottie Scheffler was 1st in GIR and 4th in approach.

Sam Burns hit his irons well in 2022, ranking 7th in GIR and 12th in approach; five of that year’s top-10 ranked inside the top-10 in approach.

Jason Kokrak ranked 2nd in GIR and 8th in approach when leading home another leaderboard packed with quality iron play in 2021. Daniel Berger was 5th in approach and GIR when winning in 2020; whilst both Kevin Na and Justin Rose ranked 1st in each of those areas when recording their respective wins in 2019 and 2018.

Performing well with the mid irons is especially important to conquering this course, with approaches between 125-150 and 150-175 accounting for over 40% of approach distances in the last nine renewals.

  • SG: Off-the-Tee and/or Driving Accuracy

The need to be in control of the ball off-the-tee has meant quality driving has also been important down the years, and though not a short course, the requirement to find these fairways and position the ball smartly has allowed many short but accurate types to hold their own.

Emilano Grillo was a solid top-25 in driving accuracy when winning last year, as were Adam Schenk in 2nd and Harry Hall in T3. Though other 3rd-place finisher, Scottie Scheffler wasn’t quite as accurate, he combined reasonable accuracy with his length to rank 1st OTT.

Each of the top-3 in 2022 ranked top-7 OTT, with winner, Sam Burns ranking 6th. Scheffler finished 2nd that year and while himself and Burns were more powerful than accurate, Brendon Todd in 3rd ranked 1st in driving accuracy.

Jason Kokrak merged power with accuracy to rank 1st OTT when winning in 2021; Justin Rose in 2018 and Jordan Spieth in 2016 were top-6 with the driver when winning; and Kevin Kisner ranked 2nd in driving accuracy on his way to winning the title in 2017.

  • SG: Putting (bentgrass)

The putter has been a vital ingredient for victory in each of the last nine editions. Just one player – Justin Rose in 2018 – ranked outside the top-10 on the greens when they won, with Emiliano Grillo last year, Kevin Na in 2019 and Jordan Spieth in 2016 all ranking 2nd.

  • Par 4 Scoring

Finally, with just two par 5s (one at over 630 yards) and a set of four hard par 3s, the par 4s hold the key to unlocking Colonial Country Club. Although they are far from easy, nine of the 12 come in at under 460 yards – with two below 400 – and can be got at with high-quality ball-striking.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Valspar Championship (Innisbrook Resort – Copperhead Course)

With its tight, doglegging fairways that require a strategic approach, the Copperhead Course ranks as a similarly demanding ball-striking test to Colonial and can help us in our quest to find this week’s winner.

Notable correlating form:

Jordan Spieth:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / Valspar (1st)

Sam Burns:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / Valspar (1st, 1st)

Jason Kokrak:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / Valspar (2nd)

Kevin Na:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / Valspar (2nd)

Boo Weekley:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / Valspar (2nd)

Justin Rose:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / Valspar (5th, 5th)

Sean O’Hair:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd) / Valspar (1st, 2nd)

Adam Schenk:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd) / Valspar (2nd)

Charlie Wi:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd) / Valspar (4th)

Scott Stallings:

Charles Schwab Challenge (4th, 4th) / Valspar (3rd)

Adam Hadwin:

Charles Schwab Challenge (5th, 8th) / Valspar (1st, 5th)

Sony Open (Waialae Country Club)

Waialae Country Club is a similarly flat, tree-lined course where strongly-bunkered fairways are tough to find and further protected by tricky bermudagrass rough. As another course at which the mid-irons are important – especially between 150-175 yards – players who feel comfortable in approach there should be able to transfer it to Colonial.

Notable correlating form:

Kevin Na:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / Sony Open (1st)

Zach Johnson:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st, 1st) / Sony Open (1st)

Chris Kirk:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / Sony Open (2nd, 2nd)

Rory Sabbatini:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / Sony Open (2nd, 2nd)

Justin Rose:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / Sony Open (2nd)

Adam Scott:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / Sony Open (2nd)

Kevin Kisner:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / Sony Open (3rd, 4th, 4th, 5th)

Matt Kuchar:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd) / Sony Open (1st, 3rd)

Tim Clark:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd, 2nd) / Sony Open (2nd, 2nd)

Sean O’Hair:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd) / Sony Open (2nd)

Brandt Snedeker:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd) / Sony Open (2nd, 4th)

Harris English:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd) / Sony Open (3rd, 4th)

Ryan Palmer:

Charles Schwab Challenge (3rd, 5th, 5th) / Sony Open (1st, 4th)

Andrew Putnam:

Charles Schwab Challenge (3rd) / Sony Open (2nd, 4th)

St Jude Championship (TPC Southwind)

TPC Southwind is a par 70 of a similar length to Colonial CC, with doglegging, tree-lined fairways that require a strategic approach off-the-tee and often prove some of the most penal to miss on tour. Possessing a strong emphasis on approaches from 150-175 yards into the small putting surfaces, many players have enjoyed form across these two courses.

Notable correlating form:

Daniel Berger:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / St Jude (1st, 1st)

Sam Burns:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / St Jude (2nd)

Boo Weekley:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / St Jude (4th, 8th)

Harris English:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd) / St Jude (1st)

Brian Davis:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd) / St Jude (2nd)

Ryan Palmer:

Charles Schwab Challenge (3rd, 5th, 5th) / St Jude (3rd, 4th)

Andrew Putnam:

Charles Schwab Challenge (3rd) / St Jude (5th)

Scott Stallings:

Charles Schwab Challenge (4th, 4th) / St Jude (2nd)

Brian Harman:

Charles Schwab Challenge (7th, 8th, 10th) / St Jude (3rd, 6th)

RBC Heritage (Harbour Town Golf Links)

Tight, strategic and tree-lined with small greens are things which can be said to describe Harbour Town, and it’s these things that have no doubt contributed to the course developing strong form-ties with Colonial.

Notable correlating form:

Jordan Spieth:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / RBC Heritage (1st)

Boo Weekley:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / RBC Heritage (1st, 1st)

Zach Johnson:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st, 1st) / RBC Heritage (2nd)

Kevin Kisner:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / RBC Heritage (2nd)

Emiliano Grillo:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / RBC Heritage (2nd)

Daniel Berger:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / RBC Heritage (3rd)

Kevin Na:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / RBC Heritage (4th, 4th)

Matt Kuchar:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd) / RBC Heritage (1st, 2nd)

Brandt Snedeker:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd) / RBC Heritage (1st)

Brian Davis:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd) / RBC Heritage (2nd)

Sean O’Hair:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd) / RBC Heritage (6th, 7th)

Webb Simpson:

Charles Schwab Challenge (3rd, 5th) / RBC Heritage (1st, 2nd)

THE PLAYERS Championship (TPC Sawgrass)

While the green complexes and their surrounds are more demanding at TPC Sawgrass, the ball-striking test has many similarities. Tree-lined and well-bunkered fairways need to be navigated smartly to enable players to attack the small putting surfaces, with approaches from 125-175 yards commonplace.

Notable correlating form:

Adam Scott:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / PLAYERS Championship (1st)

Sergio Garcia:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / PLAYERS Championship (1st)

Zach Johnson:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st, 1st) / PLAYERS Championship (2nd)

Kevin Kisner:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / PLAYERS Championship (2nd, 4th)

Kevin Na:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / PLAYERS Championship (3rd, 6th)

Tim Clark:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd, 2nd) / PLAYERS Championship (1st)

Matt Kuchar:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd) / PLAYERS Championship (1st, 3rd)

Jason Dufner:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd, 2nd) / PLAYERS Championship (5th, 6th)

Webb Simpson:

Charles Schwab Challenge (3rd, 5th) / PLAYERS Championship (1st)

Brian Harman:

Charles Schwab Challenge (7th, 8th, 10th) / PLAYERS Championship (2nd, 3rd)

2020 & 2023 BMW Championship (Olympia Fields CC – North Course)

Olympia Fields is another par 70 and at 7366 yards, is at a similar length to Colonial Country Club. With narrow, doglegging, tree-lined fairways that are protected by bunkers, and small bentgrass greens into which approaches from 150-175 are hugely important, it can prove a good comp for this week.

Having only hosted two recent editions of the BMW Championship, we don’t have a tonne of comp form but there have been some performances of note.

Notable correlating form:

Jason Kokrak:

Charles Schwab Challenge (1st) / Olympia Fields (6th)

Tony Finau:

Charles Schwab Challenge (2nd, 4th) / Olympia Fields (5th)

Brendon Todd:

Charles Schwab Challenge (3rd, 5th) / Olympia Fields (8th)

Andrew Putnam:

Charles Schwab Challenge (3rd) / Olympia Fields (10th)

Brian Harman:

Charles Schwab Challenge (7th, 8th, 10th) / Olympia Fields (5th)

THE FIELD

After what had to be the most peculiar week of Scottie Scheffler’s career, I’m surprised to find him in this week’s field but the world #1 will play, coming in after finishing a remarkable 8th in the circumstances. Along with world #9, Collin Morikawa and #10, Max Homa, there are just three players from inside the world’s top-10 set to tee it up in Texas.

There is plenty of depth in the field, with an added 21 of the world’s top-50, including former winners, Jordan Spieth (2016) and Chris Kirk (2015).

We have eight past champions in total, with those two joined by last year’s winner, Emiliano Grillo; as well as Daniel Berger (2020), Justin Rose (2018), Adam Scott (2014), Zach Johnson (2010, 2012) and Rory Sabbatini (2007).

SELECTIONS

Charles Schwab Challenge Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main PGA Championship on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament

Market leaders: Scottie Scheffler 3/1, Collin Morikawa 14/1, Jordan Spieth 22/1, Max Homa 22/1, Tony Finau 33/1, Si Woo Kim 35/1

Scottie Scheffler was freakishly composed for the most part last week and with his superb record in this event, he’s going to be a tough nut to track. Although, the price holds little appeal and we’ll again attempt to get him beat.

I’m going to begin in the mid-range of the betting this week and though missing the cut when put up in the PGA Championship, the continued strength of Sepp Straka’s approach play has tempted me into giving him another shot this week.

1.25 pts Sepp Straka each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 45/1

Straka went into last week’s event in Kentucky having reeled off four top-20 finishes in a row and five in his last six starts, including top-10s in the RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo Championship. His ball-striking has been electric during this period and while missing the cut last week, he still looked strong in this area.

The Austrian was top-20 in both approach and greens-in-regulation across the first two rounds, replicating much of his recent play, ranking 2nd in this field in approach across his last 20 rounds and 11th off-the-tee. He’s the third-straightest driver on tour in 2024; is strong with the mid-irons, ranking 7th in approaches from 150-175; and as a competent bentgrass putter, he has an appealing collection of stats for this test.

Straka missed the cut on his first two starts in this event but was much improved when finishing 29th last year, where – like the previous two visits – he gained strokes on the greens. As a runner-up at TPC Southwind, as well as possessing two top-5 finishes in the RBC Heritage, his comp form is strong and gives me confidence he can step up his performance at Colonial Country Club again this year.

Sepp Straka e-w at 45-1

1.25 pts Tom Hoge each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 40/1

Tom Hoge has been enjoying a good season on tour thanks to his elite level of iron play. Which can finally take him to a contending performance in the Charles Schwab Challenge this week.

Hoge has made 15 solo starts on tour this season, recording eight top-25 finishes and missing just one cut. Two top-10s have come in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational; whilst last week he finished 23rd on his first major start of 2024.

It was no surprise to see that result largely engineered by his quality with the irons, ranking 12th in approach and 13th in GIR. These are areas in which he ranks 2nd and 24th on tour this season and as one of the strongest mid-iron players on tour, he has the arsenal in approach to tackle Colonial.

Hoge attended college here in Fort Worth and immediately took to this course, finishing 17th on debut in 2016. He hasn’t managed to replicate that across his last six starts here, but 3rd-place finishes in THE PLAYERS and Sony Open indicate he can go well again. Playing the best and most consistent golf of his career in 2024 he looks primed for a big performance this week.

Tom Hoge e-w at 40-1

1 pt Tom Kim each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 50/1

Though lacking fireworks, Tom Kim has looked perfectly solid in 2024 and based just a few miles east of here in Dallas, he can make use of home comforts to perform well on his debut at Colonial CC.

Kim has made 13 starts this year and recorded three top-25s, the latest of which came when 18th in the RBC Heritage four starts ago. He’s also hit the top-30 in the first two majors of the year, producing one of his most complete ball-striking performances of the year to finish 26th in last week’s PGA Championship.

The Korean’s approach play has been the standout area in previous years and whilst not quite as strong this season, there have been positives of late. He ranks 26th in approach in this field over his last 20 rounds and hit them well in the first three rounds last week, before then disappointing in the final round.

The mid-irons are a particular strength of his, ranking 7th in approaches from 125-150 yards and as an accurate driver and often strong bentgrass putter, as he showed in his two wins in the Shriners Open, he has the skillset to take to this event on his first try.

Kim’s short stint on tour so far means comp form isn’t abundant, but he has finished top-25 in each of his two visits to TPC Southwind. A 10th in last year’s BMW Championship at Olympia Fields is another indication that he can go well this week.

Tom Kim e-w at 50-1

1 pt Keegan Bradley each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 50/1

Keegan Bradley was among the best ball-strikers in the field last week and as a player who has often done his best work on the greens on bentgrass, he has the tools to perform well on this rare trip to Colonial CC.

Bradley ranked 4th in ball-striking as he recorded his second major top-25 of the season at Valhalla GC, finishing 18th. He’d been excellent in approach in prior weeks – ranking 3rd in this week’s field over the last 20 rounds – and whilst he again hit his irons well, it was the quality of the driver that stood out, as he ranked 1st off-the-tee and produced his best strokes-gained number of the year.

The strength of his iron play has been on show throughout the year, as he ranks 18th in approach and 20th in GIR. In addition, he’s been one of the best mid-iron players on tour, especially excelling in that 150-175 range, ranking 2nd.

He was much improved with the putter in the last two years, often looking at his best on bentgrass surfaces. Whilst not quite as strong on the greens in 2024, he has put up positive displays in both of his starts on this surface, ranking 18th on the difficult greens at Augusta.

Indeed, Bradley ranked 13th on the greens here at Colonial on his previous visit in 2020, finishing 32nd. That was only his second start at the course after missing the cut on debut in 2016. This leaves us with a small sample-size of what he can do at the course but as a runner-up at the Valspar in 2021 and Sony Open earlier this year, I’m confident he has the game to handle the demands of this venue.

Keegan Bradley e-w at 50-1

1 pt Lucas Glover each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 60/1

Lucas Glover has been sneakily good all year and with him now starting to show signs of getting the putter back under control, this looks a good spot for him to notch another PGA Tour victory.

Glover has made 13 starts this year and missed two cuts, but has seen all of his best results come over his last six starts. He has made every cut in that period, and hit the top-25 on four occasions, recording a best finish of the year when 11th in the Valspar Championship. In addition, he’s made the cut in each of the two majors, finishing 20th at Augusta and 43rd last week.

By any time-frame, he ranks among the best tee-to-green players on tour. Whether that being ranking 6th in this field over his last 20 rounds or 11th on tour for the season as a whole. His irons have been a standout, also ranking 11th and perhaps more importantly he’s been superb with the mid-irons, ranking 6th from 125-150 yards and 11th from 150-175.

Combine that with his rankings of 6th in driving accuracy and 13th in par 4 scoring, along with his improved putting – which saw him produce a best putting display of the season on the bentgrass surfaces at Augusta four starts ago, ranking 11th – and there is little not to like about his chances from a statistical point of view.

Glover has played here many times, often solidly, though his best effort did come two starts ago, when finishing 8th in 2021. As a winner of the St Jude last year, and possessing top-5s in THE PLAYERS, Valspar Championship and Sony Open, his comp form stacks up strongly and leads me to believe he has an even better performance in him at this course.

Lucas Glover e-w at 60-1

1 pt Emiliano Grillo each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 110/1

Emiliano Grillo’s form figures over the last couple of months don’t read overly well but they are somewhat deceptive, and with his approach play still looking strong over this period, the defending champion looks a big price for a repeat success this week.

Grillo started the season strongly, picking up two top-10s, five top-25s and missing zero cuts across his first eight starts. He has missed two of his last five cuts and failed to break into the top-50 in the other three but each of those starts have come in elite fields.

The two missed cuts came in the two majors and the other three starts came in THE PLAYERS and two Signature Events: the RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo Championship. I’m hoping he will appreciate this drop into relatively calmer waters and feed off the positive memories from his victory here last year.

The Argentinian has maintained strong form in approach over that period, ranking 33rd in this field over the last 20 rounds and we’re able to see why he has such a strong record in this event when looking at the strength of his mid-irons, ranking 4th from 150-175 on tour in 2024. As a straight hitter and much improved putter in recent years, his all-round game fits this challenge like a glove.

Prior to winning here last year, Grillo had missed just one cut in seven starts at Colonial and twice hit the top-10 previously, finishing 3rd in 2018 and 8th in 2021; more often than not looking very comfortable on these greens. A strong record at Harbour Town, which includes a runner-up finish in 2021, is another plus and makes his price look even more attractive this week.

Emiliano Grillo e-w at 110-1

You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.

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