West Ham vs Liverpool Prediction: Paqueta can cause panic in Reds ranks

Saturday's Premier League lunchtime kick-off (12:30, TNT Sports 1) features two clubs, West Ham United and Liverpool, who are probably just counting down the days until the season concludes. It's been a miserable April so far for both sides - the Irons have won just one of their six games during the month and have been knocked out of the Europa League alongside the Reds, who have also dropped out of league title contention after dropping eight points.

Despite the downbeat start, I'm hoping to bring some life to the game at the London Stadium in my West Ham vs Liverpool prediction below, where I put forward a couple of betting tips alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

Speculation continues to swirl around the future of West Ham boss David Moyes, who looks increasingly likely to depart the Irons at the end of the season. Ardent proponents of the Scot will point to the Europa Conference League title he delivered last season and the regular European jaunts their supporters have enjoyed, but there's no getting away from recent poor results and the often turgid style of play.

European qualification via the league isn't completely off the table, but with just four games remaining and teams above them having played fewer, it appears rather unlikely, and the main focus is on ensuring their position in the top 10 and restoring confidence after last Sunday's 5-2 pummelling at the hands of Crystal Palace.

Liverpool suffered an embarrassment of their own in the city on Wednesday as they were beaten 2-0 by Everton in the Merseyside derby, a result which leaves them lagging behind Arsenal and Manchester City in the Premier League title race.

In truth, they are out of the running, and all that's left is to mathematically confirm third place.

Team News

Jarrod Bowen, West Ham's leading scorer in the Premier League with 15 goals this season, remains sidelined through injury, while teenager George Earthy continues to follow concussion protocols following the head injury he sustained against Fulham earlier this month.

Defenders Nayef Aguerd and Konstantinos Mavropanos could return to the squad after both sat out against Palace, and one of them is likely to replace veteran Angelo Ogbonna, who was hooked at half-time at Selhurst Park.

After a positive performance in a 3-1 win at Fulham last Sunday, Liverpool's Merseyside derby preparations were dealt a huge blow by news of an injury sustained by Diogo Jota at Craven Cottage. The Portuguese attacker missed the midweek trip to Goodison Park and will miss out again this weekend.

Cody Gakpo should return to the starting XI, though, after he was absent on Wednesday due to his partner going into labour.

Luis Diaz was Liverpool's only bright spark against the Toffees and surely only a fitness concern would deprive him of another start on Saturday. Therefore, Gakpo is more likely to replace Darwin Nunez, who continues to flounder in front of goal.

Mohamed Salah can't escape criticism, either, and he will be lucky to get the nod from the start at the London Stadium.

Joe Gomez, Wataru Endo, Harvey Elliott and Ryan Gravenberch are all potential starters as Klopp looks to inject some energy into a tired-looking side.

It wouldn't be a shock to see the German hand starts to teenagers Bobby Clark and Jayden Danns, either.

Match Odds

West Ham are 4/1 to beat Liverpool for the first time since November 2021, giving them an implied win probability of 20%, while Liverpool's chances are rated at 66.7% with odds of 1/2.

Betfred will be Top Price or joint Top Price on Liverpool to beat West Ham with selected bookmakers using oddschecker.com for the comparison (Available from 09:30 Saturday).

The draw can be backed at 16/5, both teams to score at 1/2 and over 2.5 goals at 2/5.

Lucas Paqueta 1+ shots on target @ 2/1

I backed Fulham to hit at least five shots on target against Liverpool last Sunday at odds of 5/4 and it was a winner as the Cottagers struck that exact number.

After Wednesday, when Everton had six shots on target, the Reds have now conceded six, five, five, and five in their last four league games.

Once again, I am looking to the shots on target market for a team at home against Liverpool, but this time I'm opting for a singular player - Lucas Paqueta - to trouble the Reds goal.

The Brazilian playmaker opened the scoring in this fixture last season and has eight goals for the Hammers this season, four of which have come in the Premier League.

Paqueta has had at least one shot on target in four of his previous seven league outings, registering five across that period and scoring twice, one of which was a penalty.

With Bowen still out injured, the onus is on the 26-year-old, alongside Mohammed Kudus and Michail Antonio, to step up in front of goal.

Against a leaky Reds backline, I think he can at least trouble Alisson Becker with a shot on target.

Wataru Endo to be carded @ 3/1

The Japan international has had an encouraging debut season at Liverpool and played the full 90-plus minutes at Craven Cottage last weekend before being demoted to the bench on Wednesday.

Endo should returning to the starting XI at the London Stadium, which makes the 3/1 price of him receiving a card an enticing one.

The 31-year-old has been booked eight times in 25 Premier League appearances this season and is a persistent fouler in the middle of midfield.

He only came on for the last half hour against Everton but managed to make a couple of fouls, and he conceded three free-kicks in his last start at Fulham.

Endo averages 1.6 fouls per game in the league and those types of numbers, coupled with his yellow card tally this term, mark him out as a strong candidate to be booked on Saturday, especially with the trickery of Paqueta and Kudus in the opposition's attack.

Place an In-Play bet of £10 or more (odds of 1/2+) on any Premier League or Championship game on Saturday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Sunday’s Premier League games. (Credited by 12:00 Sunday).

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.